Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Rebalancing Asia: Implications for inclusive green growth Dr Alex Bowen Principal Research Fellow, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science Overseas Development Institute, London, 13 March 2013 1 ‘Going green’ as a development strategy for Asia • The application of sustainable development principles? – ‘Green’ to the fore because of the increase in the perceived threat of environmental degradation, especially by climate change – Growth to the fore because of the experience of recent decades, especially in Asia – The three pillars still relevant • Environmental • Economic • Social 2 Innovation • Market failures – – – – Spill-overs from knowledge Need to differentiate the ‘price’ of new ideas Difficult to capture returns Danger of introducing monopoly power • Changing sources of growth – In the past, capital accumulation and the reallocation of workers from less to more productive sectors – But populations age, saving rates decline and the movement of people out of rural agriculture into urban industry and services slows over time – Increasing importance of knowledge-based growth, including growth based on new skills 3 Innovation Source: Batelle/ R&D Magazine 4 Innovation 5 Source: OECD Innovation 6 Innovation • Policy implications – Strengthen national innovation systems • Examples from Japan, Korea, China and Singapore – For most countries in Asia, focus R,D, and D on • Adapting innovations from leading innovators • Exploiting comparative advantages • Delivering innovations appropriate to the structure and resources of the economy – Environmental pricing – Take into account the problem of overcoming previous path dependence – Use UNFCCC negotiations 7 Green jobs • Another area where market failures abound – Labour market frictions – Acquisition of (general) skills – Macroeconomic shocks – Segmented labour markets e.g. rural/urban, formal/informal – Poor information and inadequate opportunities to reduce risks 8 Need for additional jobs Change in working population (15-64) from 2010 to 2025 as a % change of 2010 population (medium variant scenario) 30% 25% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Japan Korea Hong Kong China Singapore Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India Malaysia Phillipines -10% Saudi Arabia % of 2010 population 20% 9 Green jobs • ‘Green jobs’ difficult to define • Much scope for gross job creation in the transition to green growth • But policy-makers seeking co-benefits should focus on net job creation • Studies for high-income countries not necessarily a good guide for developing countries 10 Not all measures equally ‘jobs-friendly’ The Korean stimulus 11 India: jobs in wind energy 12 Source: TERI (2010) Erosion of natural capital Energy depletion Mineral depletion Net forest depletion CO2 damage Particulate emissions damage Total East Asia/ Pacific 3.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 0.7 5.3 South Asia 2.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.5 5.3 World 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 2.9 13 Source: World Bank Little Green Data Book 2011 Damages from particulate pollution Particulate Emission Demage 2010 (GNI per Capita) Particulate Emission Demange (%GNI) 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 GNI per Capita ($ thousand) 55 60 65 70 75 80 • ADB Members • World Source: World Bank (2010) "The Little Green Data Book" 85 90 95 14 Costs of adjustment in labour markets 15 Source: Babiker and Eckaus (2007): ‘Unemployment effects of climate policy’ Preparedness of Asian countries 16 Source: ABC Green jobs • Policy implications – Active labour market policies – Facilitating investment in skills – Tailoring public employment programmes – Taking account of the state of the macro-economy – Understanding the structure of labour markets – Look beyond formal urban jobs – Focus more on net than gross job formation 17 Rebalancing Asia: Implications for inclusive green growth Thank you for your attention! Dr Alex Bowen [email protected] 18