Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
AIM Model Presentation Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi Yuzuru Matsuoka Kyoto University, Japan 1. Brief introduction of the AIM 2. Projection of Global Warming 3. Mitigation of Global Warming Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 1 AIM (Asian team) Policymaking Process GCAM (USA) IMAGE (Netherlands) Integrated Assessment Model meteorology ecology geophysics pedology geochemistry Atmospheric Chemistry economics policy sciences paleoclimatology hydraulics Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 2 The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model • AIM is an abbreviation of Asia-Pacific Integrated Model. • It is one of Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), and a large-scale computer simulation model developed to promote the integrated assessment process in the Asia-Pacific region • Collaborated study by Japan, China, India , Korea, Thailand and Malaysia members. • The AIM project is started in July 1990, and began an international collaboration system from 1994. Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 3 The AIM Approach Population model IPCC Economic model Lifestyle Energy model Land use model AIM/Emission, AIM/Material GHG emissions AIM/Trend APEIS Mitigation of Climate Change Technology Japan team India team UNEP/GEO3 Eco-Asia Atmospheric chemistry EMF19 National government private companies China team Carbon cycle apply Ocean uptake Climatic change AIM/Climate Climate change Adaptation of Climate Change Sea level rise Korea team Thailand team Malaysia team Water resource Ecosystem model development Human health Agriculture AIM/Ecosystem Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 4 AIM/Emission Atmosphere AIM/Emission Socio-Econ. & Emission Scenario AIM (Asian-Pacific Integrated Model) Socio-Econ. Factors CCSR/NIES CGCM Land Surface Ocean Land-use AIM/Climate Water Resource Crop Productivity Food Demand And Supply AIM/Ecosystem Adaptation Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 5 AIM/Emission Coupling of Top-down model and Bottom-up model Socio-Economic Scenarios Resource Base Population GDP Lifestyle AIM/emission Regional / National Bottom-up Model End Use Energy Efficiency Social Energy Efficiency Technology Change Exploitation Technology Resource Base GDP Food Consumption Pattern Industrial Process Change Industrial Production Other Inputs GDP Population Population Energy Resource Energy Service Deman d Social Energy Efficiency Change End Use Technology Change End Use Technology Goods & Service Demand Energy Price Final Energy Demand Final Energy Supply SO2, NOx, SPM Emissio n Regional Air Pollution Model Goods & Service Supply Primary Energy Supply Energy Conversion Technology Efficiency Biomass Energy Demand Energy Conversion Technology Goods and Service Price Land Input Cropland Pasture Forest Biomass Farm Global Energy-Economic Model Other Land GHGs Emissions Global Land Equilibrium Model AIM/climate Model Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 6 CO2 Emission Scenarios A1FI (A1C) A2 A1FI (A1G) A1B B2 A1T B1 Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 7 AIM/Climate Atmosphere AIM/Emission Socio-Econ. & Emission Scenario AIM (Asian-Pacific Integrated Model) Socio-Econ. Factors CCSR/NIES CGCM Land Surface Ocean Land-use AIM/Climate Water Resource Crop Productivity Food Demand And Supply AIM/Ecosystem Adaptation Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 8 AIM/Climate AIM/emission Natural change Balance and Chemical model of GHGs Carbon cycle model N2O model CH4 model CFCs model Ocean model convection and transport of aerosol, SO2 and NOx Climate model Radiative forcing, Energy