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Likely Climate Changes, Hazards and Impacts and Possible Adaptations in the Pyanj River Basin Climate Change Hazards Impacts Possible Adaptations Increased threat to life, Resiliency measures in at buildings and land in risk villages based on mountain valleys of periodic risk assessment of More ice dam bursts GBAO due to ice dam ice dams e.g. early warning bursts systems, evacuation plans, Lena, this slide is based on Table 8-3 in the Mid-term Report, therefore General glacier hard defences retreat most of the text is already translated Increased erosion of unprotected river banks Investment in hard flood Individual glacier and destruction of flood defences and maintenance surges embankments & other machinery Increasing riparian infrastructure in temperature More melt water in GBAO and Khatlon in the Preparation of flood medium-term short and medium-term management plans, flood warning systems Larger summer Reduced surface water floods in main rivers supply to downstream Water sharing agreements, users in Khatlon, and storage, demand Less melt water in also Afghanistan, management, irrigation long-term Uzbekistan, efficiency, forestation Turkmenistan and the Aral Sea in the long-term ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Likely Climate Changes, Hazards and Impacts and Possible Adaptations in the Pyanj River Basin (continued) Climate Change Hazards Less soil moisture Impacts Increased crop water requirements Possible Adaptations Alternative crop systems Increased irrigation Less groundwater Reduced spring flow and efficiency recharge Lena, this slide is based on Table 8-3 in the Mid-term Report, therefore borehole yield Alternative water supplies most of the text is already translated Increasing evapotranspiration Less snowfall Less replenishment of glaciers and smaller snowfields in the mountains; reduced river flow in summer Less water available directly from melting snow in the dry season Drought management plans In the long term, less water available from melting ice Dams and reservoirs Fewer avalanches Irrigation efficiency More rockfalls Forestation Water sharing agreements Demand management ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Likely Climate Changes, Hazards and Impacts and Possible Adaptations in the Pyanj River Basin (continued) Climate Change Hazards Impacts Possible Adaptations Detailed survey and assessment of flash flood and mudflow risks in Increased threat to life, lowlands (loess) and upland buildings and land in Lena, this slide is based Table 8-3 in the Mid-term Report, therefore More fluvialon flash (eroding mountain GBAO and Khatlon More intense rain floods and topography) most of the textmudflows is already translated adjacent to steep tributary rivers and streams Investment in flood defence infrastructure at priority risk zones ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments