* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Macroeconomics - WordPress.com
Survey
Document related concepts
Ragnar Nurkse's balanced growth theory wikipedia , lookup
Economics of fascism wikipedia , lookup
Full employment wikipedia , lookup
Steady-state economy wikipedia , lookup
Non-monetary economy wikipedia , lookup
Economic democracy wikipedia , lookup
Production for use wikipedia , lookup
Edmund Phelps wikipedia , lookup
Economic calculation problem wikipedia , lookup
Austrian business cycle theory wikipedia , lookup
Early 1980s recession wikipedia , lookup
Transformation in economics wikipedia , lookup
Post–World War II economic expansion wikipedia , lookup
Keynesian economics wikipedia , lookup
Transcript
Macroeconomics: a general view for non-economists The base of this presentation it’s: MACROECONOMÍA: BREVE HISTORIA Y CONCEPTOS BÁSICOS Félix Jiménez http://www.pucp.edu.pe/economia/pdf/DDD171.pdf Prof. Carles Manera [email protected] Professor Carles Manera 1 Definition • Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that studies the behavior of the economy as a whole. For this reason, it coincides with the birth of economic science itself. But also , macroeconomics incorporated as part of its subject analysis of the effects of government policies on the variables : production, employment levels , inflation, trade deficit , etc. Professor Carles Manera 2 History of Macroeconomics • The history of Macroeconomics is the history of economic science, although it is true that in most textbooks, the birth of the so-called Modern Macroeconomics is identified with the date of publication, 1936, of the General Theory of Employment , Interest and Money by John Maynard Keynes. • Readers should know, however, that economic science, from Smith and Ricardo classic, late eighteenth century and early nineteenth century, it was born having as object of study the behavior of the economy as a whole. But there are precursors of this economic science, prior to the classics, of course, both on the side of its subject and by the side of the analysis method used. For example, William Petty in his book Political Arithmetick (1665) proposes to study only systematic or regular phenomena, and not transient phenomena, to understand the behavior of the economic system as a whole. This was the long-term method adopted after the Classical and Neoclassical. Professor Carles Manera 3 Classical economics • The classical economists Adam Smith and David Ricardo, do not change the method or the object of study, but are the first to build a strong analytical body to explain the workings of the capitalist economy, certainly much more industrialized. It is no coincidence that the birth of the modern economy is associated with his most important works: Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1776) and Principles of Political Economy and Taxation (1817), respectively. • Smith believed that the main condition for the growth of the real wealth of a country was improving labor productivity and, ultimately, this productivity depends on the degree of division of labor and, therefore Extension market. With the division of labor increases workers' skills and technical progress it is stimulated. But this division of labor, Smith says, is limited by the size of the market and consequently its intensification and extension will only be possible in an expanding market. This is his theory of the virtuous circle of growth or cumulative causation linked to manufacturing (Kaldor, 1966). Professor Carles Manera 4 Smith-Ricardo • Leaving aside the differences between Smith and Ricardo , we can say that the purpose of so-called theoretical body classic was to explain the way the market economic system solves the problems of production , distribution and technology and social organization of these processes . The relevance of this purpose was based on the conviction that the market economic system had certain regularities from which it could make him a graspable object of analysis , so as to infer general propositions about its operation . For the classics, those regularities which avoided caos-- , were associated with the process of competition between capitalists ; process that led both technological innovations and productivity gains , as the equalization of the rate of profit in the different economic activities ( Eatwell , 1983). Professor Carles Manera 5 Smith’s proposals • Smith was referring to the competition process that continuously established the "natural" (or production in the terminology of Ricardo) price as the law of supply and demand or the invisible hand of the market. In contrast to this classical approach is developed in the late nineteenth century, the neoclassical theory of curves determined by supply and demand prices. And how are you supply and demand curves are established as functional relationships between prices and quantities at the microeconomic level, the pricing, product, employment and income distribution is carried out simultaneously in all markets. Tastes and consumer preferences, technology and factor endowments, are the data of neoclassical theory, as will be understood, it makes full employment a feature of the general economic equilibrium of the markets. Compare these data with those of the classical theory of prices: size and composition of the product, technology and real wage rate. Professor