Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
+ + + + + + + Beyond Kyoto A Long-Term Target: Framing the Climate Effort Prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change by Jonathan Pershing (International Energy Agency) Fernando Tudela (El Colegio de México) + + + + + Climate Change: a long-term challenge Impacts: huge time lags (over a century) Mitigation: long life cycles Political systems: ill prepared to cope with long-term problems Societies heavily discount distant impacts: + Time line + + Long-term targets + Article 2 UNFCCC: stabilize concentrations to avoid dangerous interference…+ qualifier.. + UNFCCC + KP: emphasis on short-term action + Climate regime needs bolstering + Could negotiating a long-term target be useful / essential to + + boost / guide action? The case for long-term targets + + + + + + + Defining a goal for climate efforts Awareness of long-term consequences Calibrating progress: Are we on track? Enhancing economic certainty: stable signals for technological change Limiting future risks Mobilizing society Promoting global participation Some Parties are already adopting non-binding long-term targets: EU, UK, Sweden + + + + + + + The Climate Cycle + + + + + + + The Climate Cycle + + + + + + + The Climate Cycle + + + + + + + The Climate Cycle + + + + + + + The Climate Cycle + + + + + + + The Climate Cycle + + + + + + + The Climate Cycle: Backcasting + + + Setting targets at different stages A target at any stage has effects on the others Target setting involves the whole cycle Entry point would frame the process – – + + + + Early stages: strongest control, shorter time lags Later stages: higher legitimacy (specific risks avoided), but: huge time lags + accumulated uncertainties The paper addresses target setting at every stage: – – – – Possible form of the target implications for other stages Pros & cons Negotiation´s hurdles + + CO2, temperature, impacts, emissions, and cost Eventual Time of CO2 stabiliStabilizati zation* on level† Mean surface temperature change by 2100** + + + + + Mean surface temperature change (at equilibrium)** Risks by 2100 Five selected reasons of concern*** (white- red scale) Cumulative Carbon Emissions 1990-2100 **** (GtC) Possible pathway (Global emissions peaking at…GtC/ year, by year…) Cost: Global average GDP reduction in year 2050 450 ppm 2100 1.2 - 2.3°C 1.5 – 3.9°C I: white; II, III: yelloworange; IV, V: orange-red 630- 650 9 GtC by 2020 1- 4.1% 550 ppm 2150 1.6 – 2.9°C 2.0 – 5.0°C I: yellow; II, III: yelloworange; IV, V: red 870- 990 11 GtC no later than 2030 0.1- 1.7% 650 ppm 2200 1.8 – 3.1°C 2.4 – 6.1°C I: yellow; II, III: orange; IV, V: red 1030-1190 750 ppm 2250 1.9 – 3.4°C 2.8 – 7.0°C I: yellow; II, III: orange; IV, V: red 1200- 1300 1000 ppm 2375 2.0 – 3.5°C 3.5 – 8.7°C I: yelloworange; II, III: orange; IV, V: red ____ ___ 13 GtC by 2070 ____ 0- 1.5% 0- 1.0% ___ + + + Setting a long-term target: the obstacles Technical difficulties: uncertainties Political obstacles: – Global burden defined – defining “acceptable risk” + + + + burden sharing compensations – Equity issues become central – Dilemma: negotiation´s success vs stringency of outcome – Limited “negotiating energy”; morale hurt by failure Conclusions + + + + + + + Negotiating a long-term target: liabilities outweigh potential benefits If undertaken at all, the negotiation should focus on the earliest stages of the cycle: activities, emissions [input rather than output] Alternatives to a long-term target: Hedging: a medium-term target that would leave some long-term concentration target open Targets with limited constituency (but including leading players) Notional target, informal adoption Directional goad based on strengthened science + A Hedging Strategy + + + + + Source: IPCC + + + Conclusions II More important than any tool, including targetsetting, is willingness to act + + + + + The value of developing a long-term target will depend on whether or not the negotiating process fosters political will + For More Information + + + + + + www.pewclimate.org