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Evo Devo Universe?
A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture
Evo Devo Universe 2008
October 2008  Paris, France
John Smart, President
Acceleration Studies Foundation
Outline
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
• Accelerating Change Phenomenon
• U-Shaped Curve of Change Phenomenon
• Evo, Info and Devo Extensions to Cosmology
• Informational Computational U. Hypothesis
• Evo Devo Universe Hypothesis
- Evo Info Devo (EID) Cartoon Model
- Processes of Universal Development
• Developmental Singularity Hypothesis
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• Global, Social, and Personal Implications
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies:
Something Curious Is Going On
Acceleration
Studies
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The Developmental Spiral
An unexplained physical phenomenon.
(Don’t look for this in your current
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physics or information theory texts…)
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Our Infomorphic, Biofelicitous,
Accelerating Universe
Acceleration
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Assumption:
The universe is a physical-computational system.
We exist for information theoretic reasons.
We’re here to evolve and develop.
To care, count, and act.
To create, discover, and manage.
To innovate, plan, profit, and predict,
in a wondrously ordered, elegant, and
surprising environment.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
“Unreasonable” Effectiveness and Efficiency of
Science and the Microcosm (Wigner and Mead)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the
Natural Sciences, Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner, 1960
After Wigner and Freeman Dyson’s work in 1951, on simple
universalities and symmetries in mathematical physics.
F=ma
E=mc2
W=(1/2mv2)
F=-(Gm1m2)/r2
Commentary on the “Unreasonable Efficiency of Physics
in the Microcosm,” VSLI Pioneer Carver Mead, c. 1980.
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In 1968, Mead predicted we would create
much smaller (to 0.15 micron) multi-million
chip transistors that would run far faster and
more efficiently. He later generalized this
observation to a number of other devices.
© 2008 Accelerating.org
From the Big Bang to Complex Stars:
The Decelerating Phase of Universal Development
Acceleration
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© 2008 Accelerating.org
From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology:
The Accelerating Phase of Universal Development
Acceleration
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Carl Sagan’s
“Cosmic
Calendar”
(Dragons of
Eden, 1977)
Each month
is roughly 1
billion years.
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© 2008 Accelerating.org
A U-Shaped Curve of Change:
Inner Space to Outer Space Back to Inner Space Again
Acceleration
Studies
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Big Bang Singularity
50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds
50 yrs ago: Machina silico
400,000 yrs: Matter
100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap.
1B yrs: Protogalaxies
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Developmental Singularity?
8B yrs: Earth
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Cosmic Embryogenesis (in Three Easy Steps)
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Geosphere/Geogenesis
(Chemical Substrate)
Biosphere/Biogenesis
(Biological-Genetic Substrate)
Noosphere/Noogenesis
(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)
Pierre Teihard de Chardin
(1881-1955)
Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist,
Developmental Systems Theorist
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Le Phénomène Humain, 1955
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De Chardin on Technological Acceleration:
Developmental “Cephalization” of Earth
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
"No one can deny that
a network (a world network) of
economic and psychic
affiliations is being woven at
ever increasing speed
which envelops and
constantly penetrates more
deeply within each of us. With
every day that passes it
becomes a little more
impossible for us to act or
think otherwise than
collectively."
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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“Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =
Phase Transition”
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Ray Kurzweil: A Generalized Moore’s Law
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© 2008 Accelerating.org
Emergence Acceleration:
Independent Assessments (Preliminary Data)
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© 2008 Accelerating.org
Ray Kurzweil,
2006
Dickerson’s Law: Solved Protein Structures
as a Moore’s-Dependent Process
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Richard Dickerson,
1978, Cal Tech:
Protein crystal
structure solutions
grow according to
n=exp(0.19y1960)
Dickerson’s law predicted 14,201 solved crystal
structures by 2002. The actual number (in online
Protein Data Bank (PDB)) was 14,250. Just 49 more.
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Macroscopically, the curve has been quite consistent.
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EDU Article Abstract - I
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The underlying paradigm for cosmology is theoretical
physics. We explore ways this framework might be
extended with insights from information and
computation studies and evolutionary developmental
(evo-devo) biology. We also briefly consider implications
of such a framework for cosmic culture.
We can distinguish evolutionary processes which are
stochastic, creative, and ‘divergent,’ and developmental
processes which produce statistically predictable, robust,
conservative, and ‘convergent’ structures and trajectories.
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Smart, John M. 2008. Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic
Culture. In: Cosmos and Culture, Steven J. Dick (ed.), NASA Press (est. 2009).
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EDU Article Abstract - II
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We will model our universe as an information processing, evolutionary
and developmental systemas an evo info devo universe (abbrev.
evo devo universe hereafter). Our framework will try to reconcile the
majority of unpredictable, evolutionary features of universal
emergence with a subset of potentially statistically predictable and
developmental universal trends, including:

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Acceleration in universal complexity (e.g. Aunger 2007), a pattern seen
over the last half—but not the first half—of the universe’s history
Increasing spatial and temporal locality of universal complexity
development
Hierarchies of increasingly matter and energy efficient and matter and
energy dense ‘substrates’ (platforms) for adaptation and computation
The apparent accelerating emergence, on Earth, of increasingly
postbiological (technological) systems of physical transformation and
computation.
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Three Models
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The
informational computational universe (ICU) hypothesis
considers the universe as a ‘purposeful’ information processing
system ‘shaped’ by emergent information, in which biological
culture has the potential to play some integral (e.g., anthropic) yet
transient universal role.
The evo devo universe (EDU) hypothesis considers the universe
engaged in both evolutionary creativity and hierarchical
development, including accelerating hierarchical development we
call ‘STEM compression’ of computation.
The developmental singularity (DS) hypothesis proposes our
universe’s accelerating and hierarchically dissipative intelligence
systems are developmentally constrained to produce a very
specific outcome, a black hole analogous computing system that,
per other theorists (see Smolin 1997) may be an integral
component in the replicative life cycle of our evo devo universe in
the multiverse.
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Informational Computational Universe hypothesis
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ICU
assumption: Our universe is both ‘in the shape of’ and
‘shaped by’ information and its emergents.
A cosmos of information and information processors
(prebiological, biological and postbiological) which play roles as
both descriptions of and shapers of universal dynamics.
The more easily observable and quantifiable physical features of
our universe, such as space, time, energy, and matter/mass, will
be referred to as STEM. Such features are impressively wellcharacterized, e.g. general relativity and quantum theory.
But no Einstein of information or computation theory, yet.
When STEM is described with the more abstract and harder-tomeasure features of information and computation emergents, we
may call this a STEM+IC universe (Smart 2002b).
IC has real influence. Mind has an ever more pervasive impact on
matter as a function of its complexity (Dyson 1988).
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Digital Physics – An Alluring Vision
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 We
may one day have an understanding of
our universe as a quantized computing
system (Zuse 1969; Wheeler 1983; Deutsch
1985,1997; Chaitin 1987; Fredkin 1990,1992;
Wolfram 2002; Lloyd 2006) that is discrete (at
the Planck scale) but never complete (in its
calculations).
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Infodynamics (Salthe 1990) + Thermodynamics:
What are the IC Constraints on STEM Processes?
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In these early days of information and computation theory we can
suggest many incomplete sets.
 Melioristic Universe (James 1921).
 Church-Turing Thesis on Computational Equivalence and
Interdependence, (Church 1934; Turing 1936).
 Gödel’s Thesis on Incompleteness (Gödel 1934; Chaitin 1998).
 Participatory Anthropic Principle (Wheeler 1983; Lloyd 2006).
 Strong (Life) Anthropic Principle (Barrow & Tipler 1986).
 ‘Final’ (Intelligence) Anthropic Principle (Barrow & Tipler 1986).
 Intelligence Principle (Dick 2003).
 Hierarchical Universe of Increasingly Intelligent and Dissipative
Complex Adaptive Systems (Simon 1962; de Vaucouleurs 1970;
Pattee 1973; Nicolis and Prigogine 1977; Allen and Starr 1982;
Salthe 1985,1993; Moravec 1988; Paul and Cox 1996; Kurzweil
1999; Chaisson, 2001).
