Download Topic 5_Climate change and shipping

Voluntary Training Program 2012
Climate change and shipping
Outline

The greenhouse effect and the Earth’s climate
system

The …human element in climate:
Emissions of greenhouse gases

How is climate changing?

Impacts

Climate change and the Mediterranean

Regulations on the energy efficiency of ships
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
The greenhouse effect and
the Earth’s climate system
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
The greenhouse effect
About 30% of the incoming solar radiation is
directly reflected by the atmosphere (clouds,
dust particles, aerosols) and the earth surface
The rest 70% is absorbed by the
atmosphere, oceans and land
Trace gases in the earth’s
atmosphere (greenhouse
gases) re-absorb most of the
outgoing infrared radiation
and sent it back to earth.
Natural GHGs
Carbon Dioxide CO2
All components of the earth system are heated by the
absorbed energy and emit part of it as long-wave
(infrared) radiation.
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Methane
CH4
Nitrous Oxide
N2O
Water Vapour
H2O
The greenhouse effect: too much of a good thing…
The Earth without the greenhouse effect
The Earth thanks to the greenhouse effect
Average temperature -18 oC
Average temperature 14 oC
The Earth with enhanced greenhouse effect
Average temperature >14.5 oC
(so far…)
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Global distribution of solar energy input
Mean annual global
insolation
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Redistributing heat throughout the globe:
the global ocean conveyor belt…
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The Earth’s climate system components
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Climate changes constantly over various timescales due to natural
variability…
Temperature change from present, oC
Source: NOAA
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The …human element in climate:
Emissions of greenhouse gases
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Human-induced increases in GHGs
Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Greenhouse gases
Concentration
(1750)
Concentration
(2009)
Increase
Warming
potential
RF
Carbon Dioxide
(CO2)
280 ppm
386.8 ppm
38%
1
63.6%
Methane (CH4)
700 ppb
1803 ppb
158%
21
18.1%
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
270 ppb
322.5 ppb
19%
310
6.3%
-
900 ppt
-
140 - 23900
12%
F-gases
(CFCs,HFCs,SF6)
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Human-induced increases in GHGs
Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Greenhouse gases
Concentration
(1750)
Concentration
(2009)
Increase
Warming
potential
RF
Carbon Dioxide
(CO2)
280 ppm
386.8 ppm
38%
1
63.6%
Methane (CH4)
700 ppb
1803 ppb
158%
21
18.1%
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
270 ppb
322.5 ppb
19%
310
6.3%
-
900 ppt
-
140 - 23900
12%
F-gases
(CFCs,HFCs,SF6)
CO2 (ppm)
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Human-induced increases in GHGs
Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Greenhouse gases
Concentration
(1750)
Concentration
(2009)
Increase
Warming
potential
RF
Carbon Dioxide
(CO2)
280 ppm
386.8 ppm
38%
1
63.6%
Methane (CH4)
700 ppb
1803 ppb
158%
21
18.1%
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
270 ppb
322.5 ppb
19%
310
6.3%
-
900 ppt
-
140 - 23900
12%
F-gases
(CFCs,HFCs,SF6)
CH4 (ppb)
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Human-induced increases in GHGs
Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Greenhouse gases
Concentration
(1750)
Concentration
(2009)
Increase
Warming
potential
RF
Carbon Dioxide
(CO2)
280 ppm
386.8 ppm
38%
1
63.6%
Methane (CH4)
700 ppb
1803 ppb
158%
21
18.1%
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
270 ppb
322.5 ppb
19%
310
6.3%
-
900 ppt
-
140 - 23900
12%
F-gases
(CFCs,HFCs,SF6)
N2O (ppb)
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Human-induced increases in GHGs
Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Greenhouse gases
Concentration
(1750)
Concentration
(2009)
Increase
Warming
potential
RF
Carbon Dioxide
(CO2)
280 ppm
386.8 ppm
38%
1
63.6%
Methane (CH4)
700 ppb
1803 ppb
158%
21
18.1%
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
270 ppb
322.5 ppb
19%
310
6.3%
-
900 ppt
-
140 - 23900
12%
F-gases
(CFCs,HFCs,SF6)
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
The human element…
Model simulations
show clearly that
temperature increase
since 1950 is induced
by human activities
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Sources of CO2 emissions
26%
74%
(thousands tones)
(thousands tones)
Power production,
industrial activities, transports
Changes in land use,
deforestation, urbanization
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CO2 emissions per sector (2007)
Source: Second IMO GHG Study 2009
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870 million tones
How is climate changing?
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Source: NOAA
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Global warming…
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Melting of glaciers, retreat of sea ice and sea level rise…
Alaska, Muir Glacier
13 August 1941
31 August 2004
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Melting of glaciers, retreat of sea ice and sea level rise…
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Melting of glaciers, retreat of sea ice and sea level rise…
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Melting of glaciers, retreat of sea ice and sea level rise…
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Melting of glaciers, retreat of sea ice and sea level rise…
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Changes in rainfall patterns…
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Increased frequency of extreme weather events
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Impacts
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Marine environment and climate change
Source: IPCC
 Warming (up to 3000 m depth)
 Changes in salinity
 Disturbance of ocean currents
(conveyor belt)
Blue bars: change between 1961 – 2003
Red bars: change between 1993 - 2003
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Marine environment and climate change
 Warming (up to 3000 m depth)
 Changes in salinity
 Disturbance of ocean currents
(conveyor belt)
 Acidification
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Marine environment and climate change
CO2 + H2O  H2CO3
H2CO3

H+ + HCO3-
H+ + CO32-  HCO3CaCO3  Ca2+ + CO32-
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Marine environment and climate change
 Habitat losses
 Coral bleaching
 Changes in the life cycle and distribution of many species, increased risk of
species invasions, biodiversity losses
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Marine environment and climate change
 Changes in wind conditions, average wave height, sea ice coverage, sea level
etc. have serious implications for shipping and related infrastructure.
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Focus on the Mediterranean
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
As a general trend, over the last
decades Mediterranean climate has
become progressively hotter and drier
Average summer temperature has
increased up to 3 οC
Average winter precipitation has
decreased by 20%
Marine Environmental Awareness Course

As a general trend, over the last
decades Mediterranean climate has
become progressively hotter and drier
Droughts, summer heat waves and
fires have increased both in frequency
and intensity and are expected to
worsen in the near future, resulting in
widespread desertification of the area
Marine Environmental Awareness Course

As a general trend, over the last
decades Mediterranean climate has
become progressively hotter and drier
Lack of freshwater, especially during the summer
period, is a major threat for an area representing
less than 3% of the global freshwater reservoir and
hosting 50% of the global population already
suffering from limited access to water resources.
Marine Environmental Awareness Course

As a general trend, over the last
decades Mediterranean climate has
become progressively hotter and drier
Meditteranean sea is getting warmer:
surface temperatures have increased
0.8 – 1.4 oC and deep water (>250 m)
has become 0.12 oC warmer. Changes
in circulation are already observed
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Water resources at stake…
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
As a general trend, over the last
decades Mediterranean climate has
become progressively hotter and drier
Warming of sea water favors and accelerates the
migration and expansion of introduced species of
tropical origin (>600 in the Eastern Mediterranean)
northwards and westwards
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
A glimpse to the future…
Climate system is complex…
Human society is even more
complex…
Naturally, projections of future
climate change show huge
deviations
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Regulations on the energy efficiency of ships
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Shipping is by far the most energy efficient mode of transport…
Source: Second IMO GHG Study 2009
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But there is still great potential (and need) for improvement…
World seaborne trade (billion tonne miles)
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Regulations on energy efficiency of ships (new chapter 4 of MARPOL Annex VI)
are expected to enter into force on 1 January 2013
Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI)
new ships over 400 GRT
Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP)
all ships over 400 GRT
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Energy efficiency design index (EEDI)
(grams CO2 / capacity * nautical mile)
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Energy efficiency design index (EEDI)
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Energy efficiency design index (EEDI)
10% reduction for ships built
between 2015 – 2020
Indicative baseline for a certain ship type
20% reduction for ships built
between 2020 – 2025
30% reduction for ships built
after 2025
Required reduction (x%)
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP)
Planning
Implementation
Monitoring
Self – evaluation &
improvement
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP)
Some possible practices for fuel-efficient operation of ships
Resolution MEPC.213(63)
Planning
Implementation
Monitoring
Improved voyage planning
Weather routing
Just in time
Speed optimization
Optimized shaft power
Optimum trim
Optimum ballast
Optimum propeller and propeller inflow
Hull maintenance
Propulsion system maintenance
Improved fleet management and energy
management
.........
Self – evaluation &
improvement
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP)
Planning
Implementation
Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI)
Monitoring
Self – evaluation &
improvement
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP)
Planning
Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI)
Implementation
ΕΕΟΙ =
Actual fuel consumption x Ccarbon (g CO2 / g fuel)
Actual cargo transported x distance travelled
Ccarbon
Monitoring
3,206
3,151
3,114
Self – evaluation &
improvement
2,968
2,931
Marine Environmental Awareness Course
Thank you for your attention!
Questions
Marine Environmental Awareness Course