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on the link between global (climate) change research and policy making Frank Raes Climate Change Unit Institute for Environment and Sustainability Joint Research Centre European Commission JRC- Brussels- PF 28 June 2005, Brussels JRC Brussels Kyoto Protocol into force Kyoto Protocol UNFCCC JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels charles david keeling definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico PROTOCOLLO DI KYOTO socio economic drivers energy demand & supply fossil fuel use costc GHG emissions JRC- Brussels- PF no JRC Brussels emissions < - 8% cheapest controls ? yes cost effective climate change policy “economy” and climate change some numbers • economic damage of floods in 2002: ~17 billion € (EEA) • crop loss and forest fires in 2003: ~ 13 billion € (UNEP) • heat related casualties in 2003: ~ 35.000 (UNEP) (35 billion € …) • cost of implementing Kyoto Protocol in EU25: ~ 1 to 3.5 billion €/yr • cost for security measures at 2004 Olympic Games: ~ 1 billion € • money spent by Italians in Lotterie, etc in 2004: 23 billion € • net profit made by BP in 2004: 12 billion € • Tsunami solidarity funds promised by world: 3 - 5 billion € World can cope with (= adapt to) present effects of climate change! BUT: are there limits to adaptation to future climate change? Implementing the Kyoto JRC- Brussels- PFProtocol (= start mitigation) is feasible! BUT: how much mitigation is needed to stabilize climate at “safe” levels ? JRC Brussels definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico PROTOCOLLO DI KYOTO socio economic drivers energy demand & supply fossil fuel use costc GHG emissions JRC- Brussels- PF no JRC Brussels emissions < - 8% cheapest controls ? yes cost effective climate change policy definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico post KYOTO socio economic drivers energy demand & supply fossil fuel use costc GHG emissions JRC- Brussels- PF no avoid dangerous yes climate change ? JRC Brussels cost effective climate change policy definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico post KYOTO socio economic drivers energy demand & supply fossil fuel use costc GHG emissions JRC- Brussels- PF no JRC Brussels EU 2 C target yes cost effective climate change policy JRC- Brussels- PF IPCC TAR JRC Brussels JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels CO2 emission reductions needed to achieve EU 2 ºC objective current technologies that reduce each 25 GtC over next 50 yrs -efficient cars -reduced car use -efficient buildings -coal to methane switch -coal + CO2 capture and storage -nuclear energy -wind energy -photo-voltaic -bio-fuels -reduced deforestation, reforestation -conservation tillage A2 18 CO2 Emissions (GtC) 16 14 12 10 200 GtC 8 B1 6 4 2 JRC- Brussels- PF 2000 JRC Brussels Pacala & Socolow, Science 305, 2004 stabilization at 450 CO2 equivalent ~50 % probability to achieve 2 ºC 2050 2100 Malte Meinshausen, ETH, Zurich definizione di una politica integrata no effects < thresholds ? cheapest controls ? socio economic drivers fossil fuel use energy demand & supply costc end-of-pipe control technology levels & effects of conventional Air Pollution cost saving GHG emissions JRC- Brussels- PF no JRC Brussels emissions < - 8% cheapest controls ? yes integrated cost effective policy yes definizione di una politica integrata no effects < thresholds ? cheapest controls ? socio economic drivers fossil fuel use energy demand & supply costc end-of-pipe control technology levels & effects of conventional Air Pollution cost saving GHG emissions JRC- Brussels- PF no avoid dangereous yes climate change ? JRC Brussels integrated cost effective policy yes definizione di una politica per combattere l’inquinamento atmosferico e.g.: National Emission Ceilings Directive no effects < thresholds ? cheapest controls ? fossil fuel use end-of-pipe control technology levels & effects of conventional Air Pollution costA JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels cost effective air pollution policy yes definizione di una politica integrata no effects < thresholds ? cheapest controls ? socio economic drivers fossil fuel use energy demand & supply costc end-of-pipe control technology levels & effects of conventional Air Pollution cost saving GHG emissions JRC- Brussels- PF no JRC Brussels emissions < - 8% cheapest controls ? yes integrated cost effective policy yes COMPARTIMENTALIZATION IN ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY RESEARCH Anno 2001 local scales regional scales EUROTRAC top-down EC DG RTD projects fundamental research IGAC research EUROTRAC JRC- Brussels- PF EC DG RTD projects EUROTRAC JRC Brussels IGAC global scales IGAC bottom up EUROTRAC IGAC applied research WGE’s EMEP policy making EC DG ENV CLTRAP FCCC ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY RESEARCH Anno 2005 the overall goals of ACCENT are: • to promote a common European strategy for integrated research local to global scales atmospheric change / economic drivers • to develop durable means of communication and collaboration JRC- BrusselsPF between a broad research community • to optimize the interactions with policy-makers and the public JRC Brussels JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels 1995 1990 1985 1980 2000 1975 JRC Brussels integrated assessment scientific integration scientific research JRC- Brussels- PF public awareness politics policy making Linking Science and Policy 2005 1995 1990 1985 1980 2000 1975 JRC Brussels integrated assessment scientific integration scientific research JRC- Brussels- PF public awareness politics policy making Linking Science and Policy 2005 Climate Change Science and Policy IGBP SBSTA COP JRC- Brussels- PF public awareness 1980 IPCC Marrakech politics 1985 IPCC policy making 1990 scientific integration 1995 scientific research 2000 integrated assessment IPCC 2005 Kyoto FCCC ozone hole US heat wave acid rain 1975 JRC Brussels CO2 record Mauna Loa GLOBAL CHANGE priority THE AMSTERDAM DECLARATION July 2001 WCRP IGBP IHDP DIVERSITAS The busines-as-usual way of dealing with the Earth is unsustainable and has to be replaced by deliberate strategies of good management = POLICY ! A new system of global environmental science is required which must integrate across disciplines, environment and development issues, and the natural and social sciences = INTERACTION between SCIENCE and POLICY ! JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels