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Observer Selection Bias Does Not Invalidate all
Anthropic Insights in a Developmental Universe
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Observer selection bias must accompany all anthropic
reasoning (universe hypotheses made from our position as
intelligent observers).
Bostrom (2002) and others might invoke a random-observer selfsampling assumption to critique ICU-related thinking. Yet the
EDU hypothesis will argue that random observer-moments only
exist in evolutionary processes, and must be an incorrect
framework for developmental processes.
If processes of universal development exist, and if they bias
intelligence to be a nonrandom (increasingly central) observer
in the universe system, as they do with intelligence in biological
systems, theories of universal development must prove an even
more fundamental framework to test for anthropic bias.
In such case, all observer selection models must be a subset of
universal evolutionary development models.
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Evo Devo Universe hypothesis
Acceleration
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Evo-devo biology seeks to resolve the differences between
evolutionary and developmental processes spanning the scales
of cells, organisms and ecologies (Carroll 2005, many others).
Recalling Teilhard’s (1955) evocative phrase, ‘cosmic
embryogenesis,’ if the Big Bang acts like a seed, and the
expanding universe like an embryo, it must use both stochastic,
contingent, and local/micro ‘adaptational’ processes—what we
are calling evolution—in its elaboration of form and function, just
as we see at the molecular scale in any embryo.
Embryos also transition through a set of statistically predictable,
convergent, and global/macro differentiation milestones, then
reproduction, senescence, and the unavoidable termination of
somatic (body) life—what we are calling development.
If the evo devo analogy has homology, there must be
unpredictable creativity and predictable developmental
milestones, reproduction, and ending to our universe.
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An EDU Analogy: Genetically Identical Twins
and Parametrically Identical Universes
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• In genetically identical twins, organogenesis, fingerprints, brain
wiring, learned ideas, behaviors, many local, microscopic
processes are unpredictably unique in each twin (Jain 2002). Yet
many global, macroscopic processes are predictably the same.
• Would parametrically identical universes also be mostly and
locally unique, yet with predictable global and macroscopic
similarities?
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• This is a question for future simulation science.
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Evolution: A Tentative Definition
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Evolutionary processes in biology, and perhaps also in physical,
chemical, cultural, technological, and universal systems, are
stochastic (random within constraints), creative, divergent
(variation creating), contingent, nonlinear, and unpredictable.
This intrinsic unpredictability may be our most useful
quantitative definition and discriminator of evolutionary
processes at all systems levels.
Note: Evolution is NOT natural selection, in this definition. Its
fundamental dynamic is change and variation (within
constraints). It is a creativity generator, and thus a precursor to
natural selection.
Example: Genetic drift in neutral theory (Kimura 1983; Leigh
2007).
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Development: A (Tentative) Definition
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Developmental processes in biology, and we assume also in
physical, chemical, cultural, technological, and universal
systems, are directional, hierarchical, constraining, convergent,
integrative, self-assembling/self-organizing, and statistically
predictable if you have the right empirical or theoretical aids.
This systemic predictability may be our most useful
quantitative definition and discriminator of developmental
processes at all systems levels.
Development also has a cyclical hierarchy: birth, growth,
maturation, reproduction, senescence, death (recycling).
Note: Development is NOT natural selection, in this definition.
It is convergent unifier, and thus a specialized outcome of
natural selection.
Examples: Differentiation, STEM compression, ergodicity,
evolutionary homoplasy, modularity, hierarchy, self-similarity,
scale invariance, self-org., stigmergy, niche construction, etc.
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Evo Info Devo (EID) Process: Cartoon Model I
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Assumption: A universe of information (computationally complex
patterns of physical STEM as adapted structure), with evolution
and development as complementary modes of information
processing in all complex adaptive systems, including the
universe as a system.
