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RegIS2: Regional Climate Change Impact & Response Studies Dr Ian Holman Institute of Water and Environment Cranfield University Silsoe Bedford Project duration- 1st September 2003 to 31st August 2005 http://www.silsoe.cranfield.ac.uk/iwe/projects/regis/regis2.htm Overview Introduction to RegIS1 Recommendations for future IA’s RegIS2- rationale and framework RegIS2 Interface tool Conclusions RegIS- from sectoral assessment….. Most studies: Climate change Sector Impact (effect) ?? …to Integrated Assessment? BIODIVERSITY AGRICULTURE Ecosystems, species Yields, profitability & habitats & land use MODELS & INTERACTIONS WATER quantity, quality & flooding SCENARIOS Climate and socio-economic change COASTAL ZONE Sea level rise, flooding & erosion GIS DATABASE Model inputs & outputs, landscape characteristics STAKEHOLDERS INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT RegIS: Regional Climate Change Impact & Response Studies 1st integrated assessment of climate change in UK Considered socio-economic and climate change 4 sectors- coasts, agriculture, water & biodiversity Interactions between sectors through linked models Two contrasting regions- North West & East Anglia 5 km x 5 km http://www.silsoe.cranfield.ac.uk/iwe/projects/regis/ The RegIS Study Area • Contrasting climate, landuse, landscape Example results from RegIS1 Flooding Scenarios Agriculture Recharge + run-off Hydrology & groundwater resources Biodiversity RegIS1 • Long model run times • No hard linkages- data ‘pass the parcel’ • >1Gb of model output per run • Questions identified by RegIS team • Model application by RegIS team • But still successful! Recommendations following RegIS Included (fully or partially) in RegIS2 Extreme weather events More sectors Uncertainty analysis Closer integration of user needs Twin-track modelling approach Not included in RegIS2 National SE scenarios “Integrated scenarios” of change Continuous responses to changing circumstances Risk-based Rationale behind RegIS2 RegIS1 • Long model run times • No hard linkages- data ‘pass the parcel’ • >1Gb of model output per run • Questions identified by RegIS team • Model application by RegIS team • But still successful! RegIS2 • Faster model run times • All models linked within an interface • Limited targeted model output • Questions identified by stakeholders • Model application by the stakeholders •……. Key project objectives 1. To refine the RegIS risk assessment methodology into a form usable by Stakeholders; 2. To develop regional scenarios; 3. To identify, with stakeholders, critical impacts, interactions, adaptive responses, and interface design; 4. To develop a user friendly software tool, containing …scenarios,…the metamodels and the input data needed for Stakeholders to analyse impacts, interactions and adaptive responses. Methodological Framework Based on the DPSIR methodology: Drivers-Pressure-State-Impacts-Response Developed for planning sustainable development Used successfully within the RegIS Allows facilitate explicit investigation of the interactions between: the driving forces of environmental and climate change (drivers-pressure); the sensitivity of impact indicators (stateimpacts) and; stakeholder adaptive strategies (responses). DPSIR within RegIS2 Drivers: the underlying exogenous causes of change, e.g. climate/socio-economic change, national policy. qualitative, narrative storylines, e.g. SRES Pressure: the variables that quantify drivers e.g. regional population, precipitation, etc. regional, quantitative scenarios. State: variables that represent the sensitivity of the system to the pressure variables, e.g. river flows etc meta-models to derive state variables Impact: a measure of whether the changes in the state variables have a negative or positive effect derive impact indicators and translate these into impact classes reflecting value judgements. Response: planned (societal level) adaptation that acts on the socio-economic pressure variables use REGIS2 interface REGIS2 IAM (based on DPSIR) Drivers (storylines) Pressures (scenarios) Autonomous adaptation (feedbacks) State (metamodels) Impact (indicators) Response (user options) Planned adaptation Simplified representation of RegIS2 DRIVERS PRESSURES Climate scenarios Climate variables Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses Urban development patterns STATE / IMPACT High river flows Coastal model Fluvial flood model Flooding Sensitivity, uncertainty and adaptive responses analyses SES scenarios SE variables Rural land use Water resources Water demand Water Availability Biodiversity RESPONSES RegIS2 Interface The intention: User friendly intuitive Robust Fast run times Allow investigation of adaptive responses, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis The reality………. Interface v2.0 Drivers State / Impact Pressures/ Responses Example results Example results Conclusions • RegIS represented a significant step in local IA • RegIS2 will not do everything! • RegIS2 will build upon, and improve, on RegIS • The RegIS2 tool will (hopefully) be used to explore our uncertain (climate and socioeconomic) futures RegIS2: Regional Climate Change Impact & Response Studies Dr Ian Holman Institute of Water and Environment Cranfield University Silsoe Bedford http://www.silsoe.cranfield.ac.uk/iwe/projects/regis/regis2.htm