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Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
NATIONAL INSTITUTE
OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
Role and Involvement of
Bulgarian Meteorologists in
the Implementation of the
UNCCD at National Level
(focusing on art. 16-17 of UNCCD)
Vesselin Alexandrov
Poiana Brashov, 2004
Scientific and Technical Cooperation
 Article 16: Information collection,
analysis and exchange
 collection, analysis and exchange of
relevant short term and long term data
and information to understand better and
assess the processes and effects of drought
– to help early warning and advance
planning for periods of adverse
climatic variations
Information collection, analysis & exchange
 systematic weather observations and
data collection
stations
in northwestern
Bulgaria
Hydrological stations
Rain-gauge stations
Synoptic stations
Climatic stations
Information collection, analysis & exchange
 systematic weather observations and
data collection
 use WMO compatible standards
and systems
 encompass relevant weather data
and stations (but … a decreasing trend in
stations & some other problems - data quality)
 use and disseminate modern
technology for weather data collection &
transmission (new automated stations … but
problems with some instruments, e.g. Tmin)
Information collection, analysis & exchange
 weather/drought analysis
 daily weather conditions and
forecasts (in media – TV, radio, newspapers,
web, etc.)
 weekly and monthly conditions and
forecasts (in media – TV, radio, newspapers,
web, etc.) e.g. monthly weather bulletin
(www.meteo.bg)
 annual and climate analysis (in
media as well as research and public-related
papers)
Information collection, analysis & exchange
 data and information exchange
 link/provide national weather data
to national and global information
sources/organizations such as:
- WMO – World Meteorological
Organization
- Ministry of Environment and
Water; Ministry of Agriculture and
Forestry, National Statistical Institute
- etc. (some restrictions and … charges
are applied)
Information collection, analysis & exchange
 trying to ensure that the collection,
analysis and exchange of information
address the needs of local communities
and those of decision makers, with a view
to resolving specific drought problems
 Meteorological Expert Council at
the Ministerial Permanent Commission
for Defense of Population in case of
Disasters and Accidents
 expert assessments on drought for
the Parliament (e.g. in 2000), etc.
Scientific and Technical Cooperation
 Article 17: Research and development
 contribute to increased knowledge
of the processes leading to drought and
the impact of factors, both natural and
human, with a view to mitigating the
effects of drought, and achieving
improved (e.g. agricultural) productivity
as well as sustainable use and
management of resources
Research and development
 national and international projects
(and many project proposals) on assessing
drought and its related impacts on various
sectors (such as agriculture, forestry, water
resources, human health, etc.)
 Drought in Bulgaria
 Drought in Bulgaria: A Contemporary Analog
of Climate Change
 Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the
Elements of the Hydrological Cycle in SE Europe
 Adaptation of Efficient Water Criteria in
Marginal Regions of Europe under Climate Change
A book on drought
(2003):
“Drought in
Bulgaria: A
Contemporary
Analog of Climate
Change. Natural,
economic and
social dimension
of the 1982-1994
drought”
Research and development
 dissemination of research results
on
drought as well as related impacts and
adaptation/mitigation measures
 publications in scientific journals
 research conferences, congresses
 media (TV, radio, newspapers)
 seminars (e.g. at the Educational
Center in the BG weather service)
Precipitation anomalies (%)
45
30
15
0
-15
-30
1945
2000
-45
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Anomalies of annual precipitation in Bulgaria,
relative to 1961-1990
80
59
71
70
80
81
62
63
55
59
53
58
70
50
49
58
74
> 800 m.a.s.l.