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Evo Info Devo (EID) Process: Cartoon Model II
“Natural Selection”
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“Experimentation”
Main Actor: Seed
Replication, Variation,
Chaos, Contingency,
Early Species Radiation
(Mostly Nonadapted)
Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors
Main Actor: Organism
Modularity, Responsiveness,
Plasticity, Intelligence
(Local Adaptation)
Requisite Variety
Mixed Attractors
Adaptation
Radiation
“Convergent Unification”
Main Actor: Environment
Life Cycle, STEM Compression,
Ergodicity/Comp. Closure,
‘Evolutionary’ Convergence,
Path-Dependence/Hierarchy,
Dissipative Structures,
Positive Sumness/Synergy,
Niche Construction/Stigmergy,
Self-Organization
(Global Adaptation)
Environmental Optimization
Standard Attractors
Hierarchy
Evolution
‘Left Hand’ of Change
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New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’
Info (EvoDevo)
(Intersection)
Development
‘Right Hand’ of Change
Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
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Evo Info Devo (EID) Examples:
Experimentation + Selectionism + Unification
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‘Quantum Darwinism’ in the transition from quantum to classical
physics (Blume-Kohout and Zurek 2005)
Stellar nucleosynthesis (Wallenberg)
Biogenesis (Smith and Morowitz 2006)
Multicellularity (Newman and Bhat 2008)
‘Neural Darwinism’ in brain development (Edelman 1989)
Cognitive selectionism (thinking) (Calvin 1985)
Evolutionary psychology (Wright 1998)
Cultural, ‘memetic’, and ‘technetic’ selection (Aunger)
Evolutionary computation and artificial life (Koza)
Cosmological natural selection (Smolin 1992)
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Evo Info Devo (EID) Triad: Three Universal Telos
(Values/Goals/Drives/Ethics) in Complex Systems
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Three functional processes
(telos) can be observed in:
 Physical Systems
 Chemical Systems
 Biological Systems
 Societal Systems
 Technological Systems
 Our Universe as a System
With the EID model we can look at complex adaptive systems as either:
1. Info Systems (making their evo and devo processes implicit),
2. Evo Devo Systems (making their info processing implicit), or
3. Evo, Info and Devo Systems (keeping all three perspectives explicit).
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Evo Devo in Creation and Control:
The ’95/5%’ Rule of Thumb
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The vast majority (let us roughly propose 95%) of the information
and computation to describe and model both creation of a new
CAS or hierarchy or control in a mature CAS or hierarchy involves
bottom-up, local, evo processes. A minor yet critical contribution
(again, let us roughly propose 5%) comes from top-down,
systemic, developmental processes.
Ex: No of genes used (and highly conserved) in developmental
toolkit in any species (eg., Dictyostelium, 2-3%), vs. the much
larger number of ‘evolutionary’ genes that are more frequently
modified and affect phenotype variation, not development.
The 95/5% Rule may explain why discovery of universal
development been difficult not in physics and chemistry (where
we have made great strides, e.g., mechanics, relativity, particle
physics) but in biology, society, and technology.
In these latter substrates, which are not yet ergodic, the time
scale of the (‘5%’) nonrandom developmental signal is much longer
than the (‘95%’) near-random evolutionary signal.
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Evo Devo, Life Cycle, and Intelligence: Seed,
Organism, Environment (SOE) Intelligence Partitioning
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 The
disposable soma theory of
aging (Kirkwood 1977,2005)
outlines two different choices in
energy and information flow that
occur in the ‘disposable’ soma
(organism, body) versus the
‘immortal’ germline (seed, sperm/
egg) in all biological systems.
 Bio intelligence actually lives in
three places however: seed,
organism, and environment (SOE).
 In
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an evo info devo universe, intelligence is energetically and
informationally partitioned between a soma (organism) that is
finite, reproductive and mortal, an ‘immortal’ (and much slowerchanging) germline (seed) of parameters that have very slowly selforganized through many reproductive cycles in the multiverse, and
the multiverse itself (environment).
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What are black holes?
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Lee Smolin’s Answer: Developmental Systems
Engaged in ‘Cosmological Natural Selection’
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At least 8 of the “fundamental”
universal parameters appear tuned for:
– black hole production
– multi-billion year old Universes
(capable of creating Life)
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Lee Smolin, The Life of the Cosmos, 1996
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Cosmological Natural Selection (CNS)
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Perhaps the first viable astrophysical evo devo universe model to
date. Quentin Smith (1990,2000) Lee Smolin
(1992,1994,1997,2006).
Seeks to explain the ‘fine tuning’ or ‘improbable universe’
problem (Leslie 1989, Rees 1999, Barrow 2002,2007).
19+15, or 20, or 6, or 3, or no? fundamental parameters, an
‘economical but ungainly’ set, like developmental genes. We may
eliminate some, yet add more as particle physics advances.
In Smolin’s simulations (1992,1994,1997), eight of
approximately twenty parameters appear fine tuned both
for long-lived universes capable of generating complex
life and for the production of hundreds of trillions of
black holes (‘fecundity’ of production)
 CNS proposes the special values of our universal
parameters are the result of an evolutionary selection
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involving universe reproduction via black holes,
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thus universe adaptation in the multiverse).
Palo(and
Alto

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Cosmological Natural Selection
with Intelligence (CNS-I)
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CNS is a ‘genetic’ theory of intelligence influence on natural
selection (‘genetic’ CNS-I)
It stops short in considering how genetic intelligence must lead to
‘postgenetic’ substrates (eg, cultural and technological evo
devo), as we see on Earth, and how postgenetic influences must
grow in strength over universal time.
Models which address this may be called full or ‘high-level’ CNS-I
(Crane 1994; Harrison 1995,1998; Gardner 2000,2003,2005,2007;
Smart 2000,2002,2008; Balázs 2002; McCabe 2006; Vidal 2008).
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Development as a Logical Specification Hierarchy
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1. AstroPhysics
(Universe-as-CAS, constants, laws, space-time, matter-energy)
2. AstroChemistry
(galaxies, stars, planets, inorganic and organic chemistry)
3. AstroBiology
(cells, organisms, populations, species, ecologies)
4. AstroSociology
(culture, economics, law, science, engineering, etc.)
5. AstroTechnology
(bio-inspired computing, tech. singularity, postbiological ‘life’)
Note: Galaxies and earlier CAS (in italics above) may also be
replicative evo devo systems if there is a multiverse.
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Development as Terminal Differentiation
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Development as Ergodicity (State Space ‘Closure’)
Key to a Model of Self-Organization?
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Development as Evolutionary Convergence
(Homoplasy) - I
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Some
homoplasies greatly advance individual and cultural
information processing and adaptation in a broad range of
environments, for the first species that acquire them.
Simon Conway Morris (Life’s Solution, 2004): eyes, jointed
limbs, body plans, emotions, imagination, language,
opposable thumbs, tool use, etc.
The streamlined shape of fish fins, first created as an
evolutionary morphological experiment, must persist in the genes
of all organisms seeking to move rapidly through water on all Earthlike planets, as a universal developmental constraint imposed
by the physics of our universe.
In an ICU universe, such advances are ‘evolutionary ratchets’
(function randomly acquired but statistically irreversible once
acquired, in a broad range of environments), a type of
developmental optima (for a given level of environmental
complexity) in all universes of our type.
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Development as Evolutionary Convergence
(Homoplasy) - II
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Many such homoplasies may be developmental attractors in a
hierarchical informational computational universe:
 Organic (carbon) chemistry (vs. silicon, boron, etc.)
 Biotic precursors (amino acids, purines&pyrimidines, pre-lipids)
 RNA as enzyme and code
 Dynamical patterning modules (Newman & Bhat 2008)
 Eyes, body plans, limbs, joints, wings, etc. (Morris 2004)
 Bilateral symmetry, binocular vision, tetrapod form
 Bipedalism, opposable thumbs, anthropoid form (Russell)
 Gestural, behavioral, oral, written mimicry memetics (languages)
 Lithic and neolithic tool use (rock, spear, lever, rope, wheel, pulley)
 Internal combustion engine
 Math, science, computers
 Etc.
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Development as STEM Compression
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Our universe is apparently constructing special zones of local
intelligence (complexity, modeling capacity, meaningful information)
which are measurably and predictably more space, time, energy
and matter dense, or STEM dense (meaning increasingly localized
in space, accelerated in time, and dense in energy and matter
flows), and STEM efficient (in space, time, energy, and matter
resources used per standardized computation or physical
transformation). (Smart 1999,2000,2002b).
