Download Adaptation in the Dutch delta

Climate change and
Water Management
Policy options for the future
Willem Ligtvoet, January 12
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Climate change – dealing with uncertainties
 Temperature rise
 Sea level rise
 Precipitation patterns
 River discharges – averages and peak discharges
 Storm surges and hurricanes
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Willem Ligtvoet, January 12
Climate Change and Water Management
Risks with respect to water management
 Changes in flood risks: coastal and river areas
 Changes in water availability and drought risks
 Salinization of deltas
 Increased risks of urban flooding
According to IPCC effects of climate change may be prominent in
second half of 2100 (IPCC, 2008)
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Willem Ligtvoet, January 12
Climate Change and Water Management
Trend in weather-related disasters 1980-2009
Number of disasters
80
60
40
20
Losses (billion USD 2010)
Number of victims (millions)
0
1980
4
Coastal and fluvial floods, flash floods
Droughts and temperature extremes
Tropical and extratropical cyclones, local storms
1985
1990
1995
Year
2000
2005
2010
- Data do not allow conclusions about
relationship climate change and
disasters
- Corrected for population growth and
economic growth there is a stabilization
500
drought India,
400
drought India
flood China
flood China
300
200
100
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
2000
2005
2010
250
2010-2050
-Population growth by 1/3 up to 9 billion
-Further economic growth
Hurricane Katrina
200
 Vulnerability increases
 Water demand increases
150
100
50
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
2000
2005
2010
Source: Visser et al., in prep
Willem Ligtvoet, January 12
Climate Change and Water Management
World water resources
 Salt water
 Freshwater
1,05 billion km3
97,5%
35 million km3
2,5%
Available for use
<1 %
Source: UNEP; WWAP
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Willem Ligtvoet, January 12
Climate Change and Water Management
Uncertainties availability  demand: tipping points
water quantity
Options:
-Increase resource
*water harvesting
*de-salinization
Resource variability
- Increase resource
efficiency
*households
*industries
*agriculture
water
demand
2030
2050
time
Result:
- Reduced vulnerability
- Buying time
Freshwater use world wide
 Households
8%
 Industry
22%
 Agriculture
70%
20% of agricultural area
=> 40% of food production
80% agricultural area rainfed
Irrigation increases crop production factor 2-5
Source: UNEP; WWAP
Relevant drivers increasing pressure on water
 Population growth up to 9 billion people with 70% in cities
 Economic growth and increasing wealth
 Growth of food production (irrigation, nutrients, pesticides)
 Changes in diet: more meat increases water demands
 Globalisation and liberalisation => shift of food production
from dry areas to wet areas
 Biomass production: water demand >> rice and wheat
 Climate change
Water demand 2000-2050 increases
Water Demand
6000
5000
km3
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
World
2000
2050-BL
OECD
2000
irrigation
2050-BL
domestic
livestock
BRIICS 2050-BL
2000
manufacturing
RoW
2000
2050-BL
electricity
Source: PBL in OECD
Population lacking access to improved watersupply
1000
900
in million persons
800
700
600
500
ROW
400
BRIICS
300
OECD
200
100
0
1990 2010 2030 2050 1990 2010 2030 2050
urban
Urban
rural
Rural
Source: PBL in OECD
Population lacking access to improved sanitation
1000
2000
900
1800
in million persons
800
1600
700
1400
600
1200
500
1000
ROW
400
800
BRIICS
300
600
OECD
200
400
100
200
0
1990 2010 2030 2050 1990 2010 2030 2050
urban
Urban
rural
Rural
Source: PBL in OECD
Diet change increases water demand
water use/kg
 Cattle
15
m3
 Sheeps/goats
10
m3
 Poultry
6
m3
 Rice
3
m3
 Wheat
1,5 m3
 Citrus
1
m3
Source: FAO
Shift of food production increases water stress
Europe
food/biomass
Brasil -> Mozambique
biomass sugercane
China, Korea, Japan -> Africa
food, biomass
Saoudi Arabia -> Ethiopia
food
Soedan
Source: PBL in OECD; WUR
Water embedded in complex interactions
Food import
Export
- food
- biomass
national &
foreign
investors
international
networks
Urban
developments
capital
food
….
Capital driven
agriculture
food
migration
capital
land conversion
Rural &
Nature
developments
water
land conversion
labour
emissions
Water and foodsecurity not only a
matter of water
Role of water management
 Main drivers out of reach
 Water needs to be integrated in economic analyses
- optimizing crop per drop (production/m3 , $$ /m3)
- $$/m3 agriculture  $$/m3 competing activities
- $$ ecosystemservices
-…
 Contribution to fair sharing: between nations, between
people, between sectors (nature, ecosystems)
 Basis: analysis on scale of river basins!
Integrated water basin management
Interactions upstream/downstream
+ complex thematic interactions
Land use
Water use
Wide variety of policy instruments
- Information – behavioural changes
- Standards waterquality
* nutrients
* other emissions
- Water permits, water rights
- Land use planning
- Technology
* improving resource eff.
* de-salinisation
- Cutting perverse subsidies
- Introduce positive subsidies
-…..
Future challenges
Strategic
- Integration of water and climate in economical and political
strategies
- Powerfull economical analyses on river basin scale for informed
decisions on water allocation and use
(River Basin Committees  National governments)
- Water is cross-cutting issue: supra-sectoral approach required within
context of water basins
- Guiding principles: sustainable use and fair sharing
Technology
- Sharp improvement of resource efficiency especially in agriculture
- De-salinization based on renewable and cheap energy
- Water-harvesting techniques
- …………
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Willem Ligtvoet, January 12
Climate Change and Water Management
Enormous geographical differences
No silver bullets – area-specific analyses and approaches needed
Physical system
What?
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Economic system
Political/societal system
How?
Willem Ligtvoet, January 12
Climate Change and Water Management
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Willem Ligtvoet, January 12
Climate Change and Water Management