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Accelerating Change,
Our Digital Future, and
the Values of Progress
Amplify 11: Everything Connects
6-10 June 2011  Sydney, NSW, Australia
John Smart, President,
Acceleration Studies Foundation
Slides: accelerating.org/slides
Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
▪ We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo
devo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes the
universe contains both:
1.
2.
Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that
we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and
creative paths (most of which will fail) and a small set of
Convergent and predictable developmental constraints
(initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain
aspects of our long-range future.
▪ Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to
the future of complex systems on Earth include:
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Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity
in our global sociotechnological systems
Increasing technological autonomy, and
Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physicaldigital interface.
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Accelerating Change
Science and Technology Grow Faster and Smarter
Every Year, Creating Both Disruption and Opportunity
World Economic
Performance
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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GDP per capita in West Europe,
from 1000-1999 A.D.
- This curve is smooth and
superexponential on a very
long time scale.
- Note the “knee of the curve”
(state switch) occurs in 1850, at
the Industrial Revolution.
- Next, growth gets so fast it goes
vertical “wall of curve” in 1950.
- Such supergrowth signals
birth of a whole new stable
system (geo  bio  techno)
- Each way faster than prior sys.
Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD,
Angus Maddison, 2007
Moore’s Law and Mead’s Law, or
the Law of Miniaturization Efficiency (LME)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Gordon Moore
Carver Mead
Moore’s Law. In1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted that computer
chips (processors, memory, etc.) were doubling in complexity every 12-24
months at constant unit cost.
If this continued (and it did) on average, affordable computing capacity
(memory, input, output, processing) grows by 1000X (ten doublings:
2,4,8,16,32…. 1024) every 15 years. A recipe for continual emergence!
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Mead’s Law. In 1967, Carver Mead discovered a Law of Miniaturization
Efficiency. Computer chip efficiencies increase by the cube (power of three)
of the reduction in scale. As transistor density goes up linearly in two
dimensions, this exponentially increases speed (less distance to travel)
computational power (speed × density), decreases power consumption,
increases system reliability, and decreases cost per unit. Wow.
© 2010 Accelerating.org
The J Curve
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
 First-Order Components
are growth-limited Hierarchical
Substrates (S- or B-Curves)
 Second-Order
Hyperbolic Growth
Emergence Singularities (marginal
innovations, transformations)
and a Limit Singularity
(prior to a system transformation)
Examples:
▪ Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar
▪ Chaisson’s FERD (Complexity)
▪ Global Economic Performance
▪ Sci & Tech Performance Metrics
▪ Cultural Adoption of Innovation
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New
York
Accelerating
Socio-Technological Evolution: From Ephemeralization and Stigmergy to the Global Brain, Francis Heylighen, 2007.
Palo Alto
Four Alternative Growth Scenarios:
Jim Dator’s “Four Futures”
 Right wing
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Continuation
(Economic Issues)
Limits & Discipline
(Social Issues)
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
 Left wing
Continuation
(Social Issues)
Limits & Discipline
(Economic Issues)
 Up wing
Transformation
(Selective Issues)
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Key Images/Stories/Policies With Respect to Change
First two are Evolutionary (“Innovation”).
Second two are Developmental (“Sustainability”).
 Down wing
Decline & Collapse
(Selective Issues)
Dator, Jim. 1979. Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, Academic Press.
