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LOCAL SCALE SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS FOR
CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT
IN NORTHERN NIGERIA
A. Nyong, A. Berthé, D. Dabi
AF:92
Introduction

Climate variability and change occur in a social and
economic context that contributes to determining
impacts, socioeconomic conditions may mediate or alter
these impacts.

It is therefore necessary to describe these socioeconomic conditions in order to assess these impacts.

The central place of socioeconomic conditions in
assessing impacts and adaptations requires that they be
considered and generally projected into the future.

Future developments are shaped by deep-seated drivers
of economic and social change, by new trends and
innovations, and by larger-scale and unexpected
‘sideswipes’ with a major impact.
What is a Scenario?

A coherent, internally
consistent, and plausible
description of a possible
future state of the world
(IPCC, 1994).

Does not aim to predict,
but are designed to give
representations of
possible futures.

Generally have a
qualitative ‘storyline’
element associated with
quantitative indicators.
Why Are We Doing This?

Several attempts have been made at developing socioeconomic scenarios covering longer timescales and at
large and regional scales.

Socio-economic impacts are usually location-specific.
Most scenarios cover large-spatial and longer-time
scales and rely on large scale aggregation that tends to
mask climate extremes and variations that are crucially
important in assessing vulnerability and adaptation in
specific locations and sectors.

Necessary to develop local scale socioeconomic
scenarios, particularly in developing countries, that
characterize socioeconomic conditions and prospects in
the near term and at local scales, where these variations
are more important than average trends.
Study Area
Research Focus:
Assessment of the Impacts of Droughts on the Livelihoods of
Poor Rural Households in the West African Sahel
Drivers of Socio-economic Development
and Household Livelihood Systems in
Northern Nigeria.

identified four main dimensions of change:




human demography,
the nature of governance and policy,
social and cultural values, and
the composition and rate of economic growth.
Human Demography

Three important demographic features population growth, rural-rural migration and
urbanization.



High birth rates greatly influenced by cultural and social
factors and traditional patterns of thought and behavior.
A very youthful population structure, more than 45 percent
of the population is under the age of 15.
The prospect of continuing high population growth rates will
seriously hinder socioeconomic development prospects
and threaten food security.
Human Demography 2

Sustained rural-rural migration puts undue pressure
on land resources largely resulting in communal
conflicts between pastoralists and sedentary
farmers, further weakening the economy of the
already impoverished rural areas.

Rapid and unplanned urbanization contributes to
reinforce the likelihood of prospective negative
effects of population growth on development.
Social and Cultural Values

Common property with a strong community
cohesion and solidarity.

‘Modernization’ and ‘Development’ have
disrupted the functioning of these traditional
societies.

No incentives for food production for local
markets as the ‘market economy’ now drives
cultivation of export crops.
Governance and Policy

Centralized system of governance with central control over all
local activities for reasons that seem sound—weak local
capacity, fear of local corruption, communal and ethnic
insurrection etc. However, this system of governance has
resulted in severe fiscal and political crises.

Decentralized Governance that seeks to empower the people
as a part of the effort at democratizing state institutions and
initiate/support local self-governing structures.



The vertical transfer of responsibilities and resources from central to
local governments,
The development of horizontal networks between local governments and
local non-state actors: the private sector, civil society, and international
organizations.
synergies between these institutions lead to innovations and higher
levels of productivity as disconnected structures are networked into a
common framework at the local level.
Economic Development

Economic growth in rural northern Nigeria revolves
around small scale agriculture.

Its slow development and hence, food production caused
by both climatic and non-climatic factors: climatic
variation, poor soil quality, poor economic, political, and
social conditions are responsible.

Small-scale farmers have almost no access to training
and agricultural extension services that would address
their problems.

Little chances of acquiring much-needed credits for
purchasing inputs to increase production, such as
chemical fertilizer, seed, and agricultural implements.
Economic Development 2

Improved seed varieties, fertilizers, and plant protection products
are part of a "technological package" used almost exclusively for
export crops such as cotton and maize.

Export production, introduced in colonial times, continues to have
a much higher priority than cultivation of food crops for home
consumption.

No incentive for farmers to increase production because the
chances of selling their produce on the market are poor.

Resources for providing extension services, fertilizer, and
mechanization are rarely allocated to farmers who grow food
crops.
Scenario Framework

Review of Existing Socio-Economic Scenarios

Two-scenario framework of high and low, and are usually
seen as being overly narrow.

Three-scenario framework which includes a baseline and
two storylines with and without adaptation policy
interventions. Often criticized because they often lead to
the identification of one ‘best guess’.

A framework that is defined by the four quadrants of a twodimensional matrix (IPCC SRES). Main advantage is that
the approach supports a degree of analytical rigor while not
reducing the transparency of the process for broad groups
of participants. It also presents a compromise regarding the
number of different scenarios that should be used.
Scenario Framework

We defined our framework conditions by using two broad
dimensions, using social and cultural systems and, institution
and governance to be foundational determinants of future
change.

Obvious that demographic processes are greatly influenced
by cultural and social factors and traditional patterns of
thought and behavior. Economic development and growth are
hinged upon political reforms and systems of governance.

