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Global Warming
and Science
April 21, 2008
Dr. Nicholas Drapela
Department of Chemistry,
Oregon State University
Who Am I?
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Current Faculty, OSU Chemistry Department
Education
– B.S., Science Education, Chemistry and Physics
– Ph.D., Chemistry, Organic Natural Product Synthesis
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Not a Republican
Own no stocks in oil companies (or any other
companies)
Love the outdoors and the environment
Love polar bears and clean air and water
Why This Talk?
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The Global Warming social
phenomenon
The Global Warming mystery
– Scientific perspectives
– Journalistic perspectives
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A story of discovery
Truth – Some thoughts
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The truth has no agenda
The truth is not dependent on
consensus, real or artificial
The challenge of finding the truth
Science – The Focus
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This talk focuses on the science behind
Global Warming
Next week’s talk: Sociopolitical aspects
These talks are intended for general
audiences
Introductory Points
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Successful societal endeavors must be
based on factual information, not
popularity
Any new theory bears the burden of
proof, not the other way around
Part 1
What is global warming?
Global Warming
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The unnatural warming of the entire
earth, caused by increases in carbon
dioxide due to human activities, which
is a threat to life on earth as we know
it.
Key points:
– Caused by CO2
– produced by human activity
– represents serious threat to the earth
http://www.ems.psu.edu/~fraser/Bad/BadGreenhouse.html
What Makes Up This
Greenhouse?
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Gases in our atmosphere which absorb
IR waves and radiate some of the heat
back toward the earth
– Methane
– Nitrous oxide
– Chlorofluorocarbons
– Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Global Warming Doctrine
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Modern society burns fossil fuels such as
– Gasoline, natural gas, coal
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All of these give off CO2 as they burn
The added CO2 in the atmosphere increases the
greenhouse effect on the earth
This is increasing the temperature of the earth
beyond its normal range
Soon, this will result in disastrous consequences
for life on earth
The only way to avoid this is to reduce world CO2
emissions
Predictions From Global
Warming
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Rising sea levels
Massive drought
Food shortages
Species extinction
Severe natural
disasters
Disease, famine,
death
http://climate-change.suite101.com/article.cfm/global_warming_predictions
http://www.worldwildlife.org/climate/science/arcticReport.cfm
Global Warming
Philosophy
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This is an
existential
world crisis
We are
running out
of time
Part 2
None of this is true
Preview
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There is no factual evidence to show that
the earth is now above its normal,
historical temperature range.
There is no factual evidence to show that
it soon will be, or ever will be.
Even if it were, CO2 could not be causing
it.
CO2 Is Not a Pollutant
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It is a critical part of the biosphere
Without CO2, life could not exist
Asbestos, dioxin, chlorofluorocarbons, heavy
metal ions, organomercury
compounds…these are pollutants
=
Fact #1
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There is indeed a greenhouse effect on
the earth; and that is good
If there were not, the earth’s temperature
would drop by roughly 60°F, ending life as
we know it on earth
Fact #2
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Global Warming theory is based on
models, not on evidence
These computer models are made up by
people, and are limited by
– the programmer
– our scientific knowledge
– the ethics of the people who invent them
http://www.physorg.com/news593.html
The
Famous
Hockey
Stick
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The only
irregular part
of the graph
is the model,
not the data
McIntyre, Stephen; Ross McKitrick, Geophysical Research Letters 2005, 2, 32
Fact #3
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These models have already
shown to be incorrect
Model prediction:
Troposphere warming
Actual fact: No significant
troposphere warming is
occurring
– Balloon and satellite data
agree on this independently
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=/Nation/archive/200205/NAT20020514b.html
Hurricanes
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Model prediction: 2006
worst hurricane year on
record
Actual fact: 2006, 2007
two of the calmest
hurricane seasons in
history
Many other model failures
exist
http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/11/30/hurricanes/index.html
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/stormcenter/2005-11-30-hurricane-cycle_x.htm
Past Predictions
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“In ten years all important
animal life in the sea will be
extinct. Large areas of
coastline will have to be
evacuated because of the
stench of dead fish.”
