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Niigata Earthquake, Japan, 1970 : When Soils Liquefied, Houses Tilted
Tectonic Setting
Hazards
Hawaii
Volcanic arcs and oceanic trenches partly encircling the Pacific Basin form the so-called Ring of
Fire, a zone of frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The trenches are shown in bluegreen. The volcanic island arcs, although not labelled, are parallel to, and always landward of, the
trenches. For example, the island arc associated with the Aleutian Trench is represented by the
No eruption anticipated.
GREEN:
YELLOW:
Volcano is in quiet, “dormant” state.
An eruption is possible in the next few
weeks and may occur with little or no
additional warning.
Small earthquakes detected locally and (or)
increased levels of volcanic gas emissions.
ORANGE:
Explosive eruption is possible within a
few days and may occur with little or no
warning. Ash plume(s) not expected to
reach 25,000 feet above sea level.
RED:
Major explosive eruption expected within
24 hours. Large ash plume(s) expected
to reach at least 25,000 feet above sea
level.
Increased numbers of local earthquakes.
Extrusion of a lava dome or lava flows (nonexplosive eruption) may be occurring.
Strong earthquake activity detected even at
distant monitoring stations. Explosive eruption
may be in progress.
Most of the world's great earthquakes and tsunamis initiate in the
zone of underthrusting or seismogenic zone of subduction zones.
Types of earthquakes
There are many different types of earthquakes: tectonic, volcanic, and
explosion. The type of earthquake depends on the region where it occurs
and the geological make-up of that region. The most common are
tectonic earthquakes. These occur when rocks in the earth's crust break
due to geological forces created by movement of tectonic plates. Another
type,volcanic earthquakes, occur in conjunction with volcanic activity.
Collapse earthquakes are small earthquakes in underground caverns
and mines, and explosion earthquakes result from the explosion of
nuclear and chemical devices. We can measure motion from large
tectonic earthquakes using GPS because rocks on either side of a fault
are offset during this type of earthquake.
Reef
Earthquakes and Human Environment
The threat posed to people and property in a given location is based on
1. distance from the earthquake epicenter and
2. stability of the soil in the area. Although the soil conditions in
Earthquake Hazards
Shaking
Liquefaction
Faulting,
Land Subsidence
Landslides
Tsunami
Volcani Hazards
Lava flows, lava floods
Shaking
Lahars
Land Subsidence
Landslides
Tsunami
What is Risk ?
• the Potential for incurring Future
Losses, Near future, Distant future
(Note Element of Uncertainty)
• the Probability (chance per unit time)
to incur a Loss of some Magnitude
• A Rational Concept beyond “Acts of
God”
Geologic Hazards have long time span
Effects of Natural Disasters: The Human Impact
Immediate & Personal Effects:
Death, Injuries, Health Threat
Loss of Possessions, Shelter, Food, Water, Heat
Disrupted Families, Missing Persons,
Shock, Grief, Trauma
Public Effects / Disruptions
Rule by Emergency Law (may restrict Individuals’ Rights ,
Curfews)
Public Needs override Individual/Private Needs
Strict Enforcement of Law and Order (Looting)
Threat to Public Health, Environment and
Effects of Natural Disasters: The Human Impact
Ecology
Loss of Government Services
Failure of Infrastructures / Utility Services (e.g.
Transportation, ….)
Private Sector / Economic Repercussions
Loss of Production and Service Facilities
Loss of Income
Environmental / Ecological / Agricultural Effects
Incurrence of Debt (Long-term)
Sometimes: Economic Boom , Massive Construction fed by
Relief Aid
Emergency response system is the first line facing a disaster.
Basic Principle of Diaster Risk Management and Mitigation Planning
Natural Disasters occur at the Intersection of People with Nature’s Extreme Events.
Risk = Sum (Hazard x Assets x Fragility).
Disaster / Emergency Preparedness Requires a strong Constitutional / Legal /
Institutional Basis. Political Will Power and Fiscal Resources. PEPPER: Pre-Event
Preparedness / Post Event Response. Mitigation especially requires Long-Range
Planning, Political Will Power, and Persevirence. Pressure of Short- vs. Longterm
Objectives.