© 2010 Accelerating.org
The Developmental Spiral
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Homo Habilis Age
Homo Sapiens Age
Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age
Agricultural Age
Empires Age
Scientific Age
Industrial Age
Information Age
Symbiotic Age
Autonomy Age
Tech Singularity
2,000,000 yrs ago
100,000 yrs
40,000 yrs
7,000 yrs
2,500 yrs
380 yrs (1500-1770)
180 yrs (1770-1950)
70 yrs (1950-2020)
30 yrs (2020-2050)
10 yrs (2050-2060)
≈ 2060
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Our Digital Future
The Conversational Interface, the Cybertwin, and
the Valuecosm - How the Web and Individuals Will Both
Get Smarter Relative to Corporations and Governments
in Coming Decades, and Why That Matters
The Future of the Web (2007)
The Future of Internet TV (2010)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Smart et. al., 2007 (98 pp)
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John Smart, 2010 (48 pp)
http://metaverseroadmap.org/index.html
http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartJ-2010-HowTVwillbeRevolutionized.pdf
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Five Generic Steps in Web Development
Metaverseroadmap.org
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Web 1.0
Web 2.0
Web 3.0
Web 4.0
Web 5.0
Read Mainly - Graphical UI
Read/Write/Participatory - Social UI
3D/Video (iTV, VW, MW, AR,) - Metaverse UI
Semantic (Valuecosm) - Conversational UI
Intelligent (Planetization, Global Brain,
Tech and Social ‘Singularity’) - Cognitive UI
Web
Metaverse
Metahumanity
We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback.
Edge platforms include search (Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha), telephony
(iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking
(Facebook, Foursquare), microblogging (Twitter), conferencing and
collaboration environments (Skype, Wave, WebEx, Wikis), video
(YouTube, Boxee, P2PTV), games and virtual worlds (XBox Live, Second
Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars (Miis, MyCyberTwin),
lifelogging (MyLifeBits), augmented reality (QR codes, Wikitude, Layar).
Collectively, these are today more a story of intelligence amplification (IA,
‘Sociotech’) than of artificial intelligence (AI, ‘Infotech’).
This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction
process society has ever engaged in.
Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). Metaverseroadmap.org
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Online Economy: Growing Even Faster than China
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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From 1996 to 2010, total internet users grew from 36 million to
1.9 billion, or from 1% to 27% of the world.
There were 1 billion PC’s (desktops, laptops, tablets) in use
globally in 2008, with a projected doubling to 2 billion by 2015, or
a compound AGR of 10% per year.
From 1996 to 2006, U.S. online retail (B2C) e-commerce, a
proxy for the virtual economy, grew from 5 million to $95 billion,
with 2009 global compound AGR of 11% per year.
By the end of 2011, 1 billion people, 16% of the world, is
projected to be on the web via smartphones, which grow at a
compound AGR of 14% per year.
Facebook, the worlds leading social software, has grown to 600
million users (one out of every 11 people on the planet) in 7
years, a marginal AGR of 100% per year.
Key Point: Think of the Virtual (Online, Metaverse) Economy
as the future, even more, much more, than “China as the future.”
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Web 3.0 (The 3D/Video Web) is On the Horizon
Open Internet TV Will Be The Killer App of Web 3.0
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Conversational Interface, Memeshows,
Cybertwins, and Valuecosm
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Codebreaking follows
a logistic curve.
Collective NLP may as
well.
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Alto J.
Smart,
Date
1998
2005
2012
2019
Avg. Query
1.3 words
2.6 words
5.2 words
10.4 words
Platform
Altavista
Google
GoogleHelp
GoogleBrain
Average spoken
human-to-human
query length is
8-11 words.
2003. The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward.
Global Digital Transparency:
Result of a Networked Planet
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Gmail (2004) preserves every email we’ve ever typed.
Gmailers are all bloggers who don’t know it.
Nokia’s Lifeblog (2004) (photos,
movie clips, text messages, notes),
SenseCam and MyLifeBits (2003)
early examples of lifelogs, systems
for auto-recording, archiving
indexing, and searching all our
life experience, as it happens.
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Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then
everything we’ve ever seen. All this storage, processing, and
bandwidth makes us all networkable in ways we never dreamed.
Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and all
this data begins turning into collective intelligence.
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Virtual Space is Fastspace:
Mirror Worlds, Virtual Worlds, AR, Lifelogs
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Our free report: MetaverseRoadmap.org
The Sims
Google Earth + Street View
Los Angeles Second Life
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• Rapid, interactive, multi-user
• Collaboration environments
(user-created content)
• Optimization environments
(GIS, automation, AI)
• More fun than older digital
media (games & VWs outsell
movies, now and forever).
