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AIM Model Presentation
Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi
Yuzuru Matsuoka
Kyoto University, Japan
1. Brief introduction of the AIM
2. Projection of Global Warming
3. Mitigation of Global Warming
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002
1
AIM (Asian team)
Policymaking
Process
GCAM
（USA）
IMAGE
(Netherlands）
Integrated Assessment Model
meteorology
ecology
geophysics
pedology
geochemistry
Atmospheric
Chemistry
economics
policy sciences
paleoclimatology
hydraulics
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002
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The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model
• AIM is an abbreviation of Asia-Pacific Integrated
Model.
• It is one of Integrated Assessment Models (IAM),
and a large-scale computer simulation model
developed to promote the integrated assessment
process in the Asia-Pacific region
• Collaborated study by Japan, China, India , Korea,
Thailand and Malaysia members.
• The AIM project is started in July 1990, and began
an international collaboration system from 1994.
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002
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The AIM Approach
Population
model
IPCC
Economic model
Lifestyle
Energy
model
Land use model
AIM/Emission,
AIM/Material
GHG emissions
AIM/Trend
APEIS
Mitigation
of
Climate
Change
Technology
Japan team
India team
UNEP/GEO3
Eco-Asia
Atmospheric
chemistry
EMF19
National
government
private
companies
China team
Carbon cycle
apply
Ocean
uptake
Climatic change
AIM/Climate
Climate change
Adaptation
of
Climate
Change
Sea level
rise
Korea team
Thailand team
Malaysia team
Water resource
Ecosystem
model
development
Human
health
Agriculture
AIM/Ecosystem
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002
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AIM/Emission
Atmosphere
AIM/Emission
Socio-Econ. &
Emission Scenario
AIM
(Asian-Pacific
Integrated
Model)
Socio-Econ.
Factors
CCSR/NIES
CGCM
Land
Surface
Ocean
Land-use
AIM/Climate
Water
Resource
Crop
Productivity
Food Demand
And Supply
AIM/Ecosystem
Adaptation
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002
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AIM/Emission
Coupling of Top-down model and Bottom-up model
Socio-Economic Scenarios
Resource Base
Population
GDP
Lifestyle
AIM/emission
Regional / National Bottom-up Model
End Use
Energy
Efficiency
Social
Energy
Efficiency
Technology
Change
Exploitation
Technology
Resource
Base
GDP
Food
Consumption
Pattern
Industrial
Process
Change
Industrial
Production
Other
Inputs
GDP
Population
Population
Energy
Resource
Energy
Service
Deman
d
Social
Energy
Efficiency
Change
End Use
Technology
Change
End Use
Technology
Goods &
Service
Demand
Energy
Price
Final
Energy
Demand
Final
Energy
Supply
SO2,
NOx,
SPM
Emissio
n
Regional Air
Pollution
Model
Goods &
Service
Supply
Primary
Energy
Supply
Energy
Conversion
Technology
Efficiency
Biomass
Energy
Demand
Energy
Conversion
Technology
Goods and
Service Price
Land
Input
Cropland
Pasture
Forest
Biomass Farm
Global Energy-Economic Model
Other Land
GHGs
Emissions
Global Land
Equilibrium Model
AIM/climate Model
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002
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CO2 Emission Scenarios
A1FI (A1C)
A2
A1FI (A1G)
A1B
B2
A1T
B1
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002
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AIM/Climate
Atmosphere
AIM/Emission
Socio-Econ. &
Emission Scenario
AIM
(Asian-Pacific
Integrated
Model)
Socio-Econ.