Vulnerability: Difference between Risk and Societal Vulnerability. On a Global Scale,
Vulnerability is tied to Poverty & limited Access to Resources and Good Government.
But highly developed Metro Areas (e.g. NYC or Tokyo, and their Infrastructure) are
also exposed to Low-Probability / High-Consequence Risks, e.g. to Storm Surges / Sea
Level Rise, and Earthquakes.
Risk Management Constitutional, Legal & Organizational/Institutional Issues.
Mitigation is Tied to Development / Capacity Building/ Infrastructure. In Developing
Countries Development Banks have a Major Role to Play, but they often fail in this
task. Lesser role of NGOs & UN. On a Global Scale, there is great Uncertainty about
the Human Ability to Harness the Global Risks from “Natural” Disasters, given the
Global Population / Demographic / Economic Trends.
Earthquake survivors in Bam, Iran continue to suffer psychological
trauma from their ordeal in December 2003, with health officials noting
that rehabilitation may take quite some time. The earthquake hit the
southeastern Iranian city in the province of Kerman, on 26 December,
killing at least 40,000 people and leaving more than 100,000 homeless .
Hingrai earthquake: At least 24,000people were affected when two
earthquakes, measuring 5.7 and 5.5 on the Richter scale, hit Pakistan on
February 14, 2003.
Another house, with its walls threatening to collapse, shored up by
wooden planks, Hingrai, Balakot, NWFP, Pakistan.
Risk management aims to reduce risk through manipulation of the risk
equation. Mitigation takes place before the event by updating building
codes, halting construction in hazardous areas, retrofitting existing
building stock, enacting and enforcing building codes for new properties,
and relocation of residents to less hazardous areas. Response to a disaster
is made effective if emergency facilities are accessible and functional
and the public is aware and educated. Rebuilding after an event should
expand upon these principles
Development Agencies and Private Sector Financial Institutions Play an Important Role:
(from a manual issued by the Inter-American Development Bank)
(source: IDB)
ICS: Incident Command System is the model tool for:
command,
control,
coordination
of a disaster / incident response. It provides the means to
coordinate the efforts of individual agencies (local, state, federal)
with specialized capabilities as they work toward the common goal
of stabilizing the incident and protecting life, property, and the
environment. During major emergencies it is common that no
single agency or department can handle the emergency situation
alone. All agencies must work together to manage it.
To coordinate the effective use of all available resources, agencies
need a formalized management structure that lends consistency,
fosters efficiency, and provides direction during a response.
Standard fare in geology textbooks and school classrooms across the world is that the hot springs,
geysers and volcanoes of Yellowstone National Park, Hawaii, Iceland, and many other volcanic
regions were “created” by plumes of hot rock that rise from near the Earth’s core. New results
from recently published U.S. Geological Survey research hint, astonishingly, that such plumes
may not exist at all."
Results from seismic tomography, a method that uses earthquake waves to “CAT scan” the
Earth’s secretive goings-on, suggest that the magma system beneath Yellowstone is only skin
deep – shallower than 120 miles, far less than the 1,750 miles scientists would expect if the
magma arose from near the Earth’s molten core as has been thought for decades. Similar trails
elsewhere also have been attributed to mantle plumes. In particular, noted Christiansen, the
spectacular chain of volcanic islands that stretches from the Big Island of Hawaii, northwest
along the Hawaiian island chain, is commonly considered compelling evidence for a plume and is
the “textbook” example of how mantle plumes “work” to create volcanic islands and other
geologic features above the Earth’s surface.
“If Yellowstone can leave a volcano trail without a plume, then other hotspots might also,”
Christiansen said. “The implication is that Hawaii may not be underlain by a plume after all. A
group of U.S. universities is conducting a major seismic experiment there in the fall of 2003 that
may settle the question for once and all.”
_ekil 6.4
Bkz. 6.3.2.5 (a)
Bkz. 6.3.2.5 (b)
