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Bulgarian Academy of Sciences NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY Role and Involvement of Bulgarian Meteorologists in the Implementation of the UNCCD at National Level (focusing on art. 16-17 of UNCCD) Vesselin Alexandrov Poiana Brashov, 2004 Scientific and Technical Cooperation Article 16: Information collection, analysis and exchange collection, analysis and exchange of relevant short term and long term data and information to understand better and assess the processes and effects of drought – to help early warning and advance planning for periods of adverse climatic variations Information collection, analysis & exchange systematic weather observations and data collection stations in northwestern Bulgaria Hydrological stations Rain-gauge stations Synoptic stations Climatic stations Information collection, analysis & exchange systematic weather observations and data collection use WMO compatible standards and systems encompass relevant weather data and stations (but … a decreasing trend in stations & some other problems - data quality) use and disseminate modern technology for weather data collection & transmission (new automated stations … but problems with some instruments, e.g. Tmin) Information collection, analysis & exchange weather/drought analysis daily weather conditions and forecasts (in media – TV, radio, newspapers, web, etc.) weekly and monthly conditions and forecasts (in media – TV, radio, newspapers, web, etc.) e.g. monthly weather bulletin (www.meteo.bg) annual and climate analysis (in media as well as research and public-related papers) Information collection, analysis & exchange data and information exchange link/provide national weather data to national and global information sources/organizations such as: - WMO – World Meteorological Organization - Ministry of Environment and Water; Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, National Statistical Institute - etc. (some restrictions and … charges are applied) Information collection, analysis & exchange trying to ensure that the collection, analysis and exchange of information address the needs of local communities and those of decision makers, with a view to resolving specific drought problems Meteorological Expert Council at the Ministerial Permanent Commission for Defense of Population in case of Disasters and Accidents expert assessments on drought for the Parliament (e.g. in 2000), etc. Scientific and Technical Cooperation Article 17: Research and development contribute to increased knowledge of the processes leading to drought and the impact of factors, both natural and human, with a view to mitigating the effects of drought, and achieving improved (e.g. agricultural) productivity as well as sustainable use and management of resources Research and development national and international projects (and many project proposals) on assessing drought and its related impacts on various sectors (such as agriculture, forestry, water resources, human health, etc.) Drought in Bulgaria Drought in Bulgaria: A Contemporary Analog of Climate Change Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Elements of the Hydrological Cycle in SE Europe Adaptation of Efficient Water Criteria in Marginal Regions of Europe under Climate Change A book on drought (2003): “Drought in Bulgaria: A Contemporary Analog of Climate Change. Natural, economic and social dimension of the 1982-1994 drought” Research and development dissemination of research results on drought as well as related impacts and adaptation/mitigation measures publications in scientific journals research conferences, congresses media (TV, radio, newspapers) seminars (e.g. at the Educational Center in the BG weather service) Precipitation anomalies (%) 45 30 15 0 -15 -30 1945 2000 -45 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Anomalies of annual precipitation in Bulgaria, relative to 1961-1990 80 59 71 70 80 81 62 63 55 59 53 58 70 50 49 58 74 > 800 m.a.s.l. Annual precipitation (in % of the normal (1961-1990)) in Bulgaria, 2000 Annual precipitation trends (1901-2000) by applying the coefficient of Spearman at probability level of 95%; red arrows - insignificant increasing trend blue arrows - insignificant decreasing trend Precipitation anomalies (%) 60 40 20 0 -20 93 -40 85 88 00 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Anomalies of precipitation during the warm-half of the year (April-September), relative to 1961-1990 Zimnica 8000 NO irrigated 2000 drought hail 4000 drought drought drought 6000 hail Maize grain yield (kg/ha) 10000 0 Maize grain yield (kg/ha) 1970 1975 16000 1980 1985 1990 Gorski Izvor 12000 8000 irrigated 4000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 yield 200 precipitation 10000 150 8000 100 6000 4000 50 2000 0 0 1970 1975 1980 Year 1985 1990 Fluctuations of maize grain yield and precipitation in July and August, averaged for non-irrigated stations in Bulgaria Precipitation (mm) Maize grain yield (kg/ha) 12000 Winter precipitation trends (1901-2000) brown arrows - statistically significant increasing trend red arrows - insignificant increasing trend blue arrows - insignificant decreasing trend Danube plan 60 drouth index 50 40 30 20 10 0 I III V VII IX XI month 1961-1990 1982-1994 Thracian lowland drouth index De Martonne index for Danube Plain and Thracian Lowland (Koleva et al., 2004) 50 40 30 20 10 0 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X month 1961-1990 1982-1994 XI XII 10 a) 6 4 2 0 1960 1965 1970 8 b) 1975 1980 1985 Year 15 days 1990 1995 1985 1990 2000 10 days trend 6 Number Number 8 4 2 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year 1995 2000 Dry spells (10 and 15 days) during the potential crop growing season (>10C) in Sadovo (a) and Kjustendil (b) 1942-1953 1902-1913 50 80 40 % % 60 40 30 20 20 10 0 0 extr.dry dry normal extr.dry wet dry normal wet 1954-1970 60 40 % Classification (in %) of the years (1902-1994) – extr. dry, dry, normal, wet in North Bulgaria 20 0 extr.dry normal wet 1982-1994 1971-1980 50 50 40 40 30 30 % % dry 20 20 10 10 0 0 extr.dry dry normal wet extr.dry dry normal wet Runoff anomalies () 2.0 anomalies (North) Run. av. (North) Run. av. (East) Run. av. (South) 1.0 0.0 -1.0 =(Xi-Xave)/X -2.0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Anomalies of annual river runoff in Bulgaria, relative to 1961-1990 (e.g. Alexandrov and Genev, 2003) annual runoff - 20 000 million m3 2200 artificial lakes (1980s) - 7 000 million m3 from 1952 to 1985 - from 150 to 1700 million m3 in 1986, Sofia and surroundings - 260 million m3 Results of the Mann's test in some streams of southeastern Bulgaria (Lizama and Koleva-Lizama, 2000) n or m - 4 2 3 n or m - D an u be sd + sd - D a n u b e b a si n a n d w e l l 4 2 3 2 .0 1 .5 Danube basin runoff & well 423 d e v ia t io n s 1 .0 0 .5 0 .0 - 0 .5 - 1 .0 - 1 .5 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 - 2 .5 1960 - 2 .0 year s norm-Mediter. norm-59 sdsd+ M editerranean basin and spring 59 2.5 2.0 1.5 deviations (e.g. Alexandrov and Genev, 2002) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 years 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 -2.0 Mediterranean basin runoff & spring 59 1960 -1.5 a) 2 40 0 b) 20 -2 (%) N (number) 4 -4 1960 1970 1980 1990 0 -20 2000 Year -40 1960 1970 1980 1990 Year Anomalies of maize-growing seasonal number of irrigation applications (a), and irrigation totals (b) 2000 Anomalies of annual air temperature and precipitation over the Balkan Peninsula, relative to 1961-1990. Precipitation (in mm) in July (left) and August (right), 2000 over the region of the Balkan Peninsula Positive (left) and negative (right) NAO phases and related influence on weather in Europe NAO index, December-March, 1864-2002 Relation between winter precip and NAO i., 1949-2000 (MAGICC/SCENGEN) ECHAM4 GCM scenario of annual air temperature in Europe during the 2050s (A2 SRES emission scenario), relative to 1961-1990 ECHAM4 GCM scenario of annual precipitation in Europe during the 2050s (A2 SRES emission scenario), relative to 1961-1990 Climate Change Scenarios for Bulgaria 20 0 -20 b) 40 -40 -60 -80 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Temperature (оС) IPCC A2 emission scenario Precipitation (%) Precipitation (%) a) 40 10 CGCM2 CSIRO-Mk2b CSM-1.3 20 0 ECHAM4 GFDL-R15b MRI2 CCSR DOE-PCM HadCM3 -20 -40 -60 -80 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Temperature (оС) 10 GCM simulated change change of air temperature (X) and precipitation (Y) for winter (a) and summer (b) in Bulgaria for the 2100, relative to 1961-1990 5.0 e) 10 3.0 0 2.0 -10 P (%) T (oC) 4.0 1.0 f) -20 -30 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Month 8 9 10 11 12 -40 -50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month HaDCM2 and ECHAM4 climate change scenarios of monthly air temperature (left) and precipitation (right) in Sandanski (south Bulgaria) during the 2100s (А2 emission scenario) Maize yield (kg/ha) 9000 BASE CGCM1 ECHAM4 CSIRO-Mk2b HadCM2 GFDL-R15 8000 7000 6000 5000 2020s 2050s Maize yield for current climate and GCM scenarios + direct CO2 effect 2080s Ele- Model 0 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 ment 1961- Trend Trend Drought 1990 2050 2100 1982-1994 T1 T2 D T1+D T2+D Temp 8.3oC 0.5oC 0.7oC 0.2 oC 0.5oC 0.7oC Precip 600 mm -4% -6% -12% -15% -17% -14% -20% -31% -39% -45% Runoff 20x109 m3 Scenarios for the future development of the hydroprocesses in Bulgaria (e.g. Alexandrov and Genev, 2002) Climate Change Scenarios for the Balkan Peninsula 20 0 -20 b) 40 -40 -60 -80 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Temperature (оС) IPCC A2 emission scenario Precipitation (%) Precipitation (%) a) 40 10 CGCM2 CSIRO-Mk2b CSM-1.3 20 0 ECHAM4 GFDL-R15b MRI2 CCSR DOE-PCM HadCM3 -20 -40 -60 -80 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Temperature (оС) 10 GCM simulated change of air temperature (X) and precipitation (Y) for summer in Serbia (a) and Romania (b) for the 2100, relative to 1961-1990 Climate Change Scenarios for the Balkan Peninsula 20 0 -20 d) 40 -40 20 -60 -80 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Temperature (оС) 10 Precipitation (%) Precipitation (%) c) 40 0 -20 -40 -60 IPCC A2 -80 emission -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 scenario Temperature (оС) GCM simulated change of air temperature (X) and precipitation (Y) for summer in Greece (c) and Turkey (d) for the 2100, relative to 1961-1990 CONCLUSIONS In the region of the Balkan Peninsula: from the beginning of the 1980s a tendency to slight warming is observed again this trend is expected to continue in the 21st century precipitation deficit is observed during the last two decades winter precipitation is expected to increase till the end of the 21st century precipitation during the warm-half year (summer) is projected to decrease CONCLUSIONS Strategies were recommended (in 2001) by the Bulgarian Government: saving water resources overcoming water-supply crisis securing water for irrigation and efficiency formation of knowledge and sense to water resources saving