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The Race to Inner Space: Seeing, Guiding, and Benefiting from Humanity’s Faster, Smaller, Smarter, and Wealthier Future Global Future 2045 Feb 2012 Moscow, Russia John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation Slides: accelerating.org/slides Evolution and Development Two Basic Processes of Universal Change Evolution and Development: See them in Life, See them in the Universe Acceleration Studies Foundation Consider two ‘genetically identical’ twins: A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Chaos / Chance Predetermination / Necessity Their thumbprints, brain wiring, ideas, behaviors, local processes and ‘small things’ are unpredictably unique in each twin. But many ‘large things’ end up predictably the same, due to special initial conditions and constant physical law. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto If the Universe is Like Life, unpredictable and creative evolutionary process works with predictable and convergent developmental process to create universal complexity. © 2011 Accelerating.org Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo): The ‘Left and Right Hands’ of Universal Change Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “Natural Selection” Requisite Variety Mixed Attractors Adaptation “Experimentation” “Convergent Unification” Stochastic Search Strange Attractors Environmental Optimization Standard Attractors Radiation Evolution Development ‘Left Hand’ of Change ‘Right Hand’ of Change New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’ Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Hierarchy Evo Devo Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’ (Intersection) Evo Devo Universe?, J. Smart, In: Cosmos & Culture, Steve Dick (ed.), 2009 © 2011 Accelerating.org Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: Three Basic Processes in All Complex Systems Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Three processes (telos) can be seen in: Technological Systems Societal Systems Biological Systems Chemical Systems Physical Systems Evo Devo Universe?, J. Smart, In: Cosmos & Culture, Steve Dick (ed.), 2009 © 2011 Accelerating.org Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: Classical Quantitative Relationships in Complex Systems S curve Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Power law Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Normal curve © 2011 Accelerating.org Human Society Also Uses Evolution, Development, and Evo Devo Processes Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Ref: Jacob Bronowski, Science and Human Values, 1965 © 2011 Accelerating.org The “95% vs. 5%” Ratio: Evolution vs. Development Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit 95% Evo Almost all (roughly 95%) of the events and computation to create or control a complex system are bottom-up evolutionary processes. A small critical subset (~5%) are top-down, hierarchical, developmental processes. 5% Devo Examples: ▪ Almost all genes in an organism (eg, 97% of Dictyostelium DNA) change often to create evolutionary variety vs. a special subset (3%) which form the developmental toolkit and are highly conserved. ▪ Almost all cells in an organism compete for their location. A special few are fated in advance to particular locations early in development. ▪ Almost all ideas and actions in an organism are experiments. A special few become stable strategies, across many environments. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto ▪ Almost all technology products and services are evolutionary experiments. A few are developments destined to be the next big thing. © 2011 Accelerating.org Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Examples: Experimentation + Selection + Convergent Unification Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Transition from “quantum darwinism” to classical physics (relativity, thermo, classical mechanics) physics (Zurek 2005) Stellar evolutionary nucleosynthesis to life cycle (Clayton 1968) Molecular evolution to biogenesis (Smith and Morowitz 2006) Multicellular evolution to tissue types (Newman and Bhat 2008) ‘Neural Darwinism’ to brain development (Edelman 1989) Cognitive selectionism to conscious thinking (Calvin 1985) ‘Memetic’ imagination to moral universals (Wright 2000) ‘Technetic’ selection to technological archetypes (Kelly 2010) Evolutionary computation to artificial intelligence (Koza 1998) Cosmological natural selection to universe devel. (Smolin 1992) EvoDevoUniverse.com Evolutionary Convergences (Developmental Attractors): A Few Examples Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evolutionary convergences are developmental attractors in a hierarchical informational computational universe: Organic (carbon) chemistry (vs. silicon, boron, etc.) Amino acids, purines&pyrimidines, pre-lipids as cell precursors RNA as enzyme and code for protein architectures (Woese) Dynamical pattern modules in multicellularity (Newman 2008) Antifreeze molecules in northern and southern polar fish Placental vs. marsupial mice, moles, rabbits, wolves, tigers, etc. Eyes, body plans, limbs, joints, wings, fins, emotions (Morris) Bilateral symmetry, binocular vision, tetrapod form Prehensile limbs, opposable thumbs, anthropoids (Russell) Mimicry memetics (languages) gestural, behavioral, oral, written Neolithic+ tools (rock, club, spear, lever, rope, wheel, pulley) Internal combustion engine, metallurgy, chemistry, electronics, Math, science, computers, internet, cellphones… Next? © 2007 2008 Accelerating.org Accelerating Change Evolutionary and Developmental Drivers of the Race to Inner Space Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar: U-Shaped Curve of Complexity Development Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2011 Accelerating.org A U-Shaped Curve of Change: Inner Space to Outer Space Back to Inner Space Again Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Big Bang Singularity 50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds 50 yrs ago: Machina silico 400,000 yrs: Matter 100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap. 1B yrs: Protogalaxies Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Developmental Singularity? 8B yrs: Earth Reproduction and Birth are Energetically Accelerative in Complex Living Systems Acceleration Studies Foundation Salthe, Development and Evolution, 1990 A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Note the energy flow trends in each phase of the life cycle (birth, growth, reproduction, senescence) of a developing organism. Only reproduction and birth phases are accelerative in living systems. Stellar reproduction (via supernovas) has the same energetics profile. Key Question: In an evo devo universe, does complexity accelerate because it is engaged in a process of universal reproduction? © 2009 Accelerating.org Free Energy (Phi, Φ) of Dissipative Systems: A Hyperbolic Curve of Universal Development Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Energy Flow Density (Φ) Substrate (ergs/sec/gm) Global AI of the 21st C Pentium II of the 1990's Intel 8080 of the 1970's Modern Engines Culture (human) Brains (human) Animals (hum. body) Ecosystems Planets (Early) Stars Galaxies 10^12+ (10^11) 10^10 10^5 to 10^8 500,000 (10^5) 150,000 (10^5) 20,000 (10^4) 900 75 2 0.5 Los Angeles New York Eric Chaisson, Palo Alto Cosmic Evolution, 2001 Free energy flow density values in hierarchically emergent CAS. The Race to Inner Space: Civilization’s Hidden Strategic Objectives Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Infotech/Simulation - Virtual Inner Space - Evolution “As Intelligence Rises, Thinking Becomes More Adaptive Than Acting” Adult humans no longer act in novel ways, they think in novel ways. Simulations allow “ephemeralization” (far less mass/energy per action) Rise of scientific simulations. IPCC. NASA Solar System Simulator Telepresence outcompetes traveling for perception Telerobotics/haptics outcompetes traveling for action Google maps, sensors, geoweb, parallelized GPUs: visual cortex for the web. Machine sim data doubles every 2 years. Human sims grow far slower. Nanotech/Engineering - Physical Inner Space - Development “There’s Plenty of Performance at the Bottom.” Fission 1,000X more E than chem. Fusion 1,000X more E than fission Fuel cells store 100,000X more E/mass than chemical batteries Synthetic catalysts increase reaction speeds & yields 1,000-1,000,000X Programmable synapses use 10^6 less E per comp. than neurons Photonic crystal lasers 10^6 more E efficient than other microlasers Single step efficiency jumps in macro (human) space are always far less Los Angeles New York The Transcension Palo Alto Hypothesis, J.Smart, 2011; The Future of Scientific Simulations, C. Vidal, 2008 © 2011 Accelerating.org