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Analyzing Societal Responses
to Climate Change with
Particular Reference to Health
Jonathan D. Mayer
University of Washington
Geography, Infectious Diseases,
Epidemiology, Health Services, Family
Medicine
Human-Earth System Interaction
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Highly complex
Involves interactive and recursive loops
Many of the relationships are nonlinear
Just as ecosystem(s) influence humans,
So humans influence ecosystems
Example
• Swidden (slash and burn) agriculture
• Well adapted in when food requirements
not high for large numbers of people
• Highly sustainable
– Allows regeneration of soil nutrients
• Humans influence environment
• Environment influences humans
Adaptation
• Keyword in this context
• Adaptation different than “natural”
adaptation
• Can be the result of intentional action
• Can be the result of tradition
• ?Other factors
• This is “cultural ecology”
Why Do Social Systems Adapt?
• To Reduce Vulnerability
– Individuals
– Groups
– Governments
– Supragovernmental units
• Vulnerability:
– “ability to be harmed or hurt”—Robt. Kates
– Strategies are taken to minimize this
Upstream Responses to Climate
Change
• Adaptive human action viewed as
“mitigation”
• Actions, based on feedback, to change
what is viewed as harmful human action
• Logic:
– Human activities are causing climate change
– Change those human actions
• Directly
• Through incentives
Specific Examples
• Change consumption of fossil fuels;
• Change incentives for use of private
transportation;
• Develop new technologies:
– Industry
– Transportation
• Alter spatial design of cities
– e.g., more “foot friendly”
More Profoundly…..
• Alter political incentives
• In democratic societies, make political
bodies (and politicians) accountable
• Etc…
• All of these are human actions (“societal
responses”) to alter the “anthropogenic” in
“anthropogenic climate change”
Downstream Effects
• (or responses)
• Climate change is there….what are we
going to do?
• Analysis is very similar to that of natural
hazards
• Can analyze individual, group, and
formalized group (governmental)
responses
– Intrapsychic responses as well
Most Profoundly
• Can realize degree to which humans are
responsible for climate change
• Respond accordingly
• But beware “Tragedy of the Commons”
Intrapsychic Responses
• Defenses
• Normalizing the abnormal
• Anxiety
– Common with sudden phenomena
– Less common with phenomena of gradual
onset and progression
• Denial
Individual Responses
• Do nothing
• Buy into the denial of others
• Individual strategies to minimize risk
– Heat waves—buy air conditioners if possible
– Drink water
– Stay cool
• Keep cisterns away from dwellings
• Drain pools of water
Individual Responses (cont)
• Change physical structure of houses
– Heat conservation
– Waterproof
• Insurance
Group Responses
• Form action groups
– e.g., environmental groups
– Political action
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Stregthen social ties (NYC and 9/11)
“Persuade”
Offer forms of insurance to spread risk
Group pressure
Group support
Governmental Adaptations
• Agencies to address consequences of
climate change—there are many!
• Strengthen public health
• Improve mosquito abatement
• Improve drainage
• Implement migration and resettlement in
case of potential flooding
– This has many profound social
consequences—Three Gorges Dam
Public Health Systems As
Adaptations
• Purpose is to reduce vulnerability thru
collective action
– Ability to be harmed by:
• Pathogens
• Toxins
• Underlying causes of widespread threats including:
• Human causes (“anthropogenic”), such as
climate change, cigarette smoke, toxic
waste, etc
Thus, public health serves as
a buffer of the environment
between some of the
malevolent forces, and society
(note that these forces are not
always “natural”)
Political Ecologic Framework
• First used in geography, anthropology to
analyze land degradation
• Political economy + cultural ecology
• Land degradation frequently result of
political decisions as well as cultural
maladaptation
Political Ecology and Disease
• Suggested by me in context of infectious
disease (Mayer 1996) and emerging
infection (Mayer 2000)
• Unintended consequences of political
decisions or political consequences of
private decisions
• Merged with ecological consequences
Climate Change, Disease, and
Political Ecology
• Global warming result of complex private
decisions—many scales
• Probable result: alteration of infectious,
noninfectious disease patterns
• Unintended consequences of decisions
made in:
– Firm
– By consumers
– By land developers (deforestation)
Major Need of Political Ecology
• Grounding abstract analysis with
real, concrete, on the ground
examples!