 Space Compression (Increasing Locality of CAS Hierarchy)
 Time Compression (accelerating change, Cosmic Calendar)
 Energy Compression (free energy rate density)
 Matter Compression (learning curves, cities, high density comp.)
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Free Energy Rate Density: A ‘Right Wall’ of
Increasingly Local Dynamic Complexity
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Global AI of the 21st C?
Pentium II of the 1990's
Intel 8080 of the 1970's
Modern engines
Society (Modern culture)
Brains (Human cranium)
Animals (Human body)
Ecosystems (Biosphere)
Planets (Cooling Earth)
Stars (Sun)
Galaxies (Milky Way)
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1012+
1011
1010
105 to 108
5x105
1.5x105
2x104
900
75
2
0.5
Free energy rate density values in
emergent hierarchical CAS.
(Adapted from Chaisson 2001).© 2007
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Energy Rate Density Flow Depends on
Life Cycle Stage in Biological Development
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Note the ‘right walls’ (hatching
and reproductive maturity) of
energy rate density increase
in a developing organism.
Different dynamic depending
on the developmental phase
(fertilization, hatching,
reproductive maturity,
senescence
Are there analogies for social
and technological
development?
For universal development?
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Are Earth’s and the Universe’s Info/Computation/
Value Production Histories Both on a J-Curve?
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GDP per capita in Western Europe,
1000 CE to 1999 CE. Adapted from
The Economist , Jan 3, 2000.
J-curve of the LAC ‘law,’ a series of
first order S- and B-curves (indiv.
growth-limited comp.substrates).
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Is there a Universal Law of
Locally Asymptotic Computation (LAC)?
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© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Estimating the Growth and Limits
of Universal Computation
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Universal Computing to Date: 10^120 logical ops
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Digital Computing to Date: 10^31 logical ops
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Understanding most Developmental History and some of the
Evolutionary History of the System. (e.g., CA’s)
Computing right down to Planck Scale?
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Half this was produced in the last 2 year doubling.
Lloyd’s Estimate: 300 Doublings (600 years) to a
“Past-Closed” Omega Computer.
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Turing, Von Neumann, Ed Fredkin, John Wheeler
No Minimum Energy to Send a Bit (Landauer)
Quantum and Femto-Scale Processes
Seth Lloyd, “Computational Capacity of the Universe, Phys.Rev.Lett., 2002
C. Bennett & R. Landauer, “Fund. Phys. Limits of Computation, Sci. Am., July 1985
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Developmental Singularity (aka,
‘Inner Space’ or ‘Transcension’) Hypothesis
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 Due
to the universal developmental trend of STEM compression,
Earth’s local intelligence will apparently very soon in astronomical
time develop black-hole-analogous features, a highly local,
dense, and maximally computationally efficient form we may call
a developmental singularity (DS) (Smart 2000).
 The DS seems to be a natural progression of the technological
singularity that is likely to emerge on Earth in coming
generations.
 The DS hypothesis proposes universal intelligence development
from ‘outer space’ to ‘inner space’ (zones of great STEM density
and great self-awareness/simulation capacity).
 The DS hypothesis is a ‘Transcension hypothesis’ (intelligence
becomes increasingly local and leaves the visible universe) as
opposed to an ‘Expansion hypothesis’ (intelligence expands
throughout and reshapes the visible universe over time).
© 2007
2008 Accelerating.org
Transcension Hypothesis: A Developmental
Destiny for Local Intelligence?
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‘Black Hole Equivalent’ Transcension may be a
developmental destiny for local intelligence,
apparently very soon in cosmological time.
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• Driven by accelerating STEM compression
• Expressing Intelligence, Interdependence, and Immunity
• A destiny of Inner Space, not Outer Space (Age of Sims)
© 2008 Accelerating.org
The Fermi Paradox
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So where are the ET’s?
Andromeda Galaxy is
only 2 mill light yrs away
A Dev. Sing. Prediction:
SETI Fossils by 2080
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Our Milky Way Galaxy is just
45,000 light years in radius.
Earth-like planets 2-5 Billion years
older than us closer to the core.
