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Transcript
GROWING A BETTER FUTURE
FOOD JUSTICE IN A RESOURCE CONSTRAINED WORLD
Tenth RRI Dialogue on Forests, Governance and Climate change:
Common approaches to dealing with the challenges of food
security and climate change
Tom van der Lee
HUNGER IS ON THE RISE AGAIN
• After decades of grindingly slow
progress in the fight to eradicate
hunger, it has begun to rise again.
Dramatically.
• Had the trend continued, 413
million fewer people would be
hungry today.
• Hunger is a bellwether for a
deeper malaise driving shocks
and fragility:
• Depletion of resource base
• Gathering climate change
• Dysfunctional markets
• Dysfunctional finance
• Capture of policymaking
• Looming energy crisis
A VISION FOR THE FUTURE
4 CHALLENGES
1. Increased demand
1. Scramble for resources
1. Climate change
1. Price volatility
ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINTS OF FOOD
RESOURCES ARE RUNNING OUT
• Arable land per
capita has almost
halved since 1960
• Demand for water
is set to increase
30% by 2030 –
placing agriculture
on a collision
course with
industry
LANDGRABBING
• The 2008 food price crisis
kicked-off the new scramble
for land
• But it has continued
unabated – 2009 saw 22
years worth of investment in
SSA in 12 months
• But drivers are complex:
• Supply side
• Genuine development
• Security of supply
• Financial bet on land
• Estimates suggest 80% of
investments remain
undeveloped
CLIMATE CHANGE
1. Climate change poses a threat to
production
1. A brake on yield growth – subSaharan Africa could experience
declines in yield of 17-30 per cent
by 2080
2. More extreme weather events
3. Farmers dealing with creeping
climate change in seasons
1. Farming threatens the climate
1. Agriculture accounts for 17-31 per
cent of greenhouse gases.
2. Biggest driver: land use change
In Indonesia,
every minute
palm oil
plantations eat
one more
hectare
rainforest
RISING FOOD PRICES
TOWARDS A NEW PROSPERITY
1. A new agricultural future
2. A new ecological future
3. Improved national and global governance
SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE:
THE OPPORTUNITY
•
Hunger, vulnerability, poverty are concentrated in rural areas
•
Low smallholder yields are a function of low resource use, not
inefficiency
•
So investing to increase access to resources will increase production
and close the yield gap
•
But it will also build resilience and increase equity
INTERNATIONAL REFORM
1. Stop land grabbing
2. End biofuels support
3. Regulate speculation
4. Build food reserves
5. Expand social protection
6. Stop trade-distorting agricultural subsidies
GROWING A BETTER FUTURE
FOOD JUSTICE IN A RESOURCE CONSTRAINED WORLD
Tenth RRI Dialogue on Forests, Governance and Climate change:
Common approaches to dealing with the challenges of food
security and climate change
Tom van der Lee