Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Climate Change: Making Community-Based Decisions in a Carbon Constrained World American Public Power Association Pre-Rally Workshop February 28, 2006 Washington, D.C. The State of Climate Change Policy Glenn Kelly Kelly Public Strategies, LLC for The Alliance for Climate Strategies February 28, 2006 American Public Power Association Alliance for Climate Strategies (ACS) • Aluminum Association • American Chemistry Council • American Forest & Paper Association • American Iron & Steel Institute • American Petroleum Institute • American Public Power Association • American Road & Transportation Builders Association • Edison Electric Institute • Nuclear Energy Institute • National Mining Association • National Rural Electric Cooperative Association ACS Purposes • To exemplify the principle that voluntary actions are an effective means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions intensities • To demonstrate that the ingenuity and technological expertise of American industry can achieve meaningful reductions in greenhouse gas emissions intensity “The North Pole is Melting” • Front Page Story . . . • “The last time scientists can be certain the [north] pole was awash in water was more than 50 million years ago." -- New York Times, (August 19, 2000) The Correction – 8/29/00 • The original article “misstated the normal conditions of the sea ice there. A clear spot has probably opened at the pole before, scientists say, because about 10 percent of the Arctic Ocean is clear of ice in a typical summer.” • Good News: Santa’s Workshop appears safe USS Hawkbill at North Pole, Spring 1999 Preliminary Lessons • Don’t believe everything you read • Make no assumptions of future in climate debate • Get involved if you care and have a stake – everybody else is doing it Sources of Energy-Related CO2 Emissions US CO2 Emissions From Energy - 2003 Residential (69% Elec) 21% Transportation 32% Commercial (77% elec) 18% Industrial (38% Elec) 29% Source: EIA, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2003 CO2 Growth Only 38% of GDP Growth And Industry Emissions Down Annual Average Percent Change 1990 to 2003 3.0% CO2 Emissions from Energy 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Total Real GDP Source: EIA, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2003. GDP data from Bureau of Economic Analysis. Each sector includes allocated electricity generation emissions. Policy Dimensions/Overview • International – Without U.S. – With U.S. • U.S. National • U.S. States • Other “Drivers” – Grassroots/activist investors/media International Situation Without the United States • Kyoto Protocol ratified (Feb 2005) • Binds parties to GHG reductions on 1990 baseline by 2012 • U.S. and Australia only “industrialized” nations to pass • Big issues loom for fate of Kyoto International Situation Without the United States (cont’d) • Kyoto’s future uncertain – Internal posturing among parties • No “Enforcement Mechanism” – No one wants penalties • “2nd Commitment Period” ??? – Anyone’s guess • Targets Expected to be Missed – Only two nations expected to comply European Environmental Agency Targets = Reality? EEA "Existing Measures" Projection for 2010 EU-15 Sweden UK Germany Luxemb France Netherla Italy Greece Belgium Ireland Finland Austria Portugal Spain Denmark -10% Percent Above Target -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% European Environmental Agency, November 30, 2004 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook, 2005 Emissions from developing world surpass industrialized nations by 2010 Demographic Realities Population Growth 25% US Percent Change 20% US 15% 10% W. Europe 5% W. Europe 0% 1990-2002 Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2005. 2002-2025 International Situation Lead by the United States A New Approach? UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) • U.S. is still a party • U.S. ratified this treaty • Goal to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere – No targets – No timetables – No costly mandates New U.S. International Directions • G-8 Gleneagles Communique – Voluntary actions tied to economic growth • Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate – Public-private partnership linked to investments emphasizing “Clean Development” • Post-Kyoto Considerations – Nations realizing goals will not be met Asia-Pacific Partnership (AP6) • U.S., Australia, South Korea, Japan, India & China • Assist each country meet designed strategies for energy security, reducing pollution and climate change • Promote development and deployment of technologies among partner nations – Includes “best practices” • 8 specific areas, including generation and transmission, renewables and clean fossil U.S. National Issues • White House focused on – National 18% intensity reduction by 2012 – AP6 & Climate VISION Implementation (approx. $52 million for AP6) – Technology development/deployment (approx. $3 billion) • Hydrogen Fuel Init., etc. • FutureGen, zero-emission coal generation • Fusion – Climate science research (approx. $2 billion) US Making Strong Progress Reducing Carbon Intensity (CO2/GDP) 1990-2001 Annual Average % Change Germany Includes reunification of Germany United Kingdom UK includes one-time "dash to gas" United States France Netherlands Canada Italy Other W.Europe Australia/NZ Japan -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 0.0% 1.0% Trends in GHG Emissions 2000 - 2003 1. Lithuania 2. Iceland 3. Ireland 4. Czech 5. USA 6. France 7. Poland 8. Ukraine 9. Germany 10. Belgium 11. Japan 12. Netherlands 13. EU-25 14. Switzerland 15. Norway 16. EU-15 17. Monaco 18. Hungary 19. Canada 20. Portugal 21. Australia 22. Italy 23. Greece 24. Slovenia 25. Latvia 26. Sweden 27. Bulgaria 28. Belarus 29. Spain 30. Slovakia 31. New Zealand 32. Denmark 33. Estonia 34. Romania 35. Austria 36. Ukraine 37. Croatia 38. Luxembourg 39. Finland -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Source: 2005 National Inventory Reports and Common Reporting Formats at http://unfccc.int/national_reports/ annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/2761.php Energy Policy Act of 2005 • Signed into Law August 8, 2005 • Includes Incentives for Renewables, Nuclear, Clean Coal and Geothermal • Includes Incentives for Domestic and Int’l Technology Development and Deployment to Address Climate Change • Rejected Mandatory Emissions Caps Energy Bill Tax Incentives U.S. National Issues • National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP) Plan – Targets w/Emissions Trading – “safety valve” or “carbon tax” ? • Domenici/Bingaman “White Paper” – Assumes emissions caps – More questions than answers • McCain/Lieberman – Losing steam, Nuclear is a key factor • Stevens/Vitter – Jurisdiction battles and science • Inhofe/Barton factor • Mid-term elections U.S. National Issues • White House Mouse • Supreme Court Mouse • What happened to the House Mouse? – Too little attention paid to House U.S. National Issues • Balance against EPAct 2005 passage – – – – • • • • Technology Tax incentives International cooperation Renewables Senate “climate fatigue” House “skepticism” Election-year efforts to appeal to voters Other issue “background noise” and low issue priority U.S. States – a Mixed Bag • RGGI – Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative – Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware – 1990 levels by 2014 – 10% below 1990 by 2019 • California Tailpipes & Smokestacks • Washington & Oregon • Mayors Initiative – Mostly short-life capital improvements – Posturing Other “Drivers” • • • • • TV Ad Campaigns Petitions Movies Starring Former Veeps Movies Agenda-based Institutional Investors / Shareholder Activists • Other Campaigners • Politics Present Reality • Climate is “mainstreamed” • Climate does not register as it does in other nations • Climate is serious business with serious consequences • If you care, get involved to get it right . . . . . . or someone else will do it for you. Questions & Answers Supplemental Information Back in the US: McCain/Lieberman Emission Caps Require Large Reductions Million Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide EIA Projections of US GHG Emissions 12,000 10,000 Reference Case 8,000 SA. 2028: 22% Reduction 6,000 S.139: 33% Reduction 4,000 2,000 0 1990 2000 2010 2025 Source: EIA, Analysis of Senate Amendment 2028, the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003 , May 2004 McCain/Lieberman: A Huge New Program Value of Issued Allowances: SO2 Versus McCain/Lieberman Billions of 2001 Dollars $300 $250 S.139 $200 SA.2028 $150 $100 SO2 Program (about $1.5 billion in 2003) $50 $0 2003 2010 2025 Source: Calculated from EIA, Analysis of Senate Amendment 2028, the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003 , May 2004 Climate Change: Making Community-Based Decisions in a Carbon Constrained World American Public Power Association Pre-Rally Workshop February 28, 2006 Washington, D.C.