Carles Manera 6 Neoclassical theory • The neoclassical theory of demand and supply is the synthesis of the theories of marginal utility and marginal productivity developed by W. S. Jevons (1835-1882), A. Marshall (1842-1924), C. Menger (1840-1921), F. von Wieser (1851-1926) and E. Bohm Bawerk (18511914) L. Walras (1834 -1910), among others, during the first great crisis of capitalism that began in the first half of the decade of the 70s of the nineteenth century and, coincidentally, during the years of emergence of monopolistic and oligopolistic capitalism. This synthesis is performed by K. Wicksell in his book Lectures on Political Economy, published in 1901, and the first volume presents the content of what later became known as micro-economic theory. It is important to mention here that during the period in which it develops the marginal neoclassical theory (also the economic theory of imperialism) until the outbreak of World War I, the gold standard was the currency or monetary system in which they are based international relations between Overseas countries. Professor Carles Manera 7 The importance of Marshall • With the content neoclassical economic theory changed. This no longer consisted in analyzing the behavior of the economy as a whole or analysis, according to the classical economists, the effects of the contradictions between the economic interests of walks on the process of capitalist accumulation and distribution, but in the study of the microeconomic foundations of price formation. With the neoclassic also he disappeared concern for social accounting of production flows, expenses and income aggregates, as well as analysis of the effects of policies on these flows for certain periods. Although Marshall considered the science of economics as a continuation of the ideas expressed by Adam Smith (thus contributing to the error of JM Keynes considered "classics" all the economists who preceded him), Smith's conception of the division of labor and growth as a macroeconomic phenomenon, not confined to a particular sector or production process is the basis of the theory of endogenous growth driven by technological change and growth of effective demand (Kaldor, 1966; Hicks, 1992). Professor Carles Manera 8 The Great Depression • The first decades of the twentieth century were not sustained growth of the capitalist economy and stability . After the First World War , European economies with floating exchange rate regime and free movement of capital , were hit by rampant inflation processes and acute financial problems. The return to the gold standard in the mid twenties did not prevent the crisis. The second major crisis of capitalism broke out in 1929, the year in which the long period known as the Great Depression began . For 10 years the average unemployment rate in the US was nearly 20 % and production was consistently well below its productive potential . In this period of unemployment and recession, J.M. Keynes develops and publishes , in 1936 , his book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money , now identified as the origin of modern macroeconomics . Professor Carles Manera 9 The demand • • Keynes's ideas are radically opposed to those of neoclassical economists. For him the capitalist economy with free markets does not tend to full employment. The unemployment is involuntary workforce. Accordingly, to achieve stable economic progress and full utilization of productive resources, the capitalist economy must and should be regulated. Keynes proposed the active participation of the state in achieving national goals, among which was central to the full employment of the labor force. On the other hand, unlike the classics argued that clung to Say's law or the idea that every supply creates its own demand, Keynes argues that aggregate demand that determines production and not vice versa. This proposal follows that investment generates its own savings. This is the core of his theory of effective demand. The classics had no theory of investment-savings ratio, but neither held as neoclassical, the existence of a trade-off between investment and savings. the preference for liquidity, the marginal efficiency of capital, liquidity trap, wealth effect or Pigou effect, expectations, the marginal propensity: the work of Keynes concepts that are now common in the books of Macroeconomics are introduced to consume and the multiplier. Professor Carles Manera 10 Keynes and Hicks • Keynes 's contribution was so important for the development of macroeconomics that justice is talk of a Keynesian Revolution . The so-called Keynesianism is constructed and disseminated by integrating the ideas of Keynes 's ideas eleven neoclassic on the determinants of savings and money demand . This integration , later called neoclassical synthesis was performed by J. R. Hicks in his article "Mr. Keynes and the Classics : a Suggested Interpretation "published in 1937. With this article Hicks first introduced the IS- LM model of interaction between monetary and real markets , which later became the centerpiece of the so-called Keynesian consensus the second postwar period. Professor Carles Manera 11 Keynesian consensus • The Keynesian consensus lasted from the end of World War II until the early years of the 1970s the dominant monetary regime during this period was known Bretton Woods system characterized by adjustable exchange