“Answering the Fermi Paradox,” John Smart, 2003
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Present Score:
13 for Transcension, 2 for Expansion
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The Case For Transcension
1. Universal Speed Limit (c), and Isolation of Everything Interesting
2. Hierarchy Emergence Exhibits Singularities (Phase Transitions)
3. Relentless STEM Compression of Hierarchy Emergence
4. Age of Simulations (Networks, Inner Space)
5. Technological Singularity Hypothesis
6. “Plenty of Room at the Bottom” (Richard Feynman about Nanotech)
7. Bottom is Strange (Quantum Weirdness) and Computational
8. Hyperspace (String, M, Supersymmetry or some such theory, 10,11,26D)
9. Multiverse Theories with very early simulation testability (CNS, CNS-I)
10. Fermi Paradox Explanation (Constrained Developmental Transcension)
11. Lambda Universe Explanation (The Kerrigan Problem. "Why Now?")
12. A Non-Anthropomorphic Future
13. Midpoint Evidence (weak but potentially useful)
The (Highly Suspect) Case for Expansion
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1. 3D Space was the Cradle and is the Playground for Biological Life
2. Expansion is a Comfortable Extrapolation of our Frontier Experience
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Foresight:
Implications of the EDU Framework for Humanity - I
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Our History, Present, and Future can be rewritten as:
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Evolutionary choices (Evo, 95%), developmental forces
(Devo, 5%) and the Learning/Simulation increase (Info,
100%) from their interaction
Evo, Info, and Devo Teleology. Innovation, learning,
and sustainability goals, drives, and values constrain
humans and our tech, and will constrain AIs to come.
Sustainable Innovation. Devo and evo polarized
countries, parties, and people exist. We need both.
95/5 Rule. Don’t overconstrain (too much devo), don’t
see change as unstructured (too much evo).
Seed, Org, Envir (SOE) Intelligence Partitioning.
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Biological immortality is a major, mistaken fantasy
We need a new theory of identity/intelligence
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Foresight:
Implications of the Framework for Humanity - II
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Hierarchy and Acceleration.
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STEM Compression will continue on Earth
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Human cities will only get more STEM efficient/dense
STEM dense tech (nanotech) will continue to deliver
unreasonable returns
Inner Space increasingly encompasses Outer Space
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We are in a purposeful, accelerative, emergent process.
Humans aren’t the end of the line. We will ‘pass the baton.’
Increasing importance of the human mind and heart
(education, beliefs, philosophy) in culture, politics, economics
Increasing growth in the value and capacity of the virtual,
increasing virtual-physical and human-machine interface
Importance of ‘gardening’ our technological extensions
(they are the next inner space), and guiding their interaction
with the current inner space (human consciousness).
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Foresight:
Implications of the Framework for Humanity - III
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 Outlines
of an Evo Devo Theory
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Two-way exchange is necessary for complexity construction.
Feedback is a critical requirement (’95%’ of info flow).
One-way exchange is useful only for control. (‘5%’ info flow,
very sparingly used, to avoid overconstraining the system).
 Evo
Devo Cosmological Natural Selection with
Intelligence (Evo Devo CNS-I)
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“We are a small piece of the universe, produced by the
universe to improve (evo), understand (info), and care for
(devo) the universe, our world, and ourselves.
 Developmental
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Singularity Hypothesis
“Everyone else is doing this, and we will meet many of them
very soon, in astronomical time.”
Predictions: CETI beacons will never be constructed. SETI
fossils will be found. ‘Our destiny is density.’
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Summary
Acceleration
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• Accelerating Change Phenomenon
• U-Shaped Curve of Change Phenomenon
• Informational Computational Universe Hypothesis
- STEM+IC Universe
- Dissipative structures seem particularly important.
• Evo Devo Universe Hypothesis
- EID Model, CNS, and CNS-I
- 95/5 Rule, SOE Intelligence Partitioning Rule
- Processes of Universal Development
○ Hierarchy, Terminal Differentiation, Ergodicity
Evol. Convergence, STEM Compression
• Developmental Singularity Hypothesis
- Falsifiable Predictions (STEM Compression, SETI)
• Evo Devo Foresight
- Global, Social and Personal Implications
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Discussion