– Paul Ehrlich, Center for
Conservation Biology, Stanford
University
– Predicted in 1970
Fact #4
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Global warming predictions commonly
change to fit whatever data is most
recently discovered
– More rain, then less rain
– Ice cap melting, then ice cap growing
– Drought, then flooding
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No piece of information can be used to
disprove the doctrine
http://www.livescience.com/environment/070531_gw_rainfall.html
Fact #5
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Weather records show that increased
human CO2 emissions have been linked to
decreased earth temperatures from 19401980
Fact #6
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The amount of CO2 released and absorbed by
oceans each year dwarfs the amount emitted by
humans
93% of all CO2 in the earth and its atmosphere
is contained in the ocean
http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Bi-Ca/Carbon-Dioxide-in-the-Ocean-and-Atmosphere.html
Fact #7
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When oceans
warm, they
release CO2
This is why
[CO2] has
increased and
decreased
over time
Inconveniently Separated
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Temperature/C
O2 correlation
in ice core
records from
“An
Inconvenient
Truth”
Why are the
graphs
separated?
CO2 Levels Follow Temp
Changes
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Note on close inspection that CO2 lags behind
temperature, not the reverse
(Also note that CO2 levels have been naturally
varying for eons w/o human fossil fuel
emissions)
Fact #8
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The most abundant greenhouse gas in the
atmosphere, by far,…is water vapor
95% of heat trapped in the troposphere is due
to water vapor
http://www.geyserlandobservatory.org/atmosphere/atmosphere.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/environment/appd_d.html
Fact #9
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Other planets in our solar system are
warming as well
Numerous studies are showing that Mars,
Jupiter, Neptune, and the moon Triton are
all warming
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2006-05-04-jupiter-jr-spot_x.htm?POE=TECISVA
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028764.shtml
http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/19980526052143data_trunc_sys.shtml
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/1998/triton.html
http://motls.blogspot.com/2006/05/global-warming-on-jupiter.html
Martian Icecaps
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The icecaps on Mars are melting
If CO2 is the culprit, why is Mars also
warming?
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html
Martian Warming
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"Mars has global warming,
but without a greenhouse
and without the participation
of Martians.”
– Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov
Director, Space Research
Laboratory
Pulkovo Astronomical
Observatory
Russian Academy of Science
http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=edae9952-3c3e-47ba-913f-7359a5c7f723&k=0
Fact #10
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In the last 4 months, almost all “lost”
polar ice has returned
This fact is reported by the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA)
http://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/global_warming_or_cooling/2008/02/19/73798.html
Growing
Ice Caps
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“The ice between Canada and southwestern
Greenland has reached its highest level in 15
years.”
– Meteorological Institute of Denmark, 2008
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Levels of Antarctic ice are also increased—one third
higher than normal for this time of year
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/lynn-davidson/2008/02/16/western-greenland-ice-growing-still-global-warming
Polar Bear Party
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Despite popular media portrayal, polar bear
numbers are increasing
Canadian government survey: Polar bear
population has increased 250% in last 20 years
The indigenous Inuit people report the same
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1ea8233f-14da-4a44-b839-b71a9e5df868
Fact #11
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When compared with larger-timeframe
historical temperatures, current earth
temperatures are in the normal range
Poor Sample of History?
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“We have made ourselves a very poor
experiment, because instrumental
meteorological observations started
precisely at the lowest temperature
observed in the past 10,000 years.”
– Jørgen Peder Steffensen,
Curator Geophysics,
Niels Bohr Institute
Confirming Data
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C-14 samples from tree rings and peat
bogs confirm this historical
temperature pattern
So do data from stalactite caves in
China and North Africa
Fact #12
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Global Warming Theory arose essentially
overnight, as a political product of the
United Nations, with little or no scientific
scrutiny
Graphic from 1990 report by International Panel on Climate Change
Historical Records and
Accounts
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Medieval Warm Period (ca. 1100-1400
AD)
Little Ice Age (ca. 1600-1800 AD)
Mann’s Hockey Stick, 1998
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Dr. Michael Mann, Adjunct Asst.
Professor, University of Massachusetts
A Memory Hole?
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In Mann’s paper, the Medieval Warm Period
and Little Ice Age became non-events
Selective data is chosen and displayed
alongside speculative statistical data
“An increasing body of observations gives a
collective picture of a warming world and
other changes in the climate system.”
– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), 2001, Lead Author – Michael Mann
The IPCC
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The International Panel on Climate
Change is a body of the United Nations
It is not a scientific body; it is a political
body
Climate Change Authority
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The IPCC is a self-appointed world
authority on climate change
The structure of the IPCC, 1990
– Working Group 1 (Science)
– Working Group 2 (Sociology, Economics)
– Working Group 3 (Public Policy)
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The curious role of scientists in the
IPCC
IPCC on Itself
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“The IPCC work aims at the promotion
of the United Nations goals.”
“When governments accept IPCC
reports, they acknowledge their
legitimacy.”
“The IPCC produces regular reports
which immediately become standard
works of reference.”
http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm
Global Warming in the Media
2006
Fact #13
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Despite strenuous and expensive
propaganda attempts to claim consensus
and the end of debate, Global Warming
theory is becoming less scientifically
accepted each year
2008 International Conference on Climate
Change, New York
– March 2-4, 2008
Non-Believers
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John Coleman, Founder of the Weather
Channel
Dr. Patrick Moore, Founder of Greenpeace
Prof. Richard Lindzen, MIT Meteorology
and climate expert
Dr. Willile Soon, Harvard Physicist
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/comments_about_global_warming/
http://www.basinelectric.com/NewsCenter/News/FeaturedArticles/Greenpeace_founder_d.html
http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/print/26945
http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=16260
Weather Channel Founder
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“It is the greatest scam in
history. I am amazed,
appalled, and highly
offended by it. Global
Warming; it is a scam.”
– John Coleman
MIT Meteorologist
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“(The IPCC) has decided
that they have to
convince other people
that since no scientist
disagrees you shouldn’t
disagree either.
Whenever you hear that
in science, it’s pure
propaganda.”
– Prof. Richard Lindzen
Geodynamics Professor
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“In my position, I can hardly find
anyone who would subscribe to the
IPCC scenario.”
– Prof. Nils-Axel Mörner,
Dept. of Paleogeophysics
and Geodynamics,
Stockholm University
Harvard Astrophysicist
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“The question is why are flawed
models used as a basis for enormously
expensive policy decisions, farreaching policy decisions. They
shouldn’t be.”
– Dr. Sallie Baliunas,
Astrophysics,
Harvard University
World Climate Expert
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“The science we’re being told by the
IPCC is really incorrect science.
Somehow the IPCC has become a
global warming Bible, if you will. You
can’t disagree.”
– Dr. David LeGates
Center for Climatic Research
University of Delaware
Fact #14
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Your observations are valid
Facts surround us
– Deep freeze over US and southern Asia set
records the past few Winters
– Much of citrus crop in California and Florida
was destroyed by ice
– Record lows have been observed world-wide
in the last few years
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/02/brrrr-260-dead-in-south-asia-pakistan.html
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/html/news/April7thwinterwx.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/02/11/minnesota.cold.ap/
Part 3
Where does this leave us?
So it’s wrong…so what?
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Trillions of dollars, and billions of hours of
labor and effort are being squandered
This money and effort could be used for
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Reducing real pollutants
Fighting poverty
Treating AIDS and malaria
Providing adequate drinking water and medical
treatment
Public policy which attempts to correct this
non-existent problem could literally cause
millions of people to die
Social Reaction
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Cognitive dissonance
Stages of reaction:
1. Anger
2. Bigotry
3. Resentment
4. Frustration
5. Re-evaluation
6. Self-education
7. Activism
Concluding Points
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1. Time is the best friend of the truth
2. No cause is served well by misinformation
3. Do not throw out the baby with the
bathwater:
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The environment is important
Climate science is important, useful, and fascinating
Global Warming claims are fraudulent
CO2 is a political tool, not a pollutant
There are many worthy causes. Choose one,
research it, and take it up, and make a real
difference
World Malaria Day, April 25
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Malaria kills more than
1 million innocent lives
each year
A child dies every 30
seconds from malaria
It is preventable and
treatable
http://www.worldvision.org/donate.nsf/child/sg_march08_pharm?Open&campaign=1038070&cmp=EMC-1038070&ppi=30433669
Next Monday’s Talk
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“Global Warming Cracked Open: A
Peek Inside”
7pm, here in this room
Talk will address:
– Who would want us to believe this and
why?
– Who benefits from global warming?
– What are some of the motivations and
tactics used to push this story?
Thank You
Questions?