Download Impacts of Climate Change on the Northwest

Something about climate models
Philip Mote
JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group
(home of Academy award winner
Ed Miles)
Outline
Very brief primer: Global climate change
Climate models
Socioeconomic scenarios
Projections for the Northwest
Carbon dioxide: up 32%
Global average temperature
0.8
degrees Celsius
0.4
0
-0.4
-0.8
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
The earth is warming -- abruptly
A whole bunch of climate models
Fluid on a sphere - spherical basis functions
1 BMRC
2 CCC
3 CCSR
4 CSIRO
5 ECHAM3
6 ECHAM4
7 GFDL
8 HadCM2
9 IAP
10 MRI
11 CERFACS
12 PCM
13 GISS
14 HadCM3
15 LMD
16 CSM
Natural Climate Influence
Human Climate Influence
All Climate Influences
Outline
Very brief primer: Global climate change
Climate models
Socioeconomic scenarios
Projections for the Northwest
IPCC scenarios: radiative forcing (CO2 only)
3.5
W/m2
3
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2000
2020
2040
IPCC scenarios: radiative forcing (GHGs + aerosols)
4
3.5
W/m2
3
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2000
2020
2040
21st century temperature change
IPCC (www.ipcc.ch)
Temperature change, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990
Northwest warming
13
warmest scenario
average
coolest scenario
observed
12
10
9
8
20
40
s
20
20
s
20
00
s
19
80
s
19
60
s
19
40
s
19
20
s
7
19
00
s
Degrees C
11
A range of climate change scenarios
low
mean
high
temperature
Apr-Sep Oct-Mar
1.5C
1.1C
2.1C
2.0C
3.3C
3.7C
precipitation
Apr-Sep Oct-Mar
-4%
0%
+4%
+8%
+9%
+22%
Estimated climate change from 20th c. to 2040s using 8
climate model scenarios.
Conclusions
Climate models are useful for large-scale
future climate changes, with proper caveats
Projections for the Northwest: 0.5°C/decade