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The Effect of Climate on Infectious Disease • What changes will occur epidemiologically? • How do we correlate changes in climate to global changes in infectious disease? • What technologies and tools are used to analyze, predict, and monitor disease spread? Robin Cochran-Dirksen Kinds of health impacts resulting from climate change: • Direct- result from weather extremes. • Consequences from ecological disruption. • Consequences resulting from climate-induced • economic disruption, e.g. traumatic, infectious, nutritional, psychological Changes in human health as a result of climate change will be indicated by alterations in geographic range and seasonality of infectious diseases. Robin Cochran-Dirksen Robin Cochran-Dirksen Challenges to connecting changes in infectious disease to climate change. •Climate influences are modulated by interactions with other ecological processes, social conditions, and adaptive policies. •Climate change is just one environmental change that simultaneously impact human health. Determinants of vectorborne diseases • Vector survival and reproduction • Biting rate • Incubation rate Robin Cochran-Dirksen The tasks of the researchers 1. Establishing baseline relationships between 2. 3. 4. 5. weather and health. Seeking evidence of early effects of climate change. Scenario-based predictive models Evaluating adaptation options Estimating the co-incidental benefits and costs of mitigation and adaptation. Robin Cochran-Dirksen Environmental factors affecting infectious disease • Warmer temps enhance vector breeding and reduce the pathogens maturation time within the vector. • Expanded pathogen/vector range introduces the pathogen to populations with little protective immunity. Robin Cochran-Dirksen Social factors affecting health • Population density • Level of economic development of the country • Food availability • Pre-existing health status • Availability of health care Robin Cochran-Dirksen Historic evidence of the connection of climate to infectious disease • The link of climatic events has been studied for a century in the Punjab. Robin Cochran-Dirksen Applying Technologies: Types of Models •Statistical •Process Based •Landscape-based Models Robin Cochran-Dirksen Statistical Models • Work by deriving the relationship between current geographic distribution and the current location-specific climatic conditions • These models have been applied to climate impacts on malaria, dengue fever and in the U.S., enchephalitis. Robin Cochran-Dirksen Process-based (mathematical) models • Use equations that express the scientifically documented relationship between climatic variables and biological parameters- e.g., vector breeding, parasite incubation rate, Robin Cochran-Dirksen Landscape-based Modeling • Combines the first two models with the use of spatial analytical methods, to study the effects of both climatic and other environmental factors (e.g. different vegetation types- often measured, in the model development stage by ground-based or remote sensors). Robin Cochran-Dirksen Models allow them to create rubrics: Robin Cochran-Dirksen A Specific Example of Model Application • A study called Regional-scale climatevariability synchrony of cholera epidemics in West Africa was published in 2007 in Infectious Disease • Methods: Wavelet and derived analyses of the evolution of the periodic component over time. Robin Cochran-Dirksen Wavelet analyses Robin Cochran-Dirksen Robin Cochran-Dirksen Another example • A monitoring program over several years in a lake in Austria in order to identify the preferred niche. • Findings: they discovered a significant correleation of the frequency of V. cholerae with temperature, zooplankton biomass, and conductivity. Robin Cochran-Dirksen Robin Cochran-Dirksen The Future Climate Change Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions Conference Held in Copenhagen 10-12 March, 2009 was attended by more than 2,500 delegates from almost 80 countries. The synthesis report will be published in June and presented to all participants at the UN Climate Change Conference to be held in December Robin Cochran-Dirksen