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Physical Limits of Computing Dr. Mike Frank Slides from a Course Taught at the University of Florida College of Engineering Department of Computer & Information Science & Engineering Spring 2000, Spring 2002, Fall 2003 Overview of First Lecture • Introduction: Moore’s Law vs. Known Physics • Mechanics of the course: – – – – – Course website Books / readings Topics & schedule Assignments & grading policies misc. other administrivia Physical Limits of Computing Introductory Lecture Moore’s Law vs. Known Physics Moore’s Law • Moore’s Law proper: – Trend of doubling of number of transistors per integrated circuit every 18 (later 24) months • First observed by Gordon Moore in 1965 (see readings) • “Generalized Moore’s Law” – Various trends of exponential improvement in many aspects of information processing technology (both computing & communication): • Storage capacity/cost, clock frequency, performance/cost, size/bit, cost/bit, energy/operation, bandwidth/cost … Law– - Transistors per Chip Moore’sMoore's Law Devices per IC 1,000,000,000 Madison Itanium 2 P4 P3 Intel µpu’s P2 486DX Pentium 386 286 8086 100,000,000 10,000,000 1,000,000 100,000 10,000 4004 1,000 Early 100 Fairchild ICs 10 1 1950 1960 1970 Avg. increase of 57%/year 1980 1990 2000 2010 Microprocessor Performance Trends Source: Hennessy & Patterson, Computer Architecture: A Quantitative Approach. Added Performance analysis based on data from the ITRS 1999 roadmap. Raw technology performance (gate ops/sec/chip): Up ~55%/year Super-Exponential Long-Term Trend Ops/second/ $1,000 Vacuum Tubes Integrated Circuits Mechanical Discrete Electromechanical Transistors Relays Source: Kurzweil ‘99 Known Physics: • The history of physics has been a story of: – Ever-increasing precision, unity, & explanatory power • Modern physics is very nearly perfect! – All accessible phenomena are exactly modeled, as far as we know, to the limits of experimental precision, ~11 decimal places today. • However, the story is not quite complete yet: – There is no experimentally validated theory unifying GR & QM (yet) String theory? M-theory? Loop quantum gravity? Other? Fundamental Physical Limits of Computing Thoroughly Confirmed Physical Theories Theory of Relativity Quantum Theory Implied Affected Quantities in Universal Facts Information Processing Speed-of-Light Limit Uncertainty Principle Definition of Energy Reversibility 2nd Law of Thermodynamics Adiabatic Theorem Gravity Communications Latency Information Capacity Information Bandwidth Memory Access Times Processing Rate Energy Loss per Operation ITRS Feature Size Projections 1000000 uP chan L DRAM 1/2 p 100000 min Tox Human hair thickness max Tox Eukaryotic cell Feature Size (nanometers) 10000 1000 Bacterium Virus 100 Protein molecule 10 DNA molecule thickness 1 Atom 0.1 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year of First Product Shipment We are here ITRS Feature Size Projections 1000 Bacterium uP chan L DRAM 1/2 p min Tox max Tox Feature Size (nanometers) 100 Virus Protein molecule 10 DNA molecule thickness 1 Atom 0.1 1995 2000 2005 We are here 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year of First Product Shipment 2035 2040 2045 2050 A Precise Definition of Nanoscale 10−4.5 m ≈ 31.6 µm Microscale: Characteristic length scale in Microcomputers 10−6 m = 1 µm 10−7.5 m ≈ 31.6 nm 10−9 m = 1 nm ~Atom size 10−10.5 m ≈ 31.6 pm 10−12 m = 1 pm Near nanoscale Far nanoscale Nanoscale: Characteristic length scale in Nanocomputers Picoscale: Characteristic length scale in Picocomputers (if possible) Min transistor switching energy, kTs Trend of minimum transistor switching energy (½CV2 gate energy calculated from ITRS ’99 geometry/voltage data) 1000000 High 100000 10000 Low 1000 trend 100 10 1 1995 2005 2015 2025 Year of First Product Shipment 2035 What is entropy? • First was characterized by Rudolph Clausius in 1850. – Originally was just defined as heat ÷ temperature. – Noted to never decrease in thermodynamic processes. – Significance and physical meaning were mysterious. • In ~1880’s, Ludwig Boltzmann proposed that entropy S is the logarithm of the number N of states, S = k ln N – What we would now call the information capacity of a system – Holds for systems at equilibrium, in maximum-entropy state • The modern consensus that emerged from 20th-century physics is that entropy is indeed the amount of unknown or incompressible information in a physical system. – Important contributions to this understanding were made by von Neumann, Shannon, Jaynes, and Zurek. Landauer’s 1961 Principle from basic quantum theory Before bit erasure: 0 s′0 1 1 s″N−1 0 s″N 0 2N distinct states … … s′N−1 Unitary (1-1) evolution 0 … … sN−1 … N distinct states s″0 0 … N distinct states s0 After bit erasure: s″2N−1 0 Increase in entropy: S = log 2 = k ln 2. Energy lost to heat: ST = kT ln 2 Bit-operations per US dollar Adiabatic Cost-Efficiency Benefits 1.00E+33 1.00E+32 1.00E+31 1.00E+30 Scenario: $1,000/3-years, 100-Watt conventional computer, vs. reversible computers w. same capacity. ~100,000× 1.00E+29 ~1,000× 1.00E+28 1.00E+27 1.00E+26 1.00E+25 All curves would →0 if leakage not reduced. 1.00E+24 1.00E+23 1.00E+22 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060