• Still Bandwidth- and CPUlimited (not yet “hyperreal”).
Synthetic Worlds, 2005
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Wearable Cellphones, Lifelogs, and AR
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Necklace phone
(Nokia 2004)
‘Bracelet phone’ concept
(Vodafone 2006)
‘Carpal PC’ concept
(Metaverse Roadmap 2007)
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First ‘Picturephone’
(AT&T 1970)
iPhone (Apple 2007)
Flip Ultra (2007, $130)
Top-selling camcorder.
LED Screens, Half-Caves, and Game Tables:
Telepresence, Gameification, & Serious Games
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Half-Cave, 2010
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Milo and Kate, Microsoft 2010
DriveSharp, 2010
Dexcom glucose monitor, 2010
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent
Interface (“CyberTwin”) in 2010? In 2020?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Nonverbal and verbal language in
parallel is a much more efficient
communication modality.
Birdwhistell says 2/3 (but perhaps
only 1/3) of info in face-to-face
human conversation is nonverbal.
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“Working with Phil” in Apple’s
Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987
Ananova, 2000
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Circa 2020: The Symbiotic Age
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
A Coevolution Between Saturating Humans
and Accelerating Technology.
A time when:
▪ Complex things can “speak our language.”
▪ Our technologies become very responsive to
our needs and desires.
▪ Humans and machines are intimately
connected, and always improving each other.
▪ We will begin to feel “naked” without our
computer “clothes.”
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© 2010 Accelerating.org
Personality Capture: A Long-Term
Development of Intelligence Amplification
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Conversational interfaces lead to personality models.
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long-term futures have been proposed.
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“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Your Cybertwin (Digital Self):
Helping You Now, Helping Others Later
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Note the conflict between these two statements:
“I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.”
“I enjoy saving stories about my life for my children.”
Prediction:
▪ When your mother dies in 2040,
your digital mom will be “50% her.”
▪ When your best friend dies in 2060,
your digital best friend will be “80% him.”
Cybertwins, as our digital agents, will engage in
successive approximation, gentle integration,
subtle capturing and transition… of our selves.
When we can shift our conscious perspective
between our electronic and biological components,
the encapsulation and transcendence of the
biological should feel like only growth, not death.
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We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Greg Panos and his Digital Mom
PersonaFoundation.org
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Circa 2030: The Valuecosm
A More Pluralistic and Positive-Sum Future
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s
Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s
Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s
Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s
- Recording & Publishing Cybertwin Prefs
- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions
- Much Early Abuse (Marketing, Fraud, Advise)
- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
- Today’s Leading Edge: Social Network Media
© 2010 Accelerating.org
Better Work and Collaboration:
Symbiont Networks
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
When we have an early Metaverse 2.0, lifelogs, and pervasive
broadband connectivity, we can expect…
 150 (Dunbar number) of our kids most cognitively diverse (Page
2008) friends permissioned into their lifestreams, 24/7.
 A reputation and reciprocity collaboration system that keeps
everyone contributing to the symbiont (no free riders).
 Powerful new group learning and expert performance, with
symbionts seriously outperforming unconnected individuals.
Always having 150 “lifelines” who know you, in any situation.
 New cultural protocols, symbionts must be temporarily turned off
for job interviews, tests, private moments, etc.).
 Serious behavioral modification (juveniles, criminals, mentally ill)
and performance enhancement.
 Fantastic new subcultural diversity (transhumanist symbionts,
Amish symbionts, etc.)
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Page,
New
York Scott.
Palo
Alto
Schools
and
2008. The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms,
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Societies, Princeton U. Press.
Better Decisionmaking and Self-Actualization:
The Emerging Digital Self
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Some Challenges - particularly early:
 Data Security and Privacy
 Predictive Marketing and Profiling
 Debt Slavery and Overconsumption
 New Forms of Crime and Fraud
 Polarizing and Isolating Eco Chambers (collapse of community)
 Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?)
 New Addictions and Dependencies (CT ‘relationships’?)
Some Opportunities - particularly later:
 Indiv. Intell./Performance Enhancement (Complete your sentences?)
 Group Intelligence/Perform. Enhancement (Symbiont networks)
 Subculture Diversity and Victimless Variety
 Global Communication & Collaboration (no language barrier)
 Digital and Educational Divides (greatly reduced)
 Indiv./Group/Culture Rights Representation (‘lobby twins’)
 Transparency and Accountablity of Corps, Institutions, Govts.
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© 2009 Accelerating.org
The Values of Progress
Where Do We Want the World to Go, As Leaders?
Where Does the World Want Us to Go?
The Values of Progress (and Profit)
My Personal Take. What’s Yours?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Evolutionary Values (Local, Bottom-Up)
Competition/Independence/Personal Advancement
Innovation/Creativity/Experimentation/Freedom
Individuality/Diversity/Intuition/Subjective Truth
Adaptability Values (Mix)
Positive Sumness/Morality/Democracy/Capitalism
Resiliency/Immunity/Security
Intelligence/Awareness/Learning/Adaptive Ability
Developmental Values (Global, Top-Down)
Cooperation/Dependence/Harmony
Sustainability/Convergent Unification/Protection
Universality/Generality/Rationality/Objective Truth
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Smart, John. 2008. Evo Devo Universe? In: Cosmos & Culture, Dick and Lupisella (eds) NASA Press.
Competition, Positive Sumness, Intelligence:
Value Investing for Profit
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Competition:
An Evolutionary Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: Growing Broadband
Access Gap (Wired and Wireless),
Due to a Lack of Competition (no
Meritocracy) in US & Australia, vs.
Japan, Taiwan, S. Korea, Canada,
Scandinavia, Germany, even UK!
- Monopoly and oligopoly telcos.
- Not a national priority for govt leaders.
- Policy delay tactics (fiber over wireless,
rural rollout same speed as urban)
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Solutions:
Govts: Study leader nation’s models. Quantify the loss.
Corps: Demand better service. Fund reform politicians.
Individuals: Pay more. Work with small ISPs.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Innovation:
An Evolutionary Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: Lack of Innovation in
Electric Cars, a massive energy
efficiency and grid development
opportunity.
- Oligopoly automakers have no incentive to
innovate until someone takes 3-5% of the
market (Innovator’s Dilemma).
- Big barriers to entry for small firms
- Industry delay tactics (hydrogen over
electric, electrics over plug-in hybrids, plugin’s delayed and crippled vs. potential)
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Solutions:
Govts: Quantify the loss. Subsidize factories, purchases.
Corps: Subsidize purchases, buy fleets from small mfg’s.
Individuals: Buy a Prius! Single best envir. decision avail.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Individuality:
An Evolutionary Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: Low Levels of Individual
Development in Our Educ. System,
a major national loss of creativity,
autonomy, productivity, & democracy.
- Kids will have 8-10 jobs. Lifelong learners!
- No opport. for personal experimentation
(Montessori/Waldorf/Steiner style)
- Too much testing, too many nat’l standards
- Teachers w/ little educ., pay and freedom.
- Early tracking, no civics education.
- Poor integration of vocational & academic
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Solutions:
Govts: Copy successful nations (Finland Phenomenon).
Corps: More selective hiring. More training and lobbying.
Individuals: Use online charter schools & ed. networks.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Positive Sumness:
An Evo Devo Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: Tech Acceleration &
Globalization (MNCs) Create
Increasing Rich-Poor Divides, and
zero-sum or negative sum politics.
- Since 1950’s, corps are larger than govts.
- Over the last 40 years, top 5% and top 1%
have gained major wealth while middle class
has lost real wealth in most countries.
- Scandinavia, Europe, Canada and Australia
have all kept a lid on this, to varying degrees.
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Solutions:
Govts: Trust busting, redistribution, progressive taxation.
Corps: More transparency, lower exec. pay multipliers.
Individuals: Buy goods from positive sum countries.
(Scandinavia, Germany, Canada, Australia, etc.)
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Resiliency:
An Evo Devo Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: Disproportionate,
Uneconomical , and Non-Rational
Responses to Risks/Catastrophes.
- 9/11 and America’s ‘War On Terror’.
- Big bailouts in Global Financial Crisis.
- Ignoring the ideal solutions (efficiency,
alternative energy) to Global Warming
- Putting personal gain ahead of cost-benefit
policy, and using emotions (fear) rather than
evidence and proportionality.
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Solutions:
Govts: Learn from biological immune systems.
Corps: Take an evidence-based approach to risk mgmt.
Individuals: Learn to save, self-insure, take personal
responsibility, fail often, lightly, & learn from failures.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Intelligence:
An Evo Devo Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: Lack of Enough BottomUp (Network and Individual)
Intelligence vs. Top-Down (Govt
and Corporate) Intelligence.
- Learned helplessness vs. recognition of
accelerating web and personal intelligence.
- Giving away our personal freedom and
power (growing the ‘Nanny State’).
- Brand hypnotism, no accounting for the
steep costs of bureaucracy and bigness.
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Solutions:
Govts: Help power shift from hierarchies to networks.
Corps: Lead online, empower networks & customers.
Individuals: Be a digital activist. Improve the web, your
online networks, and your digital self.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Cooperation:
A Developmental Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: More Global Coop, but
Less Ability and Desire to Form
Strong, Diverse Communities
Around our Unique, Local Values.
- Since 1920’s (mass consumption), we went
from many unique immigrant subcultures, to
one homogenized corporate culture.
- Since 1950’s, mass and centralized media,
+ standardized and weakening education =
withdrawal and apathy for local community,
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Solutions:
Govts: Build local & state govts. Take power from feds.
Corps: Work with, help your local govts and communities.
Individuals: Use iTV, Facebook, Foursquare, Yelp. Local
Mkts, Foods, Products, and Services. e-Voting!
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Sustainability:
A Developmental Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: Global CO2 Increase, and
Lack of Sufficient Growth in
Sustainable Energy Solutions.
- A trillion barrels of oil in the ground. Those
who own it want to make $100 trillion.
- No political or big corp support for energy
sols. Must come from small co’s and public.
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New York
Palo Alto
Solutions:
Govts: Efficiency is 90% of near term.
German solar power sys (10%).
Offshore floating wind (20%).
Thorium mini-nuke plants (20%).
Corps: Start efficiency initiatives, work w/ efficiency co’s.
Individuals: Plant and keep alive 1-5 trees a year. Drip
irrigation. Invest in efficiency co’s. Solar thermal & PV.
© 2011 Accelerating.org
Universality:
A Developmental Value
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Problem: We
Don’t Notice the
Development
Going On All
Around Us.
- Accelerating S&T.
- Econ development.
- Political development.
- Social development.
- Human development.
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New York
Palo Alto
Solutions:
More STEM Educ.
Tech Capacity focus
More Dev. Studies
We’re all heading toward Sweden, on our own
Wake up!
unique paths (see WorldValuesSurvey.org)
Australia and AMP:
An Outsider’s Perspective on Key Values
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Competition
Build more meritocracy, not just bureaucracy.
Comp. Intell.: Scour the world for solutions.
Innovation
Be digital innovators. Grow network and node
(indiv.) intelligence vs. pyramids (corps & govts).
Individuality
Choose your own way. Don’t follow America.
Be unique and diverse, whenever it makes sense.
Positive Sumness
Resiliency
Intelligence
Cooperation
Sustainability
Universality
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Palo Alto
I leave you
to fill these out
for yourself!
See and use developmental stages. Example:
Earning > Saving > Investing > Retiring > Philanthropy
Discussion
What do you think?