Factors
CCSR/NIES
CGCM
Land
Surface
Ocean
Land-use
AIM/Climate
Water
Resource
Crop
Productivity
Food Demand
And Supply
AIM/Ecosystem
Adaptation
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002
8
AIM/Climate
AIM/emission
Natural change
Balance and Chemical model
of GHGs
Carbon cycle model
N2O model
CH4 model
CFCs model
Ocean model
convection and
transport of
aerosol, SO2 and
NOx
Climate model
Radiative forcing, Energy balance
Upwelling-Diffusion ocean model
Sea level rise model
Ice melt
Glaciers
Greenland
Antarctica
Thermal
expansion
Sea level rise
Global temperature change
Spatial interpolation with GCM
GCM,RegCM
experiments
Regional temperature change
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002
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A2 3.8±0.8
0.4
A1B 2.9±0.6
0.2
B2 2.7±0.6
1～ 1.5
1.5～ 2
2～ 2.5
2.5～ 3
3～ 3.5
3.5～ 4
4～ 4.5
4.5～ 5
5～ 5.5
5.5～ 6
0
A1T 2.5±0.6
B1 2.0±0.5
Geometric mean= 2.88 C
S.D. of logarithm= 0.346
← 50% 2.88C
A1FI 4.5±0.9
0.6
1
0.5
← 5% 1.63C
All 3.1±1.1
Fitted probability and frequency of occurence
Simulated 7 GCMs are GFDL R15a, CSIRO Mk2, HadCM3,
HadCM2, ECHAM4/OPYC, CSM 1.0 and DOE PCM
← 95% 5.1C
Temperature change between 1990 and 2100
0
1
2
3
4
5
Temperature change (C)
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002
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10
Climate change in Asian-Pacific countries
from 1990 to 2100, increase in DJF
Precipitation change
Temperature change
0.25
0.25
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0
China 3.9±1.4℃
> 7.0
6.0-6.5
Global 3.1±1.1℃
6.5-7.0
5.0-5.5
5.5-6.0
4.0-4.5
Japan 3.7±1.3℃
4.5-5.0
Japan 4.6±9.9%
< -30
-20～-15
-5～0
China 7.2±9.4%
<1.0
1.0-1.5
1.5-2.0
2.0-2.5
2.5-3.0
3.0-3.5
3.5-4.0
India 3.7±19.5%
10～15
25～30
India 3.1±1.1℃
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002
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AIM/Ecosystem
Atmosphere
AIM/Emission
Socio-Econ. &
Emission Scenario
AIM
(Asian-Pacific
Integrated
Model)
Socio-Econ.
Factors
CCSR/NIES
CGCM
Land
Surface
Ocean
Land-use
AIM/Climate
Water
Resource
Crop
Productivity
Food Demand
And Supply
AIM/Ecosystem
Adaptation
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002
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Wheat productivity change in some
countries from 1990 to 2100
With CO2 fertilization
Without CO2 fertilization
1
1
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0
Ca
na
0
～
50 50
0
～
40 0～ 4 30
3 0～
0
2 0～ 2 10
1 0～
0
～
0
-1 0 ～ -1
20
-2 0 0～ - -3 0
3
～
-4 0 0
0
-4
～
5
-5 0 0～ - -6 0
6
～
-7 0
0
-7
0～
0
-1
Ind
Ch
i na
Ja
pa
n
-6.
5
- 5.
ia
9±
-53
10
.6
da
. 2±
19
%
29
.7
.9%
±6
.9
%
～
50 50 0
～ 4
40 0～ 30 0
3 0～ 2 0
2 0～ 1 0
1 0～ ～
0
10
-1 ～ - -2 0
0
30
-2
0～ - -4 0
-3 0～
0
4
0～ ～ -5 6 0
-5
0
70
-6
0～ ～ -7
0
0
-1
Ca
na
Ind
Ch
i na
Ja
pa
n
24
.3±
4.4
33
ia
.2±
-34
12
da
. 3±
16
.5%
%
±1
. 5%
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002
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90
.6
.1%
±1
9
.8%
Costs and Benefits Atmospheric
Stabilization
Wheat productivity change in
India from 1990 to 2100, with
CO2 fertilization
GDP reduction relative
to SRES scenarios
4.1
3.6
550
p
450
p
SR
ES
pm
-
pm
pm
pm
-14
-20
-26
±7.
8%
±7.
0%
±6.
8%
±5.
8%
34±
16%
-29
1.2
0.9
0.3
0.6
0.4
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
A1
T
-7
0
-6 ～6
5
-6 ～- 5
6
0
-5 ～-5 0
5～ 5
-5
0 -5
-4 ～-4 0
5～ 5
-4
0 -4
-3 ～-3 0
5～ 5
-3
0 ～ -3 0
-2
5 ～ -25
-2
0 ～ -2 0
-1
5 ～ -15
-1
0 ～ 10
-5 ～ -5
0～ 0
5～ 5
10
650
p
1.9
0.9
B2
750
p
0.00
2.3
A1
B
0.10
2.3
A2
0.20
I
0.30
2.9 3.3
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
A1
F
0.40
0.0
450
550
650
750
ppm
ppm
ppm
ppm
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002
14
Some Representative results of AIM
calculation
•
Global temperature increases in 2100 are 3.1±1.1℃, lower
and upper 5 percentile temperatures are 1.6 and 5.1℃.
•
Climate change impacts are serious in some sectors and
countries.
India, wheat productivity, 34±16% and 53±20% decrease
w/wo CO2 fertilization.
•
Some impacts are recovered by these mitigations. In the
Indian case, the percentages of recovered are;
Target
450ppm 550ppm 650ppm 750ppm
concentration
% recovered
20%
14%
8%
5%
•
The costs of atmospheric
stabilization are
in GDP% loss
Reference
Scenario
450ppm target
550ppm target
650ppm target
750ppm target
B2
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0
A2
3.6
3.3
2.3
1.2
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment
October 25, 2002
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