Download Climate risk, climate change and climate smart

Development in a Changing Climate
World Development Report 2010
Marianne Fay
Co-Director
February 2009
Storyline
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The facts:
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The hypothesis:
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Worsening news on CC since the IPCC
CC – a significant and immediate challenge
CC having a disproportionate impact on developing
countries
A precautionary approach is justified
It is affordable, though that requires global action
Global action is in everybody’s interest
The challenges:
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A “fair” deal to enable global action
Adaptation required under the most optimistic scenario
No silver bullet on mitigation
The facts –
Worsening news since the IPCC
The facts –
An immediate challenge:
A tragedy-of-the-commons with time
lags…
• Inertia:
• in the climate system
• in the capital stock and the built
environment
• in technology
• in behaviors and institutions
• + uncertainty
• Thresholds and tipping points
• = need for precaution
The facts –
Climate change will have a disproportionate
impact on developing countries
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Developing countries inherently
more vulnerable
Not entirely due to lower incomes
Some numbers:
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2oC warming => 1% world income
loss, 4% in Africa, 5% in India
The hypothesis:
A precautionary approach is justified and
affordable
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Likely committed to 2oC
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All agree BAU unacceptable
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Cost difference between “economic
optimum” and precaution is affordable
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0.3% of annual income for 2oC
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<0.1% for 2.5oC (+ cost/benefit ratio)
… an insurance premium
The hypothesis:
Affordability – unfortunately- requires global
action
Sources: emissions data are from CDIAC (2007) and EIA (2006); population data from WDI (2008); mitigation opportunities
for 2020 - average over range (McKinsey 2009; own calculations based on data reported in IPCC 2009).
The hypothesis:
Global action is in everybody’s interest
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The tab is large: $8 to $25 trillion
Delay to 2020 by developing countries
more than double the costs
Deadweight loss $20 to 50 trillion… room
to bargain
… and anticipation creates savings for all
The challenge:
it’s an unfair world
The challenge:
A “fair” deal to enable global action
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Advantageous is not enough
High income countries must:
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Reduce their emissions
Facilitate adaptation and mitigation in
developing ocuntries
Massively invest in climate innovation
Need to ensure developing world not
locked into uneven distribution
But…what do high income countries need?
The challenge:
Adaptation required under the most
optimistic scenario
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2oC minimum
Climate-smart development
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Robust, rather than optimal decision
making
Fix all that needs to be fixed…
Massive improvement in management
of land and water
Decouple growth and energy
Social protection!
The Challenges:
No
silver bullet
onatmitigation
Stabilization
of CO2
550ppm
eference Case
1400
Future
History
Future
2100 CO 2
Concentration
1200
2100 CO 2
Concentration
~740 ppm
1000
~550 ppm
EJ/year
.
resent CO 2
oncentration
380 ppm
800
Present CO 2
Concentration
600
~380 ppm
400
Fossil fuel
200
2000
2050
Gas
s Energy
mass Renewable Energy
2100
0
1850
1900
1950
Oil + CCS
Natural Gas + CCS
Coal + CCS
Nuclear Energy
End-use Energy
2000
2050
2100
Biomass
Nuclear Energy
Renewables
End-use Energy
Take-away messages
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Climate change is an immediate and
significant problem
A precautionary approach is justified and
affordable
All stand to gain from global cooperation
High income countries need to do a whole
lot more
Climate-smart development will be
needed
Change starts at home
“With our helpful hands we can
do many useful things”
Soo Min Shin, 8 years old, Thailand