rate regimes under specific conditions, for the acceptance of controls to limit international capital flows and the presence of the IMF in charge of monitoring the macroeconomic and finance the balance of payments of countries in crisis policies. There was agreement, throughout this period, state intervention in the economy to reduce unemployment and stabilize prices by regulating aggregate demand. It is no coincidence then that the argument between Keynesians and monetarists has focused on the instrumental aspects of this intervention, ie in the prevalence or otherwise of fiscal policy on monetary policy. The nature of the dispute was recently modified to mid-1970s, when collapsing the Bretton Woods system, inflation accelerates in developed capitalist countries and the conventional policy to control stops succeed. The unresolved inflation, he added Keynesian remedy stagnation, leading to the phenomenon known as stagflation. Given the evident failure of Keynesian policies, there was a return to free market orthodoxy in a context of flexible currency regimes and free movement of capital. Professor Carles Manera 12 Monetarism • The fundamentals of Monetarism or Friedmaproposition inflation as a purely monetary phenomenon , found in his earlier works : Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money ( 1956) and A Monetary History of the United States : 1867-1960 (1963 ) . "Inflation occurs Friedman says , when the amount of money increases faster than goods and services; the greater the increase in the amount of money per unit of output , the inflation rate is higher. Probably it does not exist in the economy a proposition as well established as this " ( M. Friedman , Milton and R. Friedman , 1980 , p. 353 ) . Professor Carles Manera 13 Debate • • • • The debate originated with Friedman's work Keynesians in the 1960s, focused on three issues: 1. The dilemma between the use of fiscal policy or monetary policy. Keynesians They are betting on the first and the second monetarists. The discussion goes back to the explanation of the Great Depression of the 1930s For the Keynesians this was caused by insufficient demand, while for the monetarists was due not to a limited state spending, but a failure its function of controlling the amount of money: the monetary contraction decreed by the Federal Reserve of the United States. 2. The Phillips curve was the second point of debate between Keynesian and Monetarist. Friedman argues that long term there is no trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Consequently, for him the interaction between real and nominal variables, important element of the corpus of Keynesian theory, is only a short-term phenomenon. 3. Discretion versus policy rules. Monetarists criticized the discretionary use of economic policies and called for the establishment of rules. The conclusion is that economic policy Friedman in the presence of flexible prices and wages, the state administration of aggregate demand, or state intervention in the economy, is counterproductive. Friedman's proposal is a consistent monetary policy rule in fixing the rate of money growth in line with the trend rate of growth of real output of the economy. Professor Carles Manera 14 New debate • In the period between the late 1960s and early 1970s, the so-called revolution of rational expectations occurs in the field of macroeconomics, with the work of Robert Lucas, Thomas Sargent, Robert Barro and Neil Wallace . Precisely in this period the Golden Age ends and the Bretton Woods system of postwar capitalism , and begins his third major crisis whose duration exceeds two decades (Madison , 1991). The international economy is more integrated commercial and financially , and moves toward new technological standards and information. National markets open, but the structures of these markets are more concentrated and oligopolized . Moreover, as Hobsbawm (1996 ) points out, the problems that the Golden Age was removed by a generation , reappeared after 1973 : massive unemployment , severe recessions , poverty and instability. Professor Carles Manera 15 The New Macroeconomics • There are three basic tenets of the New Macroeconomics "Classical": • 1. The relationship between real and nominal macroeconomic aggregates is given by unexpected changes of the latter. Given an economic structure, the behavior of agents (based on rational forecasts, and thus correct, of relevant variables) generates only real production levels, employment and in the unemployment rate they are called natural. Fifteen • 2. Agents use in their favor all relevant and available for making economic decisions. An error due to a poor prognosis is so expensive that hardly repeats. Therefore, the possibility of systematic errors in the behavior of economic agents is excluded (their expectations are rational). • 3. Agents are optimizers in the micro sense, they seek always maximize profits. This assumption implies that any perturbation to the system disappear during the process leading to equilibrium. Professor Carles Manera 16 New Synthesis • The intense debate over the last two decades seems to have produced , according to Olivier Blanchard , a more or less uniform consensus that some economists are calling : "New Keynesian Synthesis - New Classic " . According to Blanchard (1997 ) and accepted theoretical issues that characterize this consensus would be: " ( 1) In the short term , changes in aggregate demand affect the product . ( 2) Expectations play a decisive role in the behavior of the economy. ( 3) In the long run the product returns to its natural level. (4 ) Monetary policy affects output in the short and medium term but not in the long run. (5) Fiscal policy has effects both short and long term " (Blanchard , 1997 , pp . 620-21 . Free translation ) . Professor Carles Manera 17 Flow variables and variables of Stock • Flow variables : those whose magnitudes are measured as a rate per unit time . They have temporal dimension. Examples : investment per year , changes in the amount of money per week , output per quarter , national income generated in 1998 , annual government spending, etc. • Stock variables : those whose magnitudes are measured at a given point in time. They lack temporal dimension. Examples: the capital stock of the economy in 1998 , the number of hotels in Lima in 1997 , total gold holdings of the Central Reserve Bank , the amount of money in December 1990 , etc. Professor Carles Manera 18 Production and business cycle • • • • The Great Depression of the 1930s caused production and employment turned into the most important variables study of Macroeconomics. For ten years the domestic production of goods and services of the United States was consistently well below its productive potential and the average unemployment rate in the economy was almost 20%. This situation of recession and high unemployment was more or less widespread in all advanced capitalist countries and, therefore, the need to examine their determinants and identify solutions to avoid their adverse economic and social effects was evident. After World War II, fluctuations or production cycles resulted in the incorporation of fine tunning with policies aimed at easing its effects on the welfare of the population. During the postwar period there were four short but important recessions: in 1948-49, in 1953-54, in 1957-58 and in 1960-61. What is a recession? To answer this question rigorously we must define first what is the economic cycle. All aggregate variable can be decomposed into two parts: the trend (τt) and the cycle (ct). If we call a time series yt actual value of the product (or product at constant prices), we have the following equation: The trend (τt) is the long-term component of real aggregate output variable and the cycle (ct) is the difference between the observed values of this variable and its trend, ie is your short-term component. Due to the presence of the latter component, we can say that the above equation contains the concept of cycle of aggregate precisely is known as the business cycle production. "An economic cycle consists of expansions occurring at the same time in the various branches of economic activity, followed by recessions and recoveries ... which result in the expansion phase of the next cycle." (Burns and Mitchell, 1946, p . 3). Professor Carles Manera 19 The economic cycle consists of the following phases: • 1. Recession or contraction . It is defined as a reduction or drop in production aggregate and is the phase between a peak of the cycle and a bottom of the cycle. • 2. Background. It is the lowest point of the fall in production . • 3. Expansion. It is when the product begins to rise maintaining a growing trend which continues until the next summit. This phase is between the bottom and the next peak of the economic cycle • 4. The highest point reached by the real aggregate output in each economic cycles . Professor Carles Manera 20 Unemployment • Together with variations of the actual aggregate output variations is studied employment. Economic downturns affecting the population directly through layoffs and , therefore , generating unemployment. But unemployment can also be the result of the inability of the economy to grow while absorbing the entire workforce that regularly enter the labor market. • Unemployment is defined as a situation in which a fraction of the people who are part of the population of working age (or economically active population ) are looking for work and can not find it . L Let's call the total workforce ; E, to the part of the workforce is employed ; and D to the population that can not find work . So: L=E+D Professor Carles Manera 21 Okun • The negative relationship between the rate of output growth and the change in the unemployment rate is known as Okun's law . It was identified and performed in the 1960s by economist Arthur Okun , the Head of the Economic Team of President Lyndon B. Johnson seasoning. • Okun found that the decline in the unemployment rate of 1 % of the workforce of the United States was associated with great regularity to increase the Gross National Product of 3% , and therefore a fall in the output gap ( Okun , 1962 ) . Professor Carles Manera 22 Inflation • The second important variable studied macroeconomics is inflation or rate growth in prices. The post-war reconstruction and recovery in the United States was characterized generally by a decrease in the unemployment rate and a significant price stability. This was the period in which they were developed and widely disseminated macroeconomic models with fixed prices. But since the late 1950s, when inflation recurrent episodes are made, albeit moderately, incorporating inflation in models reframe the debate and the role of macroeconomic policies. In the second half of the 1960s the persistent increases in the price level become more serious. Are the years in which the controversy between Keynesians and monetarists develops. • Inflation is raising the aggregate price level of an economy. It is measured as the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is a index constructed from a representative basket of consumption, a period known as the base period or base year. Professor Carles Manera 23 Hyperinflation • When the monthly inflation rate exceeds 50% a situation known as Hyperinflation occurs . Hyperinflations are extremely rare and are usually associated with wars or natural disasters phenomena. The best known cases are those of Russia ( December 1921 - . Jan 1924 . ), Germany ( Aug, 1922 - Nov. 1923) , Hungary ( Jun . 