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INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN IDAHO: THE INTERSECTION OF BIOPHYSICAL CHANGE WITH SOCIAL PERCEPTION ACROSS A DIVERSE LANDSCAPE Authors*: Zion Klos, John Abatzoglou, Jarod Blades, Melissa Clark, Chistopher Currie, Megan Dodd, Sanford Eigenbrode, Troy Hall, Amanda Haruch, Jeff Hicke, Phil Higuera, Joseph Holbrook, Vincent Jansen, Kerry Kemp, Alycia Lamar, Amber Lankford, Tim Link, Troy Magney, Arjan Meddens, Liza Mitchell, Brandon Moore, Penny Morgan, Beth Newingham, Ryan Niemeyer, Ben Soderquist, Alexis Suazo, Christa Teston, Kerri Vierling, Von Walden, Chelsea Walsh *University of Idaho, multiple colleges and departments 1 OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S TALK 1. Objectives 2. Methods – Biophysical changes – Social perceptions Above and cover photo courtesy Matthew Dolkas 3. Results 4. New Insights for Climate Change Assessments 5. Outreach Goals 2 M AIN O BJECTIVES 1. Provide a framework for finer-scale, indicatorfocused climate change assessments 2. Provide a case example that compares perceived impacts and observed indicators of climate change 3. Understand the differences between types of climate change indicators & how they can be classified by their utility for climate assessments Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 3 I NTERDISCIPLINARY M ETHODS 1. Graduate-student led with input from faculty advisors 2. Conducted stakeholder survey of perceived CC impacts 3. Identified biophysical data sources and CC indicators 4. Created a final interdisciplinary synthesis and translation of findings for general audience Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 4 BIOPHYSICAL CHANGES: OUR INDICATORS FRAMEWORK... “Climate Change Indicators” defined as: Observed climate-related trends in variables from physical, ecological, and social systems Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 5 SOCIAL PERCEPTIONS: OUR SURVEY FRAMEWORK… • What is most important and useful? – Impacts (outcomes) of climate change – Indicators of change • Exploratory survey (N= 100) – Managers asked about personal and professional significance Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 6 PERCEIVED IMPACTS 90 80 70 Sum 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Impacts Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 7 Top 3 Climate Measures and Indicators Relevant Climate Change Indicators Fire danger level restrictions on… Timing of peak visitation during the… Season length of water recreation use Growing season length Frequency/duration of droughts Precipitation patterns Plant phenology Distribution of vegetation species Plant productivity Distribution of wildlife populations Distribution of vegetation species Wildland fire severity Stream flow base-flow discharge Stream flow annual discharge Stream flow timing of peak… General precipitation measures Precipitation seasonality trends Precipitation annual rainfall vs snowfall 0 Social Systems n=109 Agricultural Systems n=69 Rangeland Systems n=46 Forest Systems n=64 Water Systems n=215 Climate n=291 5 10 15 20 25 30 Normalized Importance (%) 8 Top 3 Climate Measures and Indicators Relevant Climate Change Indicators Fire danger level restrictions on… Timing of peak visitation during the… Season length of water recreation use Growing season length Frequency/duration of droughts Precipitation patterns Plant phenology Distribution of vegetation species Plant productivity Distribution of wildlife populations Distribution of vegetation species Wildland fire severity Stream flow base-flow discharge Stream flow annual discharge Stream flow timing of peak… General precipitation measures Precipitation seasonality trends Precipitation annual rainfall vs snowfall 0 Social Systems n=109 Agricultural Systems n=69 Rangeland Systems n=46 Forest Systems n=64 Water Systems n=215 Climate n=291 5 10 15 20 25 30 Normalized Importance (%) 9 CLIMATE CHANGE INDICATORS IDENTIFIED • Temperature – Average annual temperature – Frost-free growing season • Precipitation – Precipitation phase – Snowpack accumulation and melt – Precipitation intensity • Water Systems – Streamflow • Annual discharge • Timing of peak and 50% flow – Stream temperature • Ecological Indicators – Phenology • Lilac blooms • Mountain Bluebird nesting dates (state bird!) • Salmon migration – Disturbance • Wildfire • Bark beetle kill – Species viability and productivity • Sagebrush • Social Indicators – Heat related illness – Recreation • Ski season Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 10 I NTENSIFICATION OF P RECIPITATION E VENTS Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach FROST-FREE GROWING SEASON Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 12 NEW INSIGHTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 13 NEW INSIGHTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS CC Indicator Type Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 14 NEW INSIGHTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS CC Indicator Type Perceived Level of Impact Sum vs. 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Impacts Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 15 NEW INSIGHTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS Perceived level of impact in Idaho Streamflow Drought Snowpack B Human activities Fire disturbance Precipitation Species viability & productivity Biotic disturbance A C Air temperature Plant phenology Stream temperature D Animal phenology Direct measure of climate Example indicators of climate change Species movements Variable partially influenced by climate Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 16 O UTREACH G OALS 1. Website, Online PDF, & Executive Summary – Re-written using more general language – State-wide distribution • Peer Reviewed Publication Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 17 18 19 RESPONSES AND PERCEIVED IMPACTS BY SECTOR Responses by Sector 7% 13% 43% 16% 21% State Agency Federal Agency NGO Corporate or Private Other Climate Indicator Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 20 21 22