Annual precipitation (in % of the normal (1961-1990))
in Bulgaria, 2000
Annual precipitation trends (1901-2000) by applying the
coefficient of Spearman at probability level of 95%;
red arrows - insignificant increasing trend
blue arrows - insignificant decreasing trend
Precipitation anomalies (%)
60
40
20
0
-20
93
-40
85 88
00
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Anomalies of precipitation during the warm-half of the
year (April-September), relative to 1961-1990
Zimnica
8000
NO irrigated
2000
drought
hail
4000
drought
drought
drought
6000
hail
Maize grain yield (kg/ha)
10000
0
Maize grain yield (kg/ha)
1970
1975
16000
1980
1985
1990
Gorski Izvor
12000
8000
irrigated
4000
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
yield
200
precipitation
10000
150
8000
100
6000
4000
50
2000
0
0
1970
1975
1980
Year
1985
1990
Fluctuations of maize grain yield and precipitation in
July and August, averaged for non-irrigated stations
in Bulgaria
Precipitation (mm)
Maize grain yield (kg/ha)
12000
Winter precipitation trends (1901-2000)
brown arrows - statistically significant increasing trend
red arrows - insignificant increasing trend
blue arrows - insignificant decreasing trend
Danube plan
60
drouth index
50
40
30
20
10
0
I
III
V
VII
IX
XI
month
1961-1990
1982-1994
Thracian lowland
drouth index
De Martonne index
for Danube Plain
and Thracian
Lowland (Koleva et
al., 2004)
50
40
30
20
10
0
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII VIII IX
X
month
1961-1990
1982-1994
XI
XII
10
a)
6
4
2
0
1960
1965
1970
8 b)
1975
1980
1985
Year 15 days
1990
1995
1985
1990
2000
10 days
trend
6
Number
Number
8
4
2
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
Year
1995
2000
Dry spells (10 and 15 days) during the potential crop
growing season (>10C) in Sadovo (a) and Kjustendil (b)
1942-1953
1902-1913
50
80
40
%
%
60
40
30
20
20
10
0
0
extr.dry
dry
normal
extr.dry
wet
dry
normal
wet
1954-1970
60
40
%
Classification (in %) of
the years (1902-1994) –
extr. dry, dry, normal, wet
in North Bulgaria
20
0
extr.dry
normal
wet
1982-1994
1971-1980
50
50
40
40
30
30
%
%
dry
20
20
10
10
0
0
extr.dry
dry
normal
wet
extr.dry
dry
normal
wet
Runoff anomalies ()
2.0
anomalies (North)
Run. av. (North)
Run. av. (East)
Run. av. (South)
1.0
0.0
-1.0
=(Xi-Xave)/X
-2.0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Anomalies of annual river runoff in Bulgaria,
relative to 1961-1990 (e.g. Alexandrov and Genev, 2003)
annual runoff - 20 000 million m3
2200 artificial lakes (1980s) - 7 000 million m3
from 1952 to 1985 - from 150 to 1700 million m3
in 1986, Sofia and surroundings - 260 million m3
Results of the Mann's test in some streams of
southeastern Bulgaria (Lizama and Koleva-Lizama, 2000)
n or m - 4 2 3
n or m - D an u be
sd +
sd -
D a n u b e b a si n a n d w e l l 4 2 3
2 .0
1 .5
Danube basin
runoff & well 423
d e v ia t io n s
1 .0
0 .5
0 .0
- 0 .5
- 1 .0
- 1 .5
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
- 2 .5
1960
- 2 .0
year s
norm-Mediter.
norm-59
sdsd+
M editerranean basin and spring 59
2.5
2.0
1.5
deviations
(e.g. Alexandrov and
Genev, 2002)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
years
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
-2.0
Mediterranean basin
runoff & spring 59
1960
-1.5
a)
2
40
0
b)
20
-2
 (%)
N (number)
4
-4
1960
1970
1980
1990
0
-20
2000
Year
-40
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
Anomalies of maize-growing seasonal number of
irrigation applications (a), and irrigation totals (b)
2000
Anomalies of annual air temperature and precipitation
over the Balkan Peninsula, relative to 1961-1990.
Precipitation (in mm) in July (left) and August
(right), 2000 over the region of the Balkan
Peninsula
Positive (left) and negative (right) NAO phases and
related influence on weather in Europe
NAO index,
December-March, 1864-2002
Relation between winter precip and NAO i., 1949-2000
(MAGICC/SCENGEN) ECHAM4 GCM scenario of
annual air temperature in Europe during the 2050s
(A2 SRES emission scenario),
relative to 1961-1990
ECHAM4 GCM scenario of annual
precipitation in Europe during the 2050s
(A2 SRES emission scenario),
relative to 1961-1990
Climate Change
Scenarios for
Bulgaria
20
0
-20
b) 40
-40
-60
-80
-2
0 2 4 6 8
Temperature (оС)
IPCC A2
emission
scenario
Precipitation (%)
Precipitation (%)
a) 40
10
CGCM2
CSIRO-Mk2b
CSM-1.3
20
0
ECHAM4
GFDL-R15b
MRI2
CCSR
DOE-PCM
HadCM3
-20
-40
-60
-80
-2
0 2 4 6 8
Temperature (оС)
10
GCM simulated change change of air temperature (X)
and precipitation (Y) for winter (a) and summer (b) in
Bulgaria for the 2100, relative to 1961-1990
5.0
e)
10
3.0
0
2.0
-10
P (%)
T (oC)
4.0
1.0
f)
-20
-30
0.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month
8
9 10 11 12
-40
-50
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
Month
HaDCM2 and ECHAM4 climate change scenarios of
monthly air temperature (left) and precipitation
(right) in Sandanski (south Bulgaria) during the 2100s
(А2 emission scenario)
Maize yield (kg/ha)
9000
BASE
CGCM1
ECHAM4
CSIRO-Mk2b
HadCM2
GFDL-R15
8000
7000
6000
5000
2020s
2050s
Maize yield for current climate
and GCM scenarios + direct CO2 effect
2080s
Ele-
Model 0
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Model 4
Model 5
ment
1961-
Trend
Trend
Drought
1990
2050
2100
1982-1994
T1
T2
D
T1+D
T2+D
Temp
8.3oC
0.5oC
0.7oC
0.2 oC
0.5oC
0.7oC
Precip
600 mm
-4%
-6%
-12%
-15%
-17%
-14%
-20%
-31%
-39%
-45%
Runoff 20x109 m3
Scenarios for the future development of the hydroprocesses in Bulgaria (e.g. Alexandrov and Genev, 2002)
Climate Change
Scenarios for the
Balkan Peninsula
20
0
-20
b) 40
-40
-60
-80
-2
0 2 4 6 8
Temperature (оС)
IPCC A2
emission
scenario
Precipitation (%)
Precipitation (%)
a) 40
10
CGCM2
CSIRO-Mk2b
CSM-1.3
20
0
ECHAM4
GFDL-R15b
MRI2
CCSR
DOE-PCM
HadCM3
-20
-40
-60
-80
-2
0 2 4 6 8
Temperature (оС)
10
GCM simulated change of air temperature (X) and
precipitation (Y) for summer in Serbia (a) and Romania
(b) for the 2100, relative to 1961-1990
Climate Change
Scenarios for the
Balkan Peninsula
20
0
-20
d) 40
-40
20
-60
-80
-2
0 2 4 6 8
Temperature (оС)
10
Precipitation (%)
Precipitation (%)
c) 40
0
-20
-40
-60
IPCC A2
-80
emission
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
scenario
Temperature (оС)
GCM simulated change of air temperature (X) and
precipitation (Y) for summer in Greece (c)
and Turkey (d) for the 2100, relative to 1961-1990
CONCLUSIONS
 In the region of the Balkan Peninsula:
 from the beginning of the 1980s a tendency
to slight warming is observed again
 this trend is expected to continue in
the 21st century
 precipitation deficit is observed during the
last two decades
 winter precipitation is expected to
increase till the end of the 21st century
 precipitation during the warm-half
year (summer) is projected to decrease
CONCLUSIONS
 Strategies were recommended (in
2001) by the Bulgarian Government:
 saving water resources
 overcoming water-supply crisis
 securing water for irrigation and
efficiency
 formation of knowledge and sense
to water resources saving