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5.1 Rates of Return 5-1 Measuring Ex-Post (Past) Returns •An example: Suppose you buy one share of a stock today for $45 and you hold it for one year and sell it for $52. You also received $8 in dividends at the end of the year. •(PB = $45, PS = $52 , CF = $8): •HPR = (52 - 45 + 8) / 45 = 33.33% 5-2 Arithmetic Average Finding the average HPR for a time series of returns: • i. Without compounding (AAR or Arithmetic Average Return): n HPR av g HPR T n T 1 • n = number of time periods 5-3 Arithmetic Average An example: You have the following rates of return on a stock: 2000 -21.56% 2001 44.63% 2002 23.35% 2003 20.98% 2004 3.11% 2005 34.46% 2006 17.62% n HPR av g HPR av g (-.2156 .4463 .2335 .2098 .0311 .3446 .1762) 17.51% 7 HPR T n T 1 AAR = 17.51% 5-4 Geometric Average An example: You have the following rates of return on a stock: 2000 -21.56% 2001 44.63% 2002 23.35% 2003 20.98% 2004 3.11% 2005 34.46% 2006 17.62% •With compounding (geometric average or GAR: Geometric Average Return): HPR av g n (1 HPR T ) T 1 1/ n 1 HPR avg (0.7844 1.44631.2335 1.2098 1.03111.3446 1.1762)1/7 1 15.61% GAR = 15.61% 5-5 Q: When should you use the GAR and when should you use the AAR? A1: When you are evaluating PAST RESULTS (ex-post): Use the AAR (average without compounding) if you ARE NOT reinvesting any cash flows received before the end of the period. Use the GAR (average with compounding) if you ARE reinvesting any cash flows received before the end of the period. A2: When you are trying to estimate an expected return (exante return): Use the AAR 5-6 Measuring Ex-Post (Past) Returns for a portfolio •Finding the average HPR for a portfolio of assets for a given time period: J HPR av g VI HPR I TV I1 •where VI = amount invested in asset I, •J = Total # of securities •and TV = total amount invested; •thus VI/TV = percentage of total investment invested in asset I 5-7 •For example: Suppose you have $1000 invested in a stock portfolio in September. You have $200 invested in Stock A, $300 in Stock B and $500 in Stock C. The HPR for the month of September for Stock A was 2%, for Stock B the HPR was 4% and for Stock C the HPR was - 5%. •The average HPR for the month of September for this portfolio is: J VI HPR av g HPR I TV I1 HPR avg (.02 (200/1000)) (.04 (300/1000)) (-.05 (500/1000)) -0.9% 5-8 5.2 Risk and Risk Premiums 5-9 Measuring Mean: Scenario or Subjective Returns a. Subjective or Scenario Subjective expected returns E(r) = S p(s) r(s) s E(r) = Expected Return p(s) = probability of a state r(s) = return if a state occurs 1 to s states 5-10 Measuring Variance or Dispersion of Returns a. Subjective or Scenario Variance σ 2 p(s) [rs E(r)] 2 s = [2]1/2 E(r) = Expected Return p(s) = probability of a state rs = return in state “s” 5-11 Numerical Example: Subjective or Scenario Distributions State Prob. of State Return 1 .2 - .05 2 .5 .05 3 .3 .15 E(r) = (.2)(-0.05) + (.5)(0.05) + (.3)(0.15) = 6% σ 2 p(s) [rs E(r)] 2 s 2 = [(.2)(-0.05-0.06)2 + (.5)(0.05- 0.06)2 + (.3)(0.15-0.06)2] 2 = 0.0049%2 = [ 0.0049]1/2 = .07 or 7% 5-12 Expost Expected Return & n HPR T r T 1 n Expost Variance : 2 r average HPR n # observatio ns n 1 ( ri r ) 2 n 1 i 1 Expost Standard Deviation: σ σ 2 Annualizing the statistics: rannual rperiod # periods annual period # periods 5-13 Using Ex-Post Returns to estimate Expected HPR Estimating Expected HPR (E[r]) from ex-post data. Use the arithmetic average of past returns as a forecast of expected future returns and, Perhaps apply some (usually ad-hoc) adjustment to past returns Problems? • Which historical time period? • Have to adjust for current economic situation 5-14 Characteristics of Probability Distributions Arithmetic average & usually most likely _ 1. Mean: __________________________________ 2. Median: Middle observation _________________ 3. Variance or standard deviation: Dispersion of returns about the mean 4. Skewness:_______________________________ Long tailed distribution, either side 5. Leptokurtosis: ______________________________ Too many observations in the tails If a distribution is approximately normal, the distribution 1 and 3 is fully described by Characteristics _____________________ 5-15 Normal Distribution Risk is the possibility of getting returns different from expected. Average = Median measures deviations above the mean as well as below the mean. E[r] = 10% = 20% 5-16 5.3 The Historical Record 5-17 Frequency distributions of annual HPRs, 1926-2008 5-18 Rates of return on stocks, bonds and bills, 1926-2008 5-19 Annual Holding Period Returns Statistics 1926-2008 From Table 5.3 Series Geom. Arith. Excess Mean% Mean% Return% Kurt. Skew. World Stk 9.20 11.00 7.25 1.03 -0.16 US Lg. Stk 9.34 11.43 7.68 -0.10 -0.26 11.43 17.26 13.51 1.60 0.81 World Bnd 5.56 5.92 2.17 1.10 0.77 LT Bond 5.31 5.60 1.85 0.80 0.51 Sm. Stk • Geometric mean: Best measure of compound historical return • Deviations from normality? • Arithmetic Mean: Expected return 5-20 Historical Real Returns & Sharpe Ratios Series World Stk US Lg. Stk Sm. Stk World Bnd LT Bond Real Returns% 6.00 6.13 8.17 Sharpe Ratio 0.37 0.37 0.36 2.46 2.22 0.24 0.24 • Real returns have been much higher for stocks than for bonds • Sharpe ratios measure the excess return relative to standard deviation. • The higher the Sharpe ratio the better. • Stocks have had much higher Sharpe ratios than bonds. 5-21 5.4 Inflation and Real Rates of Return 5-22 Inflation, Taxes and Returns The average inflation rate from 1966 to 2005 was _____. 4.29% This relatively small inflation rate reduces the terminal value of $1 invested in T-bills in 1966 from a nominal value of ______ _____. $10.08 in 2005 to a real value of $1.63 Taxes are paid on _______ nominal investment income. This real investment income even further. reduces _____ 6% nominal, pre-tax rate of return and you You earn a ____ 15% tax bracket and face a _____ are in a ____ 4.29%inflation rate. What is your real after tax rate of return? rreal [6% x (1 - 0.15)] – 4.29% 0.81%; taxed on nominal 5-23 Real vs. Nominal Rates Fisher effect: Approximation real rate nominal rate - inflation rate rreal rnom - i rreal = real interest rate Example rnom = 9%, i = 6% rnom = nominal interest rate rreal 3% i = expected inflation rate Fisher effect: Exact rreal = [(1 + rnom) / (1 + i)] – 1 or rreal = (rnom - i) / (1 + i) rreal = (9% - 6%) / (1.06) = 2.83% The exact real rate is less than the approximate real rate. 5-24