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Slides by John Loucks St. Edward’s University © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 1 Chapter 3, Part B Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Measures Measures of Distribution Shape, Relative Location, and Detecting Outliers Exploratory Data Analysis Measures of Association Between Two Variables The Weighted Mean and Working with Grouped Data © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 2 Measures of Distribution Shape, Relative Location, and Detecting Outliers Distribution Shape z-Scores Chebyshev’s Theorem Empirical Rule Detecting Outliers © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 3 Distribution Shape: Skewness An important measure of the shape of a distribution is called skewness. The formula for the skewness of sample data is n xi x Skewness (n 1)(n 2) s 3 Skewness can be easily computed using statistical software. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 4 Distribution Shape: Skewness Symmetric (not skewed) • Skewness is zero. • Mean and median are equal. Relative Frequency .35 Skewness = 0 .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 .05 0 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 5 Distribution Shape: Skewness Moderately Skewed Left • Skewness is negative. • Mean will usually be less than the median. Relative Frequency .35 Skewness = .31 .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 .05 0 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 6 Distribution Shape: Skewness Moderately Skewed Right • Skewness is positive. • Mean will usually be more than the median. Relative Frequency .35 Skewness = .31 .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 .05 0 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 7 Distribution Shape: Skewness Highly Skewed Right • Skewness is positive (often above 1.0). • Mean will usually be more than the median. Relative Frequency .35 Skewness = 1.25 .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 .05 0 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 8 Distribution Shape: Skewness Example: Apartment Rents Seventy efficiency apartments were randomly sampled in a college town. The monthly rent prices for the apartments are listed below in ascending order. 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 Slide 9 Distribution Shape: Skewness Example: Apartment Rents Relative Frequency .35 Skewness = .92 .30 .25 .20 .15 .10 .05 0 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 10 z-Scores The z-score is often called the standardized value. It denotes the number of standard deviations a data value xi is from the mean. xi x zi s Excel’s STANDARDIZE function can be used to compute the z-score. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 11 z-Scores An observation’s z-score is a measure of the relative location of the observation in a data set. A data value less than the sample mean will have a z-score less than zero. A data value greater than the sample mean will have a z-score greater than zero. A data value equal to the sample mean will have a z-score of zero. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 12 z-Scores Example: Apartment Rents • z-Score of Smallest Value (425) xi x 425 490.80 z 1.20 s 54.74 Standardized Values for Apartment Rents -1.20 -0.93 -0.75 -0.47 -0.20 0.35 1.54 -1.11 -0.93 -0.75 -0.38 -0.11 0.44 1.54 -1.11 -0.93 -0.75 -0.38 -0.01 0.62 1.63 -1.02 -0.84 -0.75 -0.34 -0.01 0.62 1.81 -1.02 -0.84 -0.75 -0.29 -0.01 0.62 1.99 -1.02 -0.84 -0.56 -0.29 0.17 0.81 1.99 -1.02 -0.84 -0.56 -0.29 0.17 1.06 1.99 -1.02 -0.84 -0.56 -0.20 0.17 1.08 1.99 -0.93 -0.75 -0.47 -0.20 0.17 1.45 2.27 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. -0.93 -0.75 -0.47 -0.20 0.35 1.45 2.27 Slide 13 Chebyshev’s Theorem At least (1 - 1/z2) of the items in any data set will be within z standard deviations of the mean, where z is any value greater than 1. Chebyshev’s theorem requires z > 1, but z need not be an integer. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 14 Chebyshev’s Theorem At least 75% of the data values must be within z = 2 standard deviations of the mean. At least 89% of the data values must be within z = 3 standard deviations of the mean. At least 94% of the data values must be within z = 4 standard deviations of the mean. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 15 Chebyshev’s Theorem Example: Apartment Rents Let z = 1.5 with x = 490.80 and s = 54.74 At least (1 1/(1.5)2) = 1 0.44 = 0.56 or 56% of the rent values must be between x - z(s) = 490.80 1.5(54.74) = 409 and x + z(s) = 490.80 + 1.5(54.74) = 573 (Actually, 86% of the rent values are between 409 and 573.) © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 16 Empirical Rule When the data are believed to approximate a bell-shaped distribution … The empirical rule can be used to determine the percentage of data values that must be within a specified number of standard deviations of the mean. The empirical rule is based on the normal distribution, which is covered in Chapter 6. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 17 Empirical Rule For data having a bell-shaped distribution: 68.26% of the values of a normal random variable are within +/- 1 standard deviation of its mean. 95.44% of the values of a normal random variable are within +/- 2 standard deviations of its mean. 99.72% of the values of a normal random variable are within +/- 3 standard deviations of its mean. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 18 Empirical Rule 99.72% 95.44% 68.26% m – 3s m – 1s m – 2s m m + 3s m + 1s m + 2s © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. x Slide 19 Detecting Outliers An outlier is an unusually small or unusually large value in a data set. A data value with a z-score less than -3 or greater than +3 might be considered an outlier. It might be: • an incorrectly recorded data value • a data value that was incorrectly included in the data set • a correctly recorded data value that belongs in the data set © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 20 Detecting Outliers Example: Apartment Rents • The most extreme z-scores are -1.20 and 2.27 • Using |z| > 3 as the criterion for an outlier, there are no outliers in this data set. Standardized Values for Apartment Rents -1.20 -0.93 -0.75 -0.47 -0.20 0.35 1.54 -1.11 -0.93 -0.75 -0.38 -0.11 0.44 1.54 -1.11 -0.93 -0.75 -0.38 -0.01 0.62 1.63 -1.02 -0.84 -0.75 -0.34 -0.01 0.62 1.81 -1.02 -0.84 -0.75 -0.29 -0.01 0.62 1.99 -1.02 -0.84 -0.56 -0.29 0.17 0.81 1.99 -1.02 -0.84 -0.56 -0.29 0.17 1.06 1.99 -1.02 -0.84 -0.56 -0.20 0.17 1.08 1.99 -0.93 -0.75 -0.47 -0.20 0.17 1.45 2.27 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. -0.93 -0.75 -0.47 -0.20 0.35 1.45 2.27 Slide 21 Exploratory Data Analysis Exploratory data analysis procedures enable us to use simple arithmetic and easy-to-draw pictures to summarize data. We simply sort the data values into ascending order and identify the five-number summary and then construct a box plot. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 22 Five-Number Summary 1 Smallest Value 2 First Quartile 3 Median 4 Third Quartile 5 Largest Value © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 23 Five-Number Summary Example: Apartment Rents First Quartile = 445 Lowest Value = 425 Median = 475 Third Quartile = 525 Largest Value = 615 425 440 450 465 480 510 575 430 440 450 470 485 515 575 430 440 450 470 490 525 580 435 445 450 472 490 525 590 435 445 450 475 490 525 600 435 445 460 475 500 535 600 435 445 460 475 500 549 600 435 445 460 480 500 550 600 440 450 465 480 500 570 615 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. 440 450 465 480 510 570 615 Slide 24 Box Plot A box plot is a graphical summary of data that is based on a five-number summary. A key to the development of a box plot is the computation of the median and the quartiles Q1 and Q3. Box plots provide another way to identify outliers. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 25 Box Plot Example: Apartment Rents • A box is drawn with its ends located at the first and third quartiles. • A vertical line is drawn in the box at the location of the median (second quartile). 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575 600 625 Q1 = 445 Q3 = 525 Q2 = 475 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 26 Box Plot Limits are located (not drawn) using the interquartile range (IQR). Data outside these limits are considered outliers. The locations of each outlier is shown with the symbol * . continued © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 27 Box Plot Example: Apartment Rents • The lower limit is located 1.5(IQR) below Q1. Lower Limit: Q1 - 1.5(IQR) = 445 - 1.5(80) = 325 • The upper limit is located 1.5(IQR) above Q3. Upper Limit: Q3 + 1.5(IQR) = 525 + 1.5(80) = 645 • There are no outliers (values less than 325 or greater than 645) in the apartment rent data. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 28 Box Plot Example: Apartment Rents • Whiskers (dashed lines) are drawn from the ends of the box to the smallest and largest data values inside the limits. 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575 600 625 Smallest value inside limits = 425 Largest value inside limits = 615 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 29 Measures of Association Between Two Variables Thus far we have examined numerical methods used to summarize the data for one variable at a time. Often a manager or decision maker is interested in the relationship between two variables. Two descriptive measures of the relationship between two variables are covariance and correlation coefficient. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 30 Covariance The covariance is a measure of the linear association between two variables. Positive values indicate a positive relationship. Negative values indicate a negative relationship. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 31 Covariance The covariance is computed as follows: sxy ( xi x )( yi y ) n 1 ( xi m x )( yi m y ) s xy N for samples for populations © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 32 Correlation Coefficient Correlation is a measure of linear association and not necessarily causation. Just because two variables are highly correlated, it does not mean that one variable is the cause of the other. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 33 Correlation Coefficient The correlation coefficient is computed as follows: rxy sxy sx s y for samples xy s xy s xs y for populations © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 34 Correlation Coefficient The coefficient can take on values between -1 and +1. Values near -1 indicate a strong negative linear relationship. Values near +1 indicate a strong positive linear relationship. The closer the correlation is to zero, the weaker the relationship. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 35 Covariance and Correlation Coefficient Example: Golfing Study A golfer is interested in investigating the relationship, if any, between driving distance and 18-hole score. Average Driving Average Distance (yds.) 18-Hole Score 277.6 69 259.5 71 269.1 70 267.0 70 255.6 71 272.9 69 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 36 Covariance and Correlation Coefficient Example: Golfing Study x y 277.6 259.5 269.1 267.0 255.6 272.9 69 71 70 70 71 69 Average 267.0 70.0 Std. Dev. 8.2192 .8944 ( xi x ) ( yi y ) ( xi x )( yi y ) 10.65 -7.45 2.15 0.05 -11.35 5.95 -1.0 1.0 0 0 1.0 -1.0 -10.65 -7.45 0 0 -11.35 -5.95 Total -35.40 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 37 Covariance and Correlation Coefficient Example: Golfing Study • Sample Covariance sxy ( x x )( y i n1 i y) 35.40 7.08 61 • Sample Correlation Coefficient sxy 7.08 rxy -.9631 sx sy (8.2192)(.8944) © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 38 Using Excel to Compute the Covariance and Correlation Coefficient Example: Golfing Study • Excel Formula Worksheet 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 A B C D Average 18-Hole Drive Score 277.6 69 Pop. Covariance =COVARIANCE.S(A2:A7,B2:B7) 259.5 71 Samp. Correlation =CORREL(A2:A7,B2:B7) 269.1 70 267.0 70 255.6 71 272.9 69 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 39 Using Excel to Compute the Covariance and Correlation Coefficient Example: Golfing Study • Excel Value Worksheet 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 A B C Average 18-Hole Drive Score 277.6 69 Pop. Covariance 259.5 71 Samp. Correlation 269.1 70 267.0 70 255.6 71 272.9 69 D -5.9 -0.9631 Sample Covariance = sxy = n/(n – 1)sxy = 6/(6 – 1)(-5.9) = -7.08 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 40 The Weighted Mean and Working with Grouped Data Weighted Mean Mean for Grouped Data Variance for Grouped Data Standard Deviation for Grouped Data © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 41 Weighted Mean When the mean is computed by giving each data value a weight that reflects its importance, it is referred to as a weighted mean. In the computation of a grade point average (GPA), the weights are the number of credit hours earned for each grade. When data values vary in importance, the analyst must choose the weight that best reflects the importance of each value. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 42 Weighted Mean wx x w i i i where: xi = value of observation i wi = weight for observation i © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 43 Grouped Data The weighted mean computation can be used to obtain approximations of the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the grouped data. To compute the weighted mean, we treat the midpoint of each class as though it were the mean of all items in the class. We compute a weighted mean of the class midpoints using the class frequencies as weights. Similarly, in computing the variance and standard deviation, the class frequencies are used as weights. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 44 Mean for Grouped Data Sample Data fM x i i n Population Data fM m i i N where: fi = frequency of class i Mi = midpoint of class i © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 45 Sample Mean for Grouped Data Example: Apartment Rents The previously presented sample of apartment rents is shown here as grouped data in the form of a frequency distribution. Rent ($) Frequency 420-439 440-459 460-479 480-499 500-519 520-539 540-559 560-579 580-599 600-619 8 17 12 8 7 4 2 4 2 6 © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 46 Sample Mean for Grouped Data Example: Apartment Rents Rent ($) 420-439 440-459 460-479 480-499 500-519 520-539 540-559 560-579 580-599 600-619 Total fi 8 17 12 8 7 4 2 4 2 6 70 Mi 429.5 449.5 469.5 489.5 509.5 529.5 549.5 569.5 589.5 609.5 f iM i 3436.0 7641.5 5634.0 3916.0 3566.5 2118.0 1099.0 2278.0 1179.0 3657.0 34525.0 34, 525 x 493.21 70 This approximation differs by $2.41 from the actual sample mean of $490.80. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 47 Variance for Grouped Data For sample data 2 f i ( Mi x ) s n 1 2 For population data 2 f ( M m ) i i s2 N © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 48 Sample Variance for Grouped Data Example: Apartment Rents Rent ($) 420-439 440-459 460-479 480-499 500-519 520-539 540-559 560-579 580-599 600-619 Total fi 8 17 12 8 7 4 2 4 2 6 70 Mi 429.5 449.5 469.5 489.5 509.5 529.5 549.5 569.5 589.5 609.5 Mi - x -63.7 -43.7 -23.7 -3.7 16.3 36.3 56.3 76.3 96.3 116.3 (M i - x )2 f i (M i - x )2 4058.96 32471.71 1910.56 32479.59 562.16 6745.97 13.76 110.11 265.36 1857.55 1316.96 5267.86 3168.56 6337.13 5820.16 23280.66 9271.76 18543.53 13523.36 81140.18 208234.29 continued © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 49 Sample Variance for Grouped Data Example: Apartment Rents • Sample Variance s2 = 208,234.29/(70 – 1) = 3,017.89 • Sample Standard Deviation s 3,017.89 54.94 This approximation differs by only $.20 from the actual standard deviation of $54.74. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 50 End of Chapter 3, Part B © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 51