Institutional effectiveness and social values are key
determinants of the effectiveness of coping strategies for
adapting to climate change. They determine adaptive capacity
and hence the vulnerability of socioeconomic systems. They
are critical in any assessment of the implications of climate
change for development, equity, and sustainability.
Framework Scenario 3


The horizontal values
dimension captures alternative
developments in core social
and economic values as they
might be represented in
choices by the local
population.
The vertical governance
dimension aims to show
alternative structures of
political and economic power
and decision-making. The
future of governance at the
national and regional levels will
be influenced to a great extent
by the degree of
decentralization of power.
CENTRALIZATION
Institution and
Governance
National
Enterpris
e
Local
Stewardshi
p
INDIVIDUALISM
COMMON PROPERTY
Culture and value
systems
Regiona
l
Markets
Regional
Sustainability
DECENTRALIZATION
Storylines

The National Enterprise

The capacity to adapt to climate change in the agricultural sector is
constrained by poor economic conditions in the sector and low levels of
investment.

Little concern about social equity or protection of the environment. Land
degradation increases as people no longer pay attention to long term
carrying capacity of the land. This, with unsustainable use of chemical
fertilizers, leads to reduction in food production and hence threaten food
security. These will seriously threaten the livelihood system of the majority of
the population.

Population numbers remain high with large household sizes. Agriculture is no
longer lucrative and agricultural labour force declines. There is increased
migration of the working population to the cities in search of non-farm
employment.

Prevailing social and political values are such that people concentrate on
meeting their own needs through private consumption.

Greater income disparities. Those who can afford it increasingly make use of
private education as the quality of state education declines.
Storylines 2

Local Stewardship

Under this scenario, economic development and resource use is controlled
so that fragile ecosystems are protected through communal efforts.

However, there is some threat from the expansion of agriculture into more
marginal lands. Extensive agriculture focuses on small-scale, diversified and
organic production providing an alternative route to high adaptive capacity in
the agricultural sector.

Economic growth is not an absolute political priority. Instead, there is a
strong emphasis on equity, social inclusion and democratic values.

The conservation of resources and the protection of the natural environment
are strong political objectives. The promotion of these social values
becomes the most important task of public institutions which successfully
turn community values into practice through purposeful social and economic
planning.

Decision-making power is devolved downwards in a more federal system of
government. Political systems are transparent, participatory and democratic
at the local level.

Population growth continues at a slower rate and the trend towards larger
households is reversed and the rate of urbanization is reduced.
Storylines 3

Regional Markets

Adaptive capacity in the agriculture sector is high because technology offers the
opportunity to introduce new varieties and techniques in response to climatic changes.

Due to modernization, people are primarily concerned with personal consumption and
their material well-being. The market, as opposed to state institutions, is presumed to
best deliver these goals. There is a strong desire for mobility. People are less tied to
locality and are more concerned with creating personal objectives and identities.

There is a declining role for governments in the provision of healthcare, education and
other public services. Private sector provision becomes the norm. Privatization leads to
increasing inequalities in access and quality of social services, creating significant new
social tensions. Access to high quality education becomes very uneven, with the
wealthier enjoying high standards and the quality of public education declining.

It does not promote interest in local culture, social equity or environmental issues. This
scenario is characterized by liberalized regional national and international markets, the
dismantling of trade barriers and the retreat of the state, leaving a greater role for the
private sector.

Incomes are higher, with a greater disparity, and greater economic growth. High
incomes and individualist values reinforce the existing trend towards smaller
households and a generally declining population.
Storylines 4

Regional Sustainability

Technology allows agriculture to adapt to climate change, but there are
tighter controls on the use of genetically modified crops for example than
under the ‘world markets’ scenario. Consensus about sustainable
development is transmitted through participative, open democracies with a
growing role for local governments within more federal political system.

The policy-style is characterized by a strong partnership between
government, industry and non-governmental organizations. There is a strive
for a balance between social values and economic development. A welfare
system is developed through the implementation of various policy alleviation
programs, which provide an adequate safety net for disadvantaged groups.
There is equal access to high quality public education which reinforces social
and environmental values.

Resource intensive agriculture tends to decline and the economy is
increasingly export-oriented, with mobile, highly skilled labour force.

Increasing incomes tend to reduce average household size but this factor is
balanced by the strengthening of community values. Household size
therefore declines slowly and household numbers grow at historic rates.
Socioeconomic Indicators

The number of socioeconomic variables of potential
interest is very large. Because of this and because
of problems in making long-term forecasts, we have
identified variables that are particularly important to
the socioeconomic condition and prospects of our
sector and study area.

Socioeconomic conditions and prospects are in
many respects intangible and complex, and cannot
be measured directly. In the face of such complexity,
a useful and defensible strategy is the use of
indicators that require massive simplification. Some
of the indicators that stakeholders adjudged to be
very significant to them are presented in Table.
INDICATORS
DEMOGRAPHIC
ECONOMIC
SOCIAL
TECHNOLOGY
Index
Measured/Calculated as
Expected
Impact
Dependency ratio
Labour units/consumer units (inverted)
Household Size
Number of people in household
Educational
background of
the household
head
Value given to highest school level
attained by the head of the
household
Quality of household
Number of able persons/ number of
disabled and or sick persons in
the household (inverted)
Livestock ownership
Tropical Livestock
units
Acreage under
cultivation
Hectares/consumer units
Livelihood
diversification
Weighted number of non-agricultural
income
generating
activities/consumer units
Annual cash income
In 1000 Naira/consumer units
Drought Preparedness
Value given to use of drought resistant
crops and livestock and receives
drought related information and
advise
Self-sufficiency in
food production
Number of years surplus foodstuffs
were sold minus number of years
foodstuffs were bought in the
past 10 years
Family and Social
Networks
Value given to strength of family and
social networks.
Degree of
mechanization
of agriculture
Number of farm equipment
machinery used
Units/consumer
and
What Next?



Assemble relevant data
Choose important socioeconomic
determinants and generate quantitative
scenarios for 2025 and 2050.
Do an impact assessment for the chosen
time slices.