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The Politics of Climate Change Peter Newell CSGR University of Warwick School of Development Studies University of East Anglia [email protected] The Politics of Climate Change • Science: consensus and uncertainty • Scale of problem: dispersed, local• • • • • global Potential costs involved Equity: North-South Equity: Intergenerational Power of opposition Unprecedented level of cooperation required The Politics of Climate Change • Disputes over responsibility: Burden of • • • action, funding Disputes over institutions: GEF, fines for non-compliance? Disputes over solutions: Role of technology Disputes over solutions: Role of markets Science and knowledge • Consensus always fragile especially • • • when the stakes are high Organised science makes a difference; epistemic communities Have to deflect challenges to their authority, protect their access to policy-makers Other knowledge forms equally key: economics, technology Role of North-South politics • Can lead to stalemate over responsibility for causes and • • • • • burden for taking action Sensitive issue of future contribution of NICs and LDCs: New approaches? Staged commitments, multi-track negotiating processes Requires careful coalition building and innovative issuelinkages to issues of aid, trade, debt Contests over appropriate policy tools: use of aid, export credit screening, which institution to oversee implementation Splits between North-South opens up possibilities for ‘winning coalitions’ Taking equity seriously: Not a technical issue about efficiency and savings. Sensitivities about vulnerability, obligation and justice Justice and Climate Change • Those who bear the worst effects • • • contribute to the problem least Those who contribute most are best placed to adapt Vulnerability cuts across nations: Poverty, gender and class The South as Sink: Solutions which displace problem to the global South Supportive role of private sector • Experts through experience • Command of technologies and production • • • • • • processes for delivering environmental goods Contribution to the economy Potential veto coalition, non compliance Potential drivers of standards within regimes: Exporting environmentalism Private regimes and investment flows often have greater ecological significance than rules set at the global level Leading by example (STEPS) Street level bureaucrats Vocal campaigning by civil society • Support positive and ambitious policy positions; • • • • • strengthen position of sympathetic elements within government Mobilise public support around strong treaties Expose recalcitrants in negotiations; maintain pressure Expose non-compliance at national level Also provide expertise, sit on delegations Magnify voice of weaker and most affected developing countries The Rise of Civil Regulation • Frustration with pace and progress of inter-state • • • • negotiations Direct targeting of key polluters Plays on strengths and weaknesses of business Manifested in range of liberal and critical forms of governance/regulation Linked to corporate accountability movements, anti-globalisation and Climate Justice groups Liberal Civil Regulation • CSC: Labelling and certification • Business case for climate change: • • • • Climate Group, Pew Centre GHG Registry: Pew, WBCSD, WRI, WWF Project specific collaborations Responsible Investor: USS Pension Fund campaign, good corporate governance Working with: Persuasion, (Leggett and insurance industry); UNEP Statement Critical Civil Regulation •Consumer boycotts (Exxon etc) •Company-specific campaigns (Stop Esso) •Shareholder Activism (CERES and ICCR): Threats of Divestment •Targeting banks: JP Morgan Chase: Assessing financial risks in loan evaluations •Direct Action: Rising Tide, Greenpeace (Drax etc) •Resistance to market mechanisms: Voluntarism, Chicago Carbon Exchange, CDM, emissions trading •Broader critique of limits of marketisation Conclusions • Addressing blind-spots in climate governance: • • • • • Beyond the public Policy coherence and integration Building new cross-sectoral coalitions Working at all levels: Local – Global Change at material, institutional and cultural level Personal responsibility plus broader political change