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Future trends for governance: some correlates, additions and complications Dr FM Orkin Oslo Governance Forum, Session 3D Voksenasen, 3-5 October 2011 A start: two precepts, jointly true... • What are the lying bastards trying to sell us next? A start: two precepts, jointly true... • What are the lying bastards trying to sell us next? • What do those noisy amateurs want now? ...and less cynically expressed • What are the lying bastards trying to sell us next? • What do those noisy amateurs want now • Holding government accountable is not only better for citizens, but makes government more moral and efficient • Civil society will be more effective for developing the capacities and constituencies to engage government, not merely monitor or criticize it Sarah’s slate of governance trends... Global Global financial volatility Media Regional configurations Urbanisation Migration Arab spring Inequality Youth Local Socio-Cultural Transnational crime Climate change Economic Powerful South Slate of governance trends related... Marketised globalisation Powerful South Transnational crime Media Regional configurations Urbanisation Migration Arab spring Inequality Youth Local Socio-Cultural Economic Global financial volatility Climate change Global ... and some correlates Global Powerful South Transnational crime Regional configurations Food and water Media Urbanisation Migration Xenophobia Inequality Poverty Indigenous people Local Arab spring Youth Socio-Cultural Economic Global financial volatility Climate change Popular unrest ... plus some additions for consideration Global Powerful South Transnational crime Regional configurations Food and water Media Urbanisation Migration Xenophobia Inequality Poverty Indigenous people Arab spring Youth HIV & AIDS Exploitation of women Local Socio-Cultural Economic Global financial volatility Climate change Popular unrest ... and some serious complications Global Powerful South Transnational crime Regional configurations Macro/micro Corruption Food and water Public sector Urbanisation (in)-capacity Arab Migration Inequality spring Xenophobia Poverty Indigenous people Media Youth HIV & AIDS Exploitation of women Local Socio-Cultural Economic Global financial volatility Climate change Popular unrest Some reminders when tackling the issues 1. Many of the issues affect governance in the North as well as South 2. Appropriate mode of engagement for governance context? Autocratic → Pre-democratic → Transitional → Democratic Confront ational → Critical → Cautionary → Constructive 3. Reality check re civil society: flexible, ethical, committed; but also programme-level, uneven quality, un-elected, maybe ephemeral 4. Importance of not bypassing fragile states 5. Advantages of appropriate “mainstreaming” via engagement near or with government: scale, resources, sustainability, legitimacy 6. “Informal” institutions? Maybe need to be reckoned on for interim implementation; but often patrimonial, unfair, unaccountable 7. Participatory implementation is desirable; also non-linear, timeconsuming, intricate, contested, and has unintended consequences
