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Something about climate models Philip Mote JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group (home of Academy award winner Ed Miles) Outline Very brief primer: Global climate change Climate models Socioeconomic scenarios Projections for the Northwest Carbon dioxide: up 32% Global average temperature 0.8 degrees Celsius 0.4 0 -0.4 -0.8 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 The earth is warming -- abruptly A whole bunch of climate models Fluid on a sphere - spherical basis functions 1 BMRC 2 CCC 3 CCSR 4 CSIRO 5 ECHAM3 6 ECHAM4 7 GFDL 8 HadCM2 9 IAP 10 MRI 11 CERFACS 12 PCM 13 GISS 14 HadCM3 15 LMD 16 CSM Natural Climate Influence Human Climate Influence All Climate Influences Outline Very brief primer: Global climate change Climate models Socioeconomic scenarios Projections for the Northwest IPCC scenarios: radiative forcing (CO2 only) 3.5 W/m2 3 A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2000 2020 2040 IPCC scenarios: radiative forcing (GHGs + aerosols) 4 3.5 W/m2 3 A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2000 2020 2040 21st century temperature change IPCC (www.ipcc.ch) Temperature change, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990 Northwest warming 13 warmest scenario average coolest scenario observed 12 10 9 8 20 40 s 20 20 s 20 00 s 19 80 s 19 60 s 19 40 s 19 20 s 7 19 00 s Degrees C 11 A range of climate change scenarios low mean high temperature Apr-Sep Oct-Mar 1.5C 1.1C 2.1C 2.0C 3.3C 3.7C precipitation Apr-Sep Oct-Mar -4% 0% +4% +8% +9% +22% Estimated climate change from 20th c. to 2040s using 8 climate model scenarios. Conclusions Climate models are useful for large-scale future climate changes, with proper caveats Projections for the Northwest: 0.5°C/decade