Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Voluntary Training Program 2012 Climate change and shipping Outline The greenhouse effect and the Earth’s climate system The …human element in climate: Emissions of greenhouse gases How is climate changing? Impacts Climate change and the Mediterranean Regulations on the energy efficiency of ships Marine Environmental Awareness Course The greenhouse effect and the Earth’s climate system Marine Environmental Awareness Course The greenhouse effect About 30% of the incoming solar radiation is directly reflected by the atmosphere (clouds, dust particles, aerosols) and the earth surface The rest 70% is absorbed by the atmosphere, oceans and land Trace gases in the earth’s atmosphere (greenhouse gases) re-absorb most of the outgoing infrared radiation and sent it back to earth. Natural GHGs Carbon Dioxide CO2 All components of the earth system are heated by the absorbed energy and emit part of it as long-wave (infrared) radiation. Marine Environmental Awareness Course Methane CH4 Nitrous Oxide N2O Water Vapour H2O The greenhouse effect: too much of a good thing… The Earth without the greenhouse effect The Earth thanks to the greenhouse effect Average temperature -18 oC Average temperature 14 oC The Earth with enhanced greenhouse effect Average temperature >14.5 oC (so far…) Marine Environmental Awareness Course Global distribution of solar energy input Mean annual global insolation Marine Environmental Awareness Course Redistributing heat throughout the globe: the global ocean conveyor belt… Marine Environmental Awareness Course The Earth’s climate system components Marine Environmental Awareness Course Climate changes constantly over various timescales due to natural variability… Temperature change from present, oC Source: NOAA Marine Environmental Awareness Course The …human element in climate: Emissions of greenhouse gases Marine Environmental Awareness Course Marine Environmental Awareness Course Human-induced increases in GHGs Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Greenhouse gases Concentration (1750) Concentration (2009) Increase Warming potential RF Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 280 ppm 386.8 ppm 38% 1 63.6% Methane (CH4) 700 ppb 1803 ppb 158% 21 18.1% Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 270 ppb 322.5 ppb 19% 310 6.3% - 900 ppt - 140 - 23900 12% F-gases (CFCs,HFCs,SF6) Marine Environmental Awareness Course Human-induced increases in GHGs Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Greenhouse gases Concentration (1750) Concentration (2009) Increase Warming potential RF Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 280 ppm 386.8 ppm 38% 1 63.6% Methane (CH4) 700 ppb 1803 ppb 158% 21 18.1% Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 270 ppb 322.5 ppb 19% 310 6.3% - 900 ppt - 140 - 23900 12% F-gases (CFCs,HFCs,SF6) CO2 (ppm) Marine Environmental Awareness Course Human-induced increases in GHGs Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Greenhouse gases Concentration (1750) Concentration (2009) Increase Warming potential RF Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 280 ppm 386.8 ppm 38% 1 63.6% Methane (CH4) 700 ppb 1803 ppb 158% 21 18.1% Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 270 ppb 322.5 ppb 19% 310 6.3% - 900 ppt - 140 - 23900 12% F-gases (CFCs,HFCs,SF6) CH4 (ppb) Marine Environmental Awareness Course Human-induced increases in GHGs Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Greenhouse gases Concentration (1750) Concentration (2009) Increase Warming potential RF Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 280 ppm 386.8 ppm 38% 1 63.6% Methane (CH4) 700 ppb 1803 ppb 158% 21 18.1% Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 270 ppb 322.5 ppb 19% 310 6.3% - 900 ppt - 140 - 23900 12% F-gases (CFCs,HFCs,SF6) N2O (ppb) Marine Environmental Awareness Course Human-induced increases in GHGs Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Greenhouse gases Concentration (1750) Concentration (2009) Increase Warming potential RF Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 280 ppm 386.8 ppm 38% 1 63.6% Methane (CH4) 700 ppb 1803 ppb 158% 21 18.1% Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 270 ppb 322.5 ppb 19% 310 6.3% - 900 ppt - 140 - 23900 12% F-gases (CFCs,HFCs,SF6) Marine Environmental Awareness Course Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO) The human element… Model simulations show clearly that temperature increase since 1950 is induced by human activities Marine Environmental Awareness Course Sources of CO2 emissions 26% 74% (thousands tones) (thousands tones) Power production, industrial activities, transports Changes in land use, deforestation, urbanization Marine Environmental Awareness Course CO2 emissions per sector (2007) Source: Second IMO GHG Study 2009 Marine Environmental Awareness Course 870 million tones How is climate changing? Marine Environmental Awareness Course Source: NOAA Marine Environmental Awareness Course Global warming… Marine Environmental Awareness Course Melting of glaciers, retreat of sea ice and sea level rise… Alaska, Muir Glacier 13 August 1941 31 August 2004 Marine Environmental Awareness Course Melting of glaciers, retreat of sea ice and sea level rise… Marine Environmental Awareness Course Melting of glaciers, retreat of sea ice and sea level rise… Marine Environmental Awareness Course Melting of glaciers, retreat of sea ice and sea level rise… Marine Environmental Awareness Course Melting of glaciers, retreat of sea ice and sea level rise… Marine Environmental Awareness Course Changes in rainfall patterns… Marine Environmental Awareness Course Increased frequency of extreme weather events Marine Environmental Awareness Course Impacts Marine Environmental Awareness Course Marine Environmental Awareness Course Marine environment and climate change Source: IPCC Warming (up to 3000 m depth) Changes in salinity Disturbance of ocean currents (conveyor belt) Blue bars: change between 1961 – 2003 Red bars: change between 1993 - 2003 Marine Environmental Awareness Course Marine environment and climate change Warming (up to 3000 m depth) Changes in salinity Disturbance of ocean currents (conveyor belt) Acidification Marine Environmental Awareness Course Marine environment and climate change CO2 + H2O H2CO3 H2CO3 H+ + HCO3- H+ + CO32- HCO3CaCO3 Ca2+ + CO32- Marine Environmental Awareness Course Marine environment and climate change Habitat losses Coral bleaching Changes in the life cycle and distribution of many species, increased risk of species invasions, biodiversity losses Marine Environmental Awareness Course Marine environment and climate change Changes in wind conditions, average wave height, sea ice coverage, sea level etc. have serious implications for shipping and related infrastructure. Marine Environmental Awareness Course Focus on the Mediterranean Marine Environmental Awareness Course As a general trend, over the last decades Mediterranean climate has become progressively hotter and drier Average summer temperature has increased up to 3 οC Average winter precipitation has decreased by 20% Marine Environmental Awareness Course As a general trend, over the last decades Mediterranean climate has become progressively hotter and drier Droughts, summer heat waves and fires have increased both in frequency and intensity and are expected to worsen in the near future, resulting in widespread desertification of the area Marine Environmental Awareness Course As a general trend, over the last decades Mediterranean climate has become progressively hotter and drier Lack of freshwater, especially during the summer period, is a major threat for an area representing less than 3% of the global freshwater reservoir and hosting 50% of the global population already suffering from limited access to water resources. Marine Environmental Awareness Course As a general trend, over the last decades Mediterranean climate has become progressively hotter and drier Meditteranean sea is getting warmer: surface temperatures have increased 0.8 – 1.4 oC and deep water (>250 m) has become 0.12 oC warmer. Changes in circulation are already observed Marine Environmental Awareness Course Water resources at stake… Marine Environmental Awareness Course As a general trend, over the last decades Mediterranean climate has become progressively hotter and drier Warming of sea water favors and accelerates the migration and expansion of introduced species of tropical origin (>600 in the Eastern Mediterranean) northwards and westwards Marine Environmental Awareness Course A glimpse to the future… Climate system is complex… Human society is even more complex… Naturally, projections of future climate change show huge deviations Marine Environmental Awareness Course Regulations on the energy efficiency of ships Marine Environmental Awareness Course Shipping is by far the most energy efficient mode of transport… Source: Second IMO GHG Study 2009 Marine Environmental Awareness Course But there is still great potential (and need) for improvement… World seaborne trade (billion tonne miles) Marine Environmental Awareness Course Regulations on energy efficiency of ships (new chapter 4 of MARPOL Annex VI) are expected to enter into force on 1 January 2013 Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) new ships over 400 GRT Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) all ships over 400 GRT Marine Environmental Awareness Course Energy efficiency design index (EEDI) (grams CO2 / capacity * nautical mile) Marine Environmental Awareness Course Energy efficiency design index (EEDI) Marine Environmental Awareness Course Energy efficiency design index (EEDI) 10% reduction for ships built between 2015 – 2020 Indicative baseline for a certain ship type 20% reduction for ships built between 2020 – 2025 30% reduction for ships built after 2025 Required reduction (x%) Marine Environmental Awareness Course Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) Planning Implementation Monitoring Self – evaluation & improvement Marine Environmental Awareness Course Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) Some possible practices for fuel-efficient operation of ships Resolution MEPC.213(63) Planning Implementation Monitoring Improved voyage planning Weather routing Just in time Speed optimization Optimized shaft power Optimum trim Optimum ballast Optimum propeller and propeller inflow Hull maintenance Propulsion system maintenance Improved fleet management and energy management ......... Self – evaluation & improvement Marine Environmental Awareness Course Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) Planning Implementation Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI) Monitoring Self – evaluation & improvement Marine Environmental Awareness Course Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) Planning Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI) Implementation ΕΕΟΙ = Actual fuel consumption x Ccarbon (g CO2 / g fuel) Actual cargo transported x distance travelled Ccarbon Monitoring 3,206 3,151 3,114 Self – evaluation & improvement 2,968 2,931 Marine Environmental Awareness Course Thank you for your attention! Questions Marine Environmental Awareness Course