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FROM NATURAL HAZARDS TO DISASTERS AND DISASTER RESILIENCE A 3-Part Story That Can Take 40 Years or More Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA BASIC PHYSICS and EARTH SCIENCE of NATURAL HAZARDS TOWARDS A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF THE PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS THAT CAUSE NATURAL HAZARDS AROUND THE GLOBE PART I HAZARDS: NOT AN OPTION FOR CITIES EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY HAZARDS CITY DISASTER DISASTER RESILIENCE NATURAL HAZARDS ARE NOT AN OPTION FOR CITIES (PART I) DISASTERS, THE “DEFAULT OPTION” (PART II) AND TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR NOT; THAT IS THE QUESTION: (PART III) PLANET EARTH IS AFFECTED BY A CONTINUUM OF NATURAL HAZARDS EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS SEVERE WINDSTORMS VOLCANOES FLOODS WILDFIRES A DISASTER OCCURS WHEN THE CITY IS … UN—PREPARED UN—PROTECTED UN—ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY UN (NON)--RESILIENT BASIC EARTH SCIENCE • PLATE TECTONICS • FAULTS • WATER CYCLE • SOLAR HEAT • • • • • EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS VOLCANOES FLOODS SEVERE WINDSTORMS • WILDFIRES BASIC PHYSICS • STRESS • WAVES (P-, S-, (Compression, Love-, Rayleigh Tension, Shear) Waves; • DEFORMATION Tsunamis) (Faults, Folds) • FLOWS, BLASTS, AND • HEAT AND PRESSURE PLUMES FLOW PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS OCCUR ON MANY SCALES • • • • • • • Microscopic Site-specific to local Subsurface to atmospheric Regional Continental OCEANIC Global EARTHQUAKES: PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS ENCOMPASS THE LITHOSPHERE, CORE, MANTLE, ASTHENOSPHERE, (HYDROSPHERE) AND BIOSPHERE HEAT FLOWS FROM THE OUTER CORE TECTONIC PLATES 200 MILLION YEARS AFTER PANGEA NORTH AMERICA AND PACIFIC (JUAN DE FUCA) PLATES CONVERGING NORTH AMERICA AND PACIFIC PLATES SLIDING BY EACH OTHER San Andreas: A Plate Boundary WESTERN NORTH AMERICA’S NATURAL HAZARDS • • • • FLOODS EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • WILDFIRES • LANDSLIDES EASTERN NORTH AMERICA’S NATURAL HAZARDS • • • • • • FLOODS HURRICANES EARTHQUAKES TORNADOES ICE STORMS LANDSLIDES THE CARIBBEAN PLATE AND HAITI EARTHQUAKE PACIFIC RIM: SUBDUCTION OF CONVERGING PLATES MOST EARTHQUAKES OCCUR IN PACIFIC RIM CONVERGENCE ZONE INDIA-EURASIA: COLLISION OF CONVERGING PLATES PLATE CONVERGENCE: BANDA ACHE, INDONESIA AREA THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE FAULT RUPTURE DAMAGE/LOSS EARTHQUAKE GROUND SHAKING DAMAGE/LOSS TSUNAMI DAMAGE/ LOSS SUBSIDENCE DAMAGE/ LOSS FOUNDATION FAILURE DAMAGE/ LOSS SOIL AMPLIFICATION DAMAGE/ LOSS LIQUEFACTION DAMAGE/ LOSS LANDSLIDES DAMAGE/ LOSS AFTERSHOCKS DAMAGE/ LOSS SEICHE DAMAGE/ LOSS CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE FAULTING ) EARTHQUAKES IRREGULARITIES IN MASS, STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS CASE HISTORIES FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP AND SEICHE POOR DETAILING OF STRUCTURALSYSTEM FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS TSUNAMIS: PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS ENCOMPASS THE LITHOSPHERE, CORE, MANTLE, ASTHENOSPHERE, HYDROSPHERE, AND BIOSPHERE PHYSICS OF A TSUNAMI THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN TSUNAMI TSUNAMI HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) • HIGH-VELOCITY, LONG-PERIOD WATER WAVES • WAVE RUNUP • FLOODING • WAVE RETREAT • SHORELINE EROSION TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP TSUNAMIS CASE HISTORIES INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING NO WARNING, OR INADEQUATE WARNING PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI SEVERE WINDSTORMS HURRICANES/TYPHOONS: PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS OF THE SUN, HYDROSPHERE, ATMOSPHERE, LITHOSPHERE, AND BIOSPHERE HURRICANE PHYSICS PHYSICS OF A TYPHOON HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) • WIND FIELD (COUNTER CLOCKWISE OR CLOCKWISE DIRECTION; CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5 (155 mph or greater) • STORM SURGE • HEAVY PRECIPITATION • LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) • COSTAL EROSION • TORNADOES (SOMETIMES) CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS SEVERE WINDSTORMS CASE HISTORIES STORM SURGE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN POOR WORKMANSHIP FAILURE OF NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS RISK ASSESSMENT •SEVERE WINDSTORMS •INVENTORY •VULNERABILITY •LOCATION ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK REDUCTION DATA BASES AND INFORMATION Storm Hazards: Gradient Wind Wind profile Ocean COMMUNITY -Wind pressure -Surge -Rain -Flood -Waves -Salt water -Missiles -Tornadoes POLICY OPTIONS •PREPAREDNESS •PROTECTION •EMERGENCY RESPONSE •RECOVERY • EDUCATIONAL SURGES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS: PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS ENCOMPASS THE LITHOSPHERE, CORE, MANTLE, ATMOSPHERE, AND BIOSPHERE PHYSICS OF AN EXPLOSIVE VOLCANO ACTIVE VOLCANOES HAZARDS OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) • • • • • VERTICAL PLUME ASH AND TEPHRA LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC FLOWS LAhARS CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA) VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS CASE HISTORIES IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH (AVIATION) IN PATH OF LAVA AND PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF LAHARS IGNORING WARNING TO EVACUATE RISK ASSESSMENT •HAZARD MAPS •INVENTORY •VULNERABILITY •LOCATION ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK DISASTER RISK REDUCTION DATA BASES AND INFORMATION COMMUNITY POLICY OPTIONS HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS •PREVENTION-MITIGATION •PREPAREDNESS •EMERGENCY RESPONSE •RECOVERY •ADAPTATION FLOODS: PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS ENCOMPASS THE ATMOSPHERE, LITHOSPHERE, HYDROSPHERE, AND BIOSPHERE FLOOD HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) • TOO MUCH WATER DISCHARGED WITHIN THE DRAINAGE SYSTEM TO BE ACCOMMODATED NORMALLY IN THE REGIONAL WATER CYCLE • EROSION • SCOUR • MUDFLOWS CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS FLOODS CASE HISTORIES STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS) EROSION AND MUDFLOWS CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER WILDFIRES: PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS ENCOMPASS THE ATMOSPHERE, LITHOSPHERE, AND BIOSPHERE SCIENCE OF WILDFIRES WILDFIRES are conflagrations caused by lightning discharges (or acts of man) in wilderness areas close enough to an urban interface that they threaten people, property, infrastructure, and business enterprise. WILDFIRE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) • • • • FIRE HOT GASES AND SMOKE HOT SPOTS BURNED OUT SLOPES (with increased susceptibility to insect infestation, erosion, and landslides) WILDFIRE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) • SUNDOWNER WINDS • SANTA ANNA WINDS • LOCAL CHANGES IN AIR QUALITY • LOCAL CHANGES IN WEATHER CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER LIGHTNING STRIKES MANMADE FIRES PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA TO THE WILDLAND FIRE WILDFIRES DISASTER LABORATORIES WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION (DAY/NIGHT) DRYNESS HIGH TEMPERATURES LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY DISASTERS ARE THE CITY’S “DEFAULT OPTION” (SEE PART II) TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR NOT; THAT IS STILL THE QUESTION: (PART III)