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Waking up the Giant The Key Role of Energy Efficiency in Abating Climate Change Prof. Dr. Ernst Worrell Chair Energy, materials & the Environment, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University, The Netherlands Director Energy Use & Efficiency, Ecofys, Utrecht, The Netherlands Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Therm Joule Negajoule GigaJoule kWh MegaJoule Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation BTU Kill-a-Watt Introduction • Climate Change – IPCC 4th Assessment Report Results – Mitigation: potentials & contributions • Energy Efficiency & Climate Change • Key Role of Energy Efficiency – Industry – Buildings • Realizing Energy Efficiency • Conclusions Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation 2007 Nobel Peace Prize Awarded to IPCC IPCC Process • IPCC charged with assessing existing scientific basis for climate change and response • Fourth Assessment Report completed in 2007 • Three Working Groups – WG III – Mitigation – Technology and Economics • Summary for Policy Makers – WG III report approved in May 2007 – Line by line approval by participating governments – Four-day approval process – WGIII Bangkok, May 2007 – Government interventions improve accuracy of reporting with appropriate caveats Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation CO2 Emission Sources CO2 Emissions to Atmosphere Cement, lime Ammonia Plastics Extraction Materials Production Anaerobic Digestion Incineration Processing Consumption Waste Management Recycling and reuse Natural resources Waste CO2 from energy CO2 from feedstock (fossil fuels, limestone) CO2 from waste treatment (fossil and biomass) Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Between 1970 and 2004 Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Increased by 70 % Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation 180 Even With Current Policies Global GHG 160 Emissions Will Continue to Grow 140 120 IPCC SRES Scenarios: • 2030 GHG emissions 50-76 Gt CO2 or 25-90% higher relative to 2000 • Depending on population and economic growth 100 80 60 40 20 Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation A1F1 A2 A1B A1T B1 B2 95th 75th 2000 0 Substantial economic potential for GHG Emission mitigation over the coming decades < $0 < $20 < $50 < $100 < $20 30 < $100 35 BOTTOM-UP 25 20 15 10 5 estimated mitigation potential (Gt CO2-eq) in 2030 estimated mitigation potential (Gt CO2-eq) in 2030 35 < $50 TOP-DOWN 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 low end of range high end of range low end of range high end of range Emissions 2004: 43GtCO2eq: 2030: SRES A1B: 68GtCO2eq ; SRES B2: 49 GtCO2eq Note: estimates do not explicitly include non-technical options such as lifestyle changes Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation What does US$ 50/ tCO2eq Mean? • Crude oil: ~US$25/barrel • Gasoline: ~12 USc/litre (50 USc/gallon) • Electricity: – from coal fired plant: ~5 USc/kWh – from gas fired plant: ~1.5 USc/kWh Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation 0 Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation 5/3/09 1/3/09 9/3/08 5/3/08 1/3/08 9/3/07 5/3/07 1/3/07 9/3/06 5/3/06 1/3/06 9/3/05 5/3/05 1/3/05 9/3/04 5/3/04 1/3/04 9/3/03 5/3/03 1/3/03 9/3/02 5/3/02 1/3/02 9/3/01 5/3/01 1/3/01 9/3/00 5/3/00 1/3/00 9/3/99 5/3/99 1/3/99 9/3/98 5/3/98 1/3/98 9/3/97 5/3/97 1/3/97 Average World Crude ($/bbl) For Comparison: Oil Prices 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Despite most severe economic crisis since the 1930’s energy and resource prices stay high or are increasing again! Mitigation Investments are Limited GDP GDP without mitigation 80% 77% GDP with stringent mitigation current Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation ~1 year Time All Sectors and Regions have the Potential to Contribute Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Reducing GHG Emissions • The need to stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at sustainable levels will demand strong reductions in global GHG emissions • Emission reduction in materials production possible by: – improving energy efficiency – reducing the emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases – capture and sequestration of CO2 emissions – increased use of renewable energy and feedstocks – improving the efficiency with which we use materials • Focus on integrated energy and material efficiency strategies • In next decades energy efficiency key Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Emission reduction pathways IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Energy Efficiency Key to Reduce CO2 Emissions by 2030 100% 20% 21% 15% 5% 80% 10% 60% 17% 5% 7% 12% 21% 8% 1% 4% 7% 10% 40% 58% 63% 67% Transition economies Developing countries 49% 20% 0% World OECD End-use efficiency gains Fuel switching in end uses Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation Increased renewables in power generation Increased nuclear in power generation Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute more than half of decrease in emissions Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Energy Use Higher Without Efficiency 450 400 Other 350 Agriculture/forestry EJ/year 300 Industry 250 200 Transport 150 Services 100 50 Buildings 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 • World energy demand would have been much higher without energy efficiency efforts since the 1970s • But not sufficient to stabilize world energy use Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Global Efficiency Effort too Small • Global investment in energy efficiency in 2007 was 60 billion Euro • Promising developments in some sectors and some countries • Overall effort too small, global energy use grew by 3% per year (2003- 2007) • Download from: www.reeep.org Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation EU: 2030 GHG Emissions Reductions Transport, 9% Europe Households, 29% Services, 15% Fossil fuel extraction, 1% Waste, 2% Agriculture, 4% Other, 1% Energy supply, 32% Industry, 7% Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Energy Efficiency - Buildings • Buildings responsible for 10.6 GtCO2-eq. of GHG emissions, of which 80% from energy use • Between 20 and 40% of energy used to maintain building environment – Building envelope • Walls • Windows – Passive and active use of solar energy – Efficient appliances • Lighting and appliances other key areas Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Netherlands: Residential space heating and hot water production Consumption per dwelling, GJ/year (NL) 1975 – average 98 1998 – average 63 Standard 1996/1998/2000 – new 45/38/32 Present best in the market – new 17 Future – new Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation 0–6 Specific energy use (kJ per m2 per HDD) Insulation Levels Not Optimized 300 Canada Italy United Kingdom China, urban 250 Wall Insulation Levels New Construction France Japan United States China, rural 200 150 100 50 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation 2005 2010 Technologies to increase residential heating efficiency • Advanced insulation materials (vacuum) and glazing • Heat storage in phase change materials (factor 10) • Optimum combination of passive and active solar energy • New construction methods and integrated building design Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Success is Possible: Top Runner TV receivers 1997-2003 26% VCRs 1997-2003 74% Room air conditioners 1998-2004 68% Refrigerators 1998-2004 55% Freezers 1998-2004 30% Passenger vehicles 1995-2005 23% Freight vehicles 1995-2005 22% Vending machines 2000-2005 37% Computers 1997-2005 99% Magnetic disc units 1997-2005 98% Fluorescent lights 1997-2005 36% Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Industry: Global material consumption increases Rapidly ..but global material consumption will grow rapidly, 1.8E+09 due to growing demand in developing countries Iron Cement Steel and constant demand in industrialized countries 1.6E+09 1.4E+09 Cement Aluminum Copper Ammonia Production (ton) 1.2E+09 1.0E+09 Steel 8.0E+08 Iron 6.0E+08 4.0E+08 2.0E+08 Ammonia (N) Aluminum Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 0.0E+00 Potentials exists in all Industrial Sectors (2030) OECD North America OECD Pacific OECD Europe Russia China India Brazil 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% -16% Iron and steel Chemicals Non-metallic minerals Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Paper and pulp Other industries Industrial Energy Efficiency Opportunities • Cross-Cutting – Steam systems – Cooling/Refrigeration – Motor Systems 10-20% 20-40% ~ 30% • Sector Specific – Iron & Steel – Cement – Chemicals Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation 15-40% 10-40% 20-25% Realizing Savings: Manage your Energy • Successful management: – Energy bill is not an act of God – Recognizes the “human factor” – Creates an organization-wide system and program for managing energy – Delivers sustained reductions over time and is designed for continual improvement – Relates itself to the core business of the organization Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Energy Management Pitfalls Energy typically considered a “technical issue”: – Decentralized and not strongly organized – Under-staffed or out-sourced – Changes in management and organization – Technology oriented – Project and not program oriented – Reactive – Undervalued – Considered capital intensive – Lack of upper management support or involvement Resulting in poor planning and decision making Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Success Factors for Energy Management • Commitment of top management • Clear and measurable targets • Information and management systems in place • Regularly assess and track performance • Involvement of all levels in organization • Stable organization • Resources and time allocated • Continuous program • Excellent communication • Networking • External sparring partners • Recognition Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation A Systematic Approach • Plan (target) • Do (implement) • Check (monitor) • Act (adjust) Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Energy Management: Seven Steps to Change the Mindset 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Make commitment to continuous improvement Assess performance Set goals Create action plan Implement action plan Evaluate progress Recognize achievements Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Conclusions • Climate change and high energy prices are here to stay • Energy-efficiency is the key response strategy • There is substantial potential for energy efficiency improvement in the short, medium and long-term • We are not running out of technologies to improve energy efficiency, economic and environmental performance, and neither will we in the future: vacuum insulation is an example • Continuous innovation is key for further bridging the gap between thermodynamics and current energy use • Strategic energy management is essential to recognize and realize the promise of energy efficiency Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Thank you for your attention Ernst Worrell Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University [email protected] Ecofys [email protected] Copernicus Institute Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation