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Climate change and Water Management Policy options for the future Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 1 Climate change – dealing with uncertainties Temperature rise Sea level rise Precipitation patterns River discharges – averages and peak discharges Storm surges and hurricanes 2 Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 Climate Change and Water Management Risks with respect to water management Changes in flood risks: coastal and river areas Changes in water availability and drought risks Salinization of deltas Increased risks of urban flooding According to IPCC effects of climate change may be prominent in second half of 2100 (IPCC, 2008) 3 Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 Climate Change and Water Management Trend in weather-related disasters 1980-2009 Number of disasters 80 60 40 20 Losses (billion USD 2010) Number of victims (millions) 0 1980 4 Coastal and fluvial floods, flash floods Droughts and temperature extremes Tropical and extratropical cyclones, local storms 1985 1990 1995 Year 2000 2005 2010 - Data do not allow conclusions about relationship climate change and disasters - Corrected for population growth and economic growth there is a stabilization 500 drought India, 400 drought India flood China flood China 300 200 100 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year 2000 2005 2010 250 2010-2050 -Population growth by 1/3 up to 9 billion -Further economic growth Hurricane Katrina 200 Vulnerability increases Water demand increases 150 100 50 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year 2000 2005 2010 Source: Visser et al., in prep Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 Climate Change and Water Management World water resources Salt water Freshwater 1,05 billion km3 97,5% 35 million km3 2,5% Available for use <1 % Source: UNEP; WWAP 5 Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 Climate Change and Water Management Uncertainties availability demand: tipping points water quantity Options: -Increase resource *water harvesting *de-salinization Resource variability - Increase resource efficiency *households *industries *agriculture water demand 2030 2050 time Result: - Reduced vulnerability - Buying time Freshwater use world wide Households 8% Industry 22% Agriculture 70% 20% of agricultural area => 40% of food production 80% agricultural area rainfed Irrigation increases crop production factor 2-5 Source: UNEP; WWAP Relevant drivers increasing pressure on water Population growth up to 9 billion people with 70% in cities Economic growth and increasing wealth Growth of food production (irrigation, nutrients, pesticides) Changes in diet: more meat increases water demands Globalisation and liberalisation => shift of food production from dry areas to wet areas Biomass production: water demand >> rice and wheat Climate change Water demand 2000-2050 increases Water Demand 6000 5000 km3 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 World 2000 2050-BL OECD 2000 irrigation 2050-BL domestic livestock BRIICS 2050-BL 2000 manufacturing RoW 2000 2050-BL electricity Source: PBL in OECD Population lacking access to improved watersupply 1000 900 in million persons 800 700 600 500 ROW 400 BRIICS 300 OECD 200 100 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 1990 2010 2030 2050 urban Urban rural Rural Source: PBL in OECD Population lacking access to improved sanitation 1000 2000 900 1800 in million persons 800 1600 700 1400 600 1200 500 1000 ROW 400 800 BRIICS 300 600 OECD 200 400 100 200 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 1990 2010 2030 2050 urban Urban rural Rural Source: PBL in OECD Diet change increases water demand water use/kg Cattle 15 m3 Sheeps/goats 10 m3 Poultry 6 m3 Rice 3 m3 Wheat 1,5 m3 Citrus 1 m3 Source: FAO Shift of food production increases water stress Europe food/biomass Brasil -> Mozambique biomass sugercane China, Korea, Japan -> Africa food, biomass Saoudi Arabia -> Ethiopia food Soedan Source: PBL in OECD; WUR Water embedded in complex interactions Food import Export - food - biomass national & foreign investors international networks Urban developments capital food …. Capital driven agriculture food migration capital land conversion Rural & Nature developments water land conversion labour emissions Water and foodsecurity not only a matter of water Role of water management Main drivers out of reach Water needs to be integrated in economic analyses - optimizing crop per drop (production/m3 , $$ /m3) - $$/m3 agriculture $$/m3 competing activities - $$ ecosystemservices -… Contribution to fair sharing: between nations, between people, between sectors (nature, ecosystems) Basis: analysis on scale of river basins! Integrated water basin management Interactions upstream/downstream + complex thematic interactions Land use Water use Wide variety of policy instruments - Information – behavioural changes - Standards waterquality * nutrients * other emissions - Water permits, water rights - Land use planning - Technology * improving resource eff. * de-salinisation - Cutting perverse subsidies - Introduce positive subsidies -….. Future challenges Strategic - Integration of water and climate in economical and political strategies - Powerfull economical analyses on river basin scale for informed decisions on water allocation and use (River Basin Committees National governments) - Water is cross-cutting issue: supra-sectoral approach required within context of water basins - Guiding principles: sustainable use and fair sharing Technology - Sharp improvement of resource efficiency especially in agriculture - De-salinization based on renewable and cheap energy - Water-harvesting techniques - ………… 20 Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 Climate Change and Water Management Enormous geographical differences No silver bullets – area-specific analyses and approaches needed Physical system What? 21 Economic system Political/societal system How? Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 Climate Change and Water Management 22 Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 Climate Change and Water Management