45 - Jul. 46) (See Cagan , 1967 , and Sargent, 1982 ) . The growth rates in prices during the hyperinflation are enormous. For example , during (the highest ever) Hungarian hyperinflation average monthly inflation rate of 19,800 % !. Professor Carles Manera 24 Philips • The search for the explanation of inflation led to the empirical verification of the existence of an inverse relationship between the rate of change of money wages and the unemployment rate of the labor force . This empirical research, covering information of the British economy for a period of nearly a century , was made by AW Phillips , Professor at the London School of Economics , and published in 1958. Since then , the Phillips Curve , as he he called this relationship , became one of the most important tools of macroeconomic analysis . Professor Carles Manera 25 Fiscal deficit • The fiscal deficit is another variable studying macroeconomics. The purpose of at the same time maintaining low unemployment and stable prices became increasingly difficult because, as the finding of the Phillips curve, the same forces that reduce driving unemployment higher prices. These forces are associated with fiscal spending deficit. • The fiscal deficit is the surplus government spending on total income. When revenues are greater than expenses, the public sector is in surplus. Expenses are of two types: current expenses and capital expenditures. Current expenditures are all non-recoverable payments. Overall payments are wages, purchases of goods and services, interest payments on domestic and external debt. Capital expenditures are those incurred in the acquisition and installation of durable goods associated with investment projects. Government revenues also come from two sources: current income and capital income. Current revenues are tax and non-tax revenues. Capital revenues come from investments. Professor Carles Manera 26 Types of deficit • There are two types of measurements government deficit: the primary deficit and the economic deficit. The primary deficit does not include financial expenses in total expenditures. The economic result is equal to the primary outcome plus the balance between capital income and capital expenses. • What is the relationship between the fiscal deficit and the economic cycle ?. In the expansionary phase of the economy, improving tax revenues, should reduce the deficit. It is assumed, of course, that the magnitude of tax collection usually depends directly growth of the economy. If such a decline occurs, the fiscal deficit would be a variable counter-cyclical. Professor Carles Manera 27 External deficit • Another variable related to the development of the economy is the balance of the balance of payments and in particular trade balance. Modern economies today are more commercially and financially integrated. The world's economies are more interdependent. Just as we need to buy computers, televisions, and machinery that we do not produce, other countries need minerals or fish. A purchase or sale of goods between countries is called international trade. This is developed through exports (products and services we sell) and imports (goods and services we buy). At net exports of goods and services imports of goods and services, it is called Trade Balance and is one of the most important concepts of the balance of payments of a country. Professor Carles Manera 28 Static and dynamic models • • • • Models can be static and dynamic. That is, they can be models with or without temporal dimension. The static model has no time horizon. Both models have equilibrium solutions and must meet certain conditions of stability or convergence to equilibrium. The balance is defined as a situation in which there are no pressures or forces that cause a change in the model variables. The balance may be stable or unstable. It will be stable if after a movement occur in one or more of the exogenous variables, the equilibrium is restored. If the system does not return to equilibrium, then it is unstable. If a static model is stable, then, they can be studied the effects of changes in exogenous variables on the equilibrium values of endogenous variables. If unstable, this analysis does not make sense. In macroeconomics it is often called Static comparison to the study of these effects, ie the comparison of two situations produced static equilibrium after a disturbance. A model is static if the component variables are contemporary (no time dimension). This implies that the model solution will be maintained while the values of exogenous variables do not change. A model is dynamic if you set intertemporal relationships among variables. Therefore, the equilibrium solution model is a function of time. This solution is called dynamic equilibrium. Professor Carles Manera 29 Bibliography • • • • • • • • • • • • • • ACKLEY, Garder 1964 Teoría Macroeconómica. UTEHA. BARRO, Robert 1986 Macroeconomía. Mac Graw Hill. BERCK, Peter y Knut SYDSAETER 1997 Formulario para Economistas. Antoni Bosch Ediciones. BLANCHARD, Olivier 1997 Macroeconomics. Prentice Hall. BREMS, Hans 1986 Pioneering Economic Theory, 1630-1980. The Johns Hopkings University Press. BURNS, Arthur y MITCHELL, Wesley 1946 Medición de los ciclos económicos. NBER. CAGAN, Phillip 1956 The monetary dynamics of hiperinflation. En FRIEDMAN, Milton. Studies on the quantity theory of money. University of Chicago Press. CANTILLON, Richard. 1950 Ensayo sobre la naturaleza del comercio en general. México, Fondo de Cultura Económica. CHIANG, Alpha C. 1984 Fundamental Methods of Mathematical Economics, Tercera Edición, McGraw-Hill Book Company DAGUM, Camilo y Estela BEE DE DAGUM 1997 Introducción a la econometría. Siglo XXI editores, 5ta. Edición. EATWELL, John 1983 “The long period theory of employment”. En Cambridge Journal of Economics. EKELUND, Robert y Robert HEBERT 1995 Historia de la teoría económica y de su método. 3era. Ed. Mac Graw Hill. FERGUNSON, John 1971 Historia de la Economía. Fondo de Cultura Económica Professor Carles Manera 30 Bibliography • • • • • • • • • • • • • FIGUEROA, Adolfo 1993 “Estática y dinámica en el análisis económico”. En Economía, Vol. 16, No. 32. FRIEDMAN, Milton 1968 “The Role of Monetary Policy” En American Economic Review. 1965 The Quantity of theory of money: a restatement. En Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money. Chicago Press. FRIEDMAN, Milton y Rose FRIEDMAN 1983 Libertad de Elegir. Ediciones Orbis. FRIEDMAN, Milton y Anna Schwartz. 1963 A monetary history of the United States: 1867-1960, Princeton University Press. GANDOLFO, Giancarlo 1996 Economics Dynamics. 3era. Edición. Springer. HICKS, John 1992 The unification of macroeconomics. En VERCELLI, A. y DIMITRI, N. Macroeconomics: a survey of research strategies, Oxford University Press. 1937 “Mr. Keynes and the classics: a suggested interpretation”. En Econometrica, abril. HOBSBAWM, Erik 1996 The Age of Extremes. A history of the world, 1914-1991. Nueva York. HUME, David 1752 Political Discourses, Edinburgh. Reimpreso en Essays--Moral, Political, and Literacy, London 1875. Professor Carles Manera 31 Bibliography • KALDOR, Nicholas 1966 Causes of the slow rate o the economic growth of the United Kingdom. Cambridge University Press. • KEYNES, J.M. • 1936 The General Theory of employment, interest and money. London, Macmillan. 1960 “The relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of money wages rates in the United Kingdom 1861-1957 : A further analysis” En Economica . LUCAS, Robert • 1972 “Expectations and the neutrality of money”. En Journal of Economic Theory. MADISON, A. 1991 Dynamic forces in capitalist development: a long run comparative view. Oxford • University Press. MODIGLIANI, Franco • 1944 “Liquidity preference and the theory of interest and money”. En Econometrica 12. Professor Carles Manera 32 Bibliography • • • • PARKIN, Michael 1995 Macroeconomía. Addison Wesley Iberoamericana. PATINKIN 1965 Money, interest and prices. Harper and Row Publishers. PETTY, William • 1963 The economic writtings of Sir William Petty, 2 vols. Nueva York: A.M. Kelley. • OKUN, Arthur M. 1962 Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance. Proceedingof the Business and • Economics Statistics Section, American Statistical Association (Washington D.C., American Statistical Association), págs. 98-103. Reimpreso en Arthur M. Okun, Economics for Policymaking, Mass., MIT Press, 1983, págs. 145-158. Professor Carles Manera 33 Bibliography • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • QUESNAY, François 1980 El “Tableau Economique” de Quesnay. México: Fondo de Cultura Económica. RICARDO, David Obras y correspondencia. 9 vols. P. SRAFFA (de). México: Fondo de Cultura Económica, 1959-1965. ROLL, Erick 1964 Historia de las doctrinas económicas. Fondo de Cultura Económica. SACHS, Jeffrey 1986 The Bolivian hyperinflation and stabilization, Cambridge, NBER. SACHS, Jeffrey y LARRAIN, Felipe 1993 Macroeconomía en la economía global. México: Prentice Hall. SACHS, Jeffrey y MORALES, Juan 1990 Bolivia’s economic crisis. En SACHS, J (de) Developing country debt and economic performance, vol. 2. University of Chicago Press. SARGENT, Thomas 1973 The end of four big inflations. En HALL, Robert. Inflation, causes and effects. 1982. SARGENT, Thomas y WALLACE, Neil 1976 “Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy”. En Journal of Monetary economics. SCREPANTI, Ernesto y ZAMAGNANI, Stefano 1993 An Outline of the History of Economic Thought, Clrendpon Press, Oxford. SMITH, Adam 1987 Investigación sobre la naturaleza y causa de la riqueza de las naciones. Villasar de mar: Oikos Tau. VELARDE, J. y RODRIGUEZ, M. 1994 El programa de estabilización peruana: evaluación del período 91-93. Lima: Universidad del Pacífico. 1992 De la desinflación a la hiperestanflación. Perú: 1986-1990. Lima: Universidad del Pacífico. WICKSELL, K. 1971 Lectures on Political Economy. Nueva York: A.M. Kelley Publishers. Professor Carles Manera 34