balance Upwelling-Diffusion ocean model Sea level rise model Ice melt Glaciers Greenland Antarctica Thermal expansion Sea level rise Global temperature change Spatial interpolation with GCM GCM,RegCM experiments Regional temperature change Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 9 A2 3.8±0.8 0.4 A1B 2.9±0.6 0.2 B2 2.7±0.6 1~ 1.5 1.5~ 2 2~ 2.5 2.5~ 3 3~ 3.5 3.5~ 4 4~ 4.5 4.5~ 5 5~ 5.5 5.5~ 6 0 A1T 2.5±0.6 B1 2.0±0.5 Geometric mean= 2.88 C S.D. of logarithm= 0.346 ← 50% 2.88C A1FI 4.5±0.9 0.6 1 0.5 ← 5% 1.63C All 3.1±1.1 Fitted probability and frequency of occurence Simulated 7 GCMs are GFDL R15a, CSIRO Mk2, HadCM3, HadCM2, ECHAM4/OPYC, CSM 1.0 and DOE PCM ← 95% 5.1C Temperature change between 1990 and 2100 0 1 2 3 4 5 Temperature change (C) Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 6 10 Climate change in Asian-Pacific countries from 1990 to 2100, increase in DJF Precipitation change Temperature change 0.25 0.25 0.2 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 0 0 China 3.9±1.4℃ > 7.0 6.0-6.5 Global 3.1±1.1℃ 6.5-7.0 5.0-5.5 5.5-6.0 4.0-4.5 Japan 3.7±1.3℃ 4.5-5.0 Japan 4.6±9.9% < -30 -20~-15 -5~0 China 7.2±9.4% <1.0 1.0-1.5 1.5-2.0 2.0-2.5 2.5-3.0 3.0-3.5 3.5-4.0 India 3.7±19.5% 10~15 25~30 India 3.1±1.1℃ Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 11 AIM/Ecosystem Atmosphere AIM/Emission Socio-Econ. & Emission Scenario AIM (Asian-Pacific Integrated Model) Socio-Econ. Factors CCSR/NIES CGCM Land Surface Ocean Land-use AIM/Climate Water Resource Crop Productivity Food Demand And Supply AIM/Ecosystem Adaptation Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 12 Wheat productivity change in some countries from 1990 to 2100 With CO2 fertilization Without CO2 fertilization 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 Ca na 0 ~ 50 50 0 ~ 40 0~ 4 30 3 0~ 0 2 0~ 2 10 1 0~ 0 ~ 0 -1 0 ~ -1 20 -2 0 0~ - -3 0 3 ~ -4 0 0 0 -4 ~ 5 -5 0 0~ - -6 0 6 ~ -7 0 0 -7 0~ 0 -1 Ind Ch i na Ja pa n -6. 5 - 5. ia 9± -53 10 .6 da . 2± 19 % 29 .7 .9% ±6 .9 % ~ 50 50 0 ~ 4 40 0~ 30 0 3 0~ 2 0 2 0~ 1 0 1 0~ ~ 0 10 -1 ~ - -2 0 0 30 -2 0~ - -4 0 -3 0~ 0 4 0~ ~ -5 6 0 -5 0 70 -6 0~ ~ -7 0 0 -1 Ca na Ind Ch i na Ja pa n 24 .3± 4.4 33 ia .2± -34 12 da . 3± 16 .5% % ±1 . 5% Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 13 90 .6 .1% ±1 9 .8% Costs and Benefits Atmospheric Stabilization Wheat productivity change in India from 1990 to 2100, with CO2 fertilization GDP reduction relative to SRES scenarios 4.1 3.6 550 p 450 p SR ES pm - pm pm pm -14 -20 -26 ±7. 8% ±7. 0% ±6. 8% ±5. 8% 34± 16% -29 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 A1 T -7 0 -6 ~6 5 -6 ~- 5 6 0 -5 ~-5 0 5~ 5 -5 0 -5 -4 ~-4 0 5~ 5 -4 0 -4 -3 ~-3 0 5~ 5 -3 0 ~ -3 0 -2 5 ~ -25 -2 0 ~ -2 0 -1 5 ~ -15 -1 0 ~ 10 -5 ~ -5 0~ 0 5~ 5 10 650 p 1.9 0.9 B2 750 p 0.00 2.3 A1 B 0.10 2.3 A2 0.20 I 0.30 2.9 3.3 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 A1 F 0.40 0.0 450 550 650 750 ppm ppm ppm ppm Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 14 Some Representative results of AIM calculation • Global temperature increases in 2100 are 3.1±1.1℃, lower and upper 5 percentile temperatures are 1.6 and 5.1℃. • Climate change impacts are serious in some sectors and countries. India, wheat productivity, 34±16% and 53±20% decrease w/wo CO2 fertilization. • Some impacts are recovered by these mitigations. In the Indian case, the percentages of recovered are; Target 450ppm 550ppm 650ppm 750ppm concentration % recovered 20% 14% 8% 5% • The costs of atmospheric stabilization are in GDP% loss Reference Scenario 450ppm target 550ppm target 650ppm target 750ppm target B2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 A2 3.6 3.3 2.3 1.2 Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002 15