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Managing Forests for Adaptation to Climate Change Zoltán Rakonczay WWF – European Forest Programme Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood 24-27 March, 2003, Braşov, Romania Outline Climate Change and Impacts on Forests Natural Adaptation Mechanisms Adaptation Measures Implications for the Use of Wood Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Climate Change is Happening „An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system” (IPCC TAR) It is “very likely” to be happening Caused by anthropogenic sources of GHGs Burning Main of fossil fuels is the main culprit (CO2) issues: adaptation and mitigation Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Changes in the Environment Temperatures are likely to increase – (0.1-0.4°C/decade) Precipitation – increase in the north, decrease in the south – changed seasonal pattern Extreme weather events more frequent – storms, floods, droughts Increased CO2 concentration Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Likely Impacts on Forests Shifting range boundaries – towards the north – towards higher elevations Changes in phenology – lengthening of the growing season – higher evapotranspiration – functional groups may disintegrate due to differing responses to environmental change Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Likely Impacts on Forests (2) Changes in the carbon balance (???) – higher growth (initially?) – higher decomposition/respiration (!) Increased incidents of abiotic damage – windthrow, fire, snow/ice Increased incidents of biotic damage – new pests moving in – increased susceptibility due to stress Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Adaptation Mechanisms Physiological acclimation – trees can tolerate changes within the historic range of environmental variability – exceeding this range can be catastrophic Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Adaptation Mechanisms Physiological acclimation – trees can tolerate changes within the historic range of environmental variability – exceeding this range can be catastrophic In-situ evolution – – – – typically a slow process, many life cycles adequate genetic diversity is a prerequisite losses of diversity (on the short run) speciation (on the long run) Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Adaptation Mechanisms (2) Migration – the most effective adaptation strategy by far – requires freedom of movement along environmental gradients – rate of change is a crucial factor – functional groups have to migrate together (keystone species) Refugia – areas where the special microclimate allowed the survival of species Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 What is Special About Current Climate Change? The rate of change seems to be extraordinarily fast The landscape is no longer pristine – – – – fragmentation altered ecosystems degraded/stressed ecosystems invasive/introduced species Ecosystems serve basic human needs – we cannot afford losing crucial functions Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Implications for the Use of Forest (use of wood - broad sense) Biomass use for energy – fossil fuel substitution Carbon sequestration – lack of use of wood For global climate benefits Adaptation measures – protection/management of forest for biodiversity benefits – to secure services for the long run Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Adaptation Measures Nature reserves – sufficient size – full range of forest types Connectivity – avoid fragmentation – restore connectivity (corridors) Protect climatic refugia / migration corridors – different scales (microhabitats to ecoregions) – historic migration corridors are often degraded Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Adaptation Measures (2) Protect primary forests Provide buffer zones to protected areas Practice low-intensity forestry – small canopy openings to protect microclimate – reasonably complete set of species Maintain genetic diversity at all levels Identify and protect functional groups Monitor changes (adapt mgmt. if needed) Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Implications for the Use of Wood (strict sense) Forest utilisation should give priority to adaptation measures: Use efficiently what forests do provide, instead of trying to grow what you think the market will demand in the distant future. – technological advances (targeted research) – consumption habits of end users (marketing) Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Conclusions Climate change is happening Forests are likely to suffer major impacts Adaptation should be facilitated – recommended measures differ little from sound management under static climate Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Conclusions (2) Adaptation measures should be given priority (precautionary principle) Efficient use of available wood should be promoted – novel technologies – awareness raising / marketing Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003 Zoltán Rakonczay WWF Forest - Climate Change Officer [email protected] tel: +36 1 214 5554 Strategies for the Sound Use of Wood, Braşov, Romania 24-27 March, 2003