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Can new regional water policy transfer IWRM from myth to
reality?
)
(Case study:Jordan valley
Abdel rahman tamimi
Palestinian Hydrology Group
[email protected]
Birzeit university
November 1st ,2011
Social justice
&
Optimal
management
point
IWRM Approach
Social
Enabling
Environment
1.Legal
arrangement
2. institutional
arrangement
IWRM point
SOCIAL DIMENSION
1. SOCIAL CONFLICT
2. SOCIAL AGENDA
3. SOCIAL ACCEPTANCY OF IWRM
OPTIONS
4. 4.SOCIAL PARTICIPATION
5. Gender consideration
ECONOMIC DIMENSION
1. cost – benefit
2. Affordability
Economic
3. Economic sustainability
5 Ts Approach to understand & to act
•
•
•
•
•
Trends
Tensions
Transitions
Today
Tomorrow to late
Socioeconomic trends
The most important pillar of IWRM is the understanding and
counting the major trends of socioeconomic trends such as:
• Income :The trends of income and economic growth are
the main drivers for people willingness to pay and
affordability .
GDP growth
rate.
Poverty
Un employment
Socioeconomic trends
• Unemployment :
due to the lack of proper water policy to
deal with drought water scarcity ,many countries ( in particular agriculture
communities )suffer from rising unemployment rates , the consequences
of that high rates are effecting badly the other major socioeconomic
indicators related water ( affordability, willingness to pay .etc )
• (
Trends in working farm populations, 1970-2008 (cheam)
Socioeconomic uncertainties
• (it is so difficult to implement the principals of IWRM without flexible,
multi-option based water policy as a cope mechanisms to deal with
uncertainties. ( uncertainties can be natural (e.g. ; long term drought) or
manmade such as ( e.g. ;pollution or lack of social stability)
TENSIONS
• Climate change: Climate change is increasingly being securitized, as fears of the
destabilization effects of climate change mount. In 2009 the UN General Assembly adopted a
non-binding resolution on climate change as an international security problem
(A/Res/63/281 11 June 2009). However, how climate change affects regional comprehensive
security (livelihoods, poverty, food security has not been made clear yetrch.
•
TENSIONS
• Good governance and institutional reforms :
without monitoring the main indicators of good governance
and reform process the efficient water policy approach will
not be able to enable the environment to apply the policy
components
Under standing the problem
Technical
problems
Do Nothing Results: Domestic
TENSIONS
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT
GÖTTINGEN
Mean, Dry and Wet Year conditions / Auja Spring
Auja spring –
Mean: about 9.7 MCM/a
Range: 0.7 – 18.0 MCM/a
TRANSITIONS
.
Step Approach towards IWRM in the LJV
Step 1: Water Resources System Analysis
Step 2: Socio-Economic Development and Climate Change
Step 3: Water Budgets
Step 4: Identification of IWRM Measures
Step 5: Local IWRM Strategies as combined Measures
Step 6: Selection of Priority Strategies
Step 7: Integration and consolidation of local strategies
Step 8: Performance and impact assessment of selected strategies
Step 9: Final strategy evaluation and ranking
Step 10: Guidelines for regional IWRM implementation
.
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT
GÖTTINGEN
Step1. understand the system

Mean monthly surface water availability (spring
discharge + runoff) is plotted versus future
agricultural water demand

Mean hydrological condition is taken in
consideration

25% loss of surface water is considered
(pipeline construction)

Extension of agricultural area to 1200 ha within
next 10 years

Estimated present water surplus is approx. 0.6
MCM/a and concentrated on the months of
January to March.

This volume of water can be stored via MAR
techniques to use in dry months
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT
GÖTTINGEN
Highly variable surface runoff / Flash-floods
Related problems:
 Short duration high itensity
 High sediment
load
 Water quality
issues
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT
GÖTTINGEN
Measure: Import of treated effluents from Al Bireh
Al Bireh wastewater
treatment plant
Yearly discharge
about 2 Mio. m³
Option would
require 25 km
pipeline
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT
GÖTTINGEN
MAR Planning at Auja – long-term water budget

4 MCM storage capacity, via MAR,
allows 32 MCM storage
 loss reduced to 47 MCM
4 MCM

Reliability: 91%

A storage capacity of 18 MCM
would be required to store all
surplus water.
 Feasibility ?

Preliminary simulation studies
 Further time series analysis and
budget studies are required to
consolidate the results
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT
GÖTTINGEN
MAR Planning at Auja – long-term water budget
Surface water supply reliability and losses according to storage capacity

30 years historical data ( 1967-1997) of monthly surface water (spring
discharge and runoff) transferred to the time horizon, 2010-2040

Agricultural expansion: 5200 dunum to 7200 (8415 dunum) within 10 years
(2010-2020). 2020-2040: no further agricultural expansion

Agricultural water requirement to 1000 mm/dunum

Surface water loss from new pipeline: 25%

Reliability on demand = (Σ covered agric. demand / Σ Agric. demand)

Surface water loss = Σ( monthly surplus water- monthly stored water)

No climate change scenario
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT
GÖTTINGEN
Step 2: Socio-Economic Development & Climate Change
Wadi Auja

Local socio-economic development depends on irrigated agriculture

Irrigated area is constant since 20 years (5200 dunum = 520 ha)
Agricultural Development and Water Trade Options (AD)

To cope with the need for socio-economic development 7 options for
agricultural development and water trade have been defined which are based on
the followng assumptions:

Maximum irrigable area around Auja village is 12000 dunum (1200 ha)

Water demand regular agriculture: 1000mm/dunum

Palm tree and greenhouse irrigation: 1500mm/dunum

Extension of irrigated area within 10 years
 The defined AD options are quite different – trying to define edges of the
feasible region in the decision space
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT
GÖTTINGEN
Step 4: Identification of IWRM Measures
IWRM MEASURE /WEIGTING
INDICATOR
Social
applicability
accept Cost
/implement National
ance benefits ability
agenda
Demand Management measures
Rehabilitation domestic wells
Rehabilitation of domestic
systems
Replacement of water meter
water
supply
Rehabilitation of springs
Rehabilitation of springs conveyance systems
Rehabilitation of irrigation water wells
Rehabilitation
systems
of
irrigation
Supply Management
Water harvesting
Artificial recharge
Waste water Treatment and reuse
brackish water
conveyance
contribution
to the
region
stability
Feasibility
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT
GÖTTINGEN
Step 5: Local IWRM Strategies as combined Measures
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT
GÖTTINGEN
Step 6: Selection of Priority IWRM Strategies
 Socio-economic and environmental impact assessment studies are time
and money consuming 
 It is suggested to do a preliminary screening of IWRM strategies in order
to select the most promising ones
 For this purpose, the Analytical Hierarchy Process AHP (Saaty, 1980) is
being applied which provides a ranking of alternative strategies based
on:
 Representative socio-economic and environmental decision criteria;
 A participative decision making process
 Criteria grouping (hierarchy);
 Criteria weighting and pairwise comparison with regards to
alternatives
 No criteria quantification is required at this step !
Methodology of Ranking
multi stages multi stakeholders weighting
process
1. Ranking by experts
2. Ranking by stakeholders
3. Ranking by stakeholders/experts Delphi technique
4. Ranking by donors
5. Ranking by politicians
Example expert (2) and water harvesting (10) = WH 2*10 =20
stakeholder
IWRM
options
Weighting
average
Scale
for
weigh
ting
Expert/stakeholder
Politicians
Donor
Scale for weighting
experts
Key Water Policy measures towards socioeconomic issues in the
frame of water management
• At community level
• Policy reform to ensure more effective
targeting of poverty reduction
• Define measures and act on policy changes in
other sector that effect the potential of water
contribute to poverty reduction e.g. financial
mechanisms. Decentralization …etc.
Key Water Policy measures towards socioeconomic issues in the
frame of water management
At Institutional level
• Make sure that the policies formulated through participatory
approach and based on socioeconomic indicators
• Make the policies flexible , easy to cope with uncertainties
• Make sure that policy is known and transparent in order to
gain political well and acceptance
• Create policy ownership by involving all governmental bodies
and civil society organizations in the process of policy
formulation
Key Water Policy measures towards socioeconomic issues in the
frame of water management
At research level
• Enable the researcher to have accurate and reliable
water related data( some countries are hiding the
socioeconomic indicators)
• Integrate research output with discion making
process
• Enhance the dialogue between water experts and
decision makers
• Promote the concept of research oriented policies
will lead to improve socioeconomic situation