Download Indicators of climate change in Idaho: The

INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN IDAHO:
THE INTERSECTION OF BIOPHYSICAL CHANGE WITH
SOCIAL PERCEPTION ACROSS A DIVERSE LANDSCAPE
Authors*: Zion Klos, John Abatzoglou, Jarod Blades, Melissa Clark, Chistopher Currie, Megan
Dodd, Sanford Eigenbrode, Troy Hall, Amanda Haruch, Jeff Hicke, Phil Higuera, Joseph Holbrook,
Vincent Jansen, Kerry Kemp, Alycia Lamar, Amber Lankford, Tim Link, Troy Magney, Arjan
Meddens, Liza Mitchell, Brandon Moore, Penny Morgan, Beth Newingham, Ryan Niemeyer, Ben
Soderquist, Alexis Suazo, Christa Teston, Kerri Vierling, Von Walden, Chelsea Walsh
*University of Idaho, multiple colleges and departments
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OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S
TALK
1. Objectives
2. Methods
– Biophysical changes
– Social perceptions
Above and cover photo courtesy Matthew Dolkas
3. Results
4. New Insights for Climate Change
Assessments
5. Outreach Goals
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M AIN O BJECTIVES
1. Provide a framework for finer-scale, indicatorfocused climate change assessments
2. Provide a case example that compares perceived
impacts and observed indicators of climate change
3. Understand the differences between types of
climate change indicators & how they can be
classified by their utility for climate assessments
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach
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I NTERDISCIPLINARY M ETHODS
1. Graduate-student
led with input from
faculty advisors
2. Conducted
stakeholder survey
of perceived CC
impacts
3. Identified biophysical
data sources and CC
indicators
4. Created a final
interdisciplinary
synthesis and
translation of
findings for general
audience
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach
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BIOPHYSICAL CHANGES:
OUR INDICATORS FRAMEWORK...
“Climate Change Indicators” defined as:
Observed climate-related trends in variables from
physical, ecological, and social systems
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach
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SOCIAL PERCEPTIONS:
OUR SURVEY FRAMEWORK…
• What is most important and useful?
– Impacts (outcomes) of climate change
– Indicators of change
• Exploratory survey (N= 100)
– Managers asked about personal and professional
significance
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach
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PERCEIVED IMPACTS
90
80
70
Sum
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Impacts
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach
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Top 3 Climate Measures and Indicators
Relevant Climate Change Indicators
Fire danger level restrictions on…
Timing of peak visitation during the…
Season length of water recreation use
Growing season length
Frequency/duration of droughts
Precipitation patterns
Plant phenology
Distribution of vegetation species
Plant productivity
Distribution of wildlife populations
Distribution of vegetation species
Wildland fire severity
Stream flow base-flow discharge
Stream flow annual discharge
Stream flow timing of peak…
General precipitation measures
Precipitation seasonality trends
Precipitation annual rainfall vs snowfall
0
Social
Systems
n=109
Agricultural
Systems
n=69
Rangeland
Systems
n=46
Forest
Systems
n=64
Water
Systems
n=215
Climate
n=291
5
10
15
20
25
30
Normalized Importance (%)
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Top 3 Climate Measures and Indicators
Relevant Climate Change Indicators
Fire danger level restrictions on…
Timing of peak visitation during the…
Season length of water recreation use
Growing season length
Frequency/duration of droughts
Precipitation patterns
Plant phenology
Distribution of vegetation species
Plant productivity
Distribution of wildlife populations
Distribution of vegetation species
Wildland fire severity
Stream flow base-flow discharge
Stream flow annual discharge
Stream flow timing of peak…
General precipitation measures
Precipitation seasonality trends
Precipitation annual rainfall vs snowfall
0
Social
Systems
n=109
Agricultural
Systems
n=69
Rangeland
Systems
n=46
Forest
Systems
n=64
Water
Systems
n=215
Climate
n=291
5
10
15
20
25
30
Normalized Importance (%)
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CLIMATE CHANGE INDICATORS
IDENTIFIED
• Temperature
– Average annual temperature
– Frost-free growing season
• Precipitation
– Precipitation phase
– Snowpack accumulation and
melt
– Precipitation intensity
• Water Systems
– Streamflow
• Annual discharge
• Timing of peak and 50% flow
– Stream temperature
• Ecological Indicators
– Phenology
• Lilac blooms
• Mountain Bluebird nesting dates
(state bird!)
• Salmon migration
– Disturbance
• Wildfire
• Bark beetle kill
– Species viability and
productivity
• Sagebrush
• Social Indicators
– Heat related illness
– Recreation
• Ski season
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach
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I NTENSIFICATION
OF
P RECIPITATION E VENTS
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach
FROST-FREE GROWING
SEASON
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach
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NEW INSIGHTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach
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NEW INSIGHTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS
CC Indicator Type
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach
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NEW INSIGHTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS
CC Indicator Type
Perceived Level
of Impact
Sum
vs.
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Impacts
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach
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NEW INSIGHTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS
Perceived level of impact in Idaho
Streamflow
Drought
Snowpack
B
Human
activities
Fire
disturbance
Precipitation
Species
viability &
productivity
Biotic
disturbance
A
C
Air
temperature
Plant
phenology
Stream
temperature
D
Animal
phenology
Direct
measure
of climate
Example indicators of climate change
Species
movements
Variable
partially
influenced
by climate
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach
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O UTREACH G OALS
1. Website, Online PDF, &
Executive Summary
– Re-written using more
general language
– State-wide distribution
• Peer Reviewed
Publication
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach
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RESPONSES AND PERCEIVED IMPACTS BY SECTOR
Responses by Sector
7%
13%
43%
16%
21%
State Agency
Federal Agency
NGO
Corporate or Private
Other
Climate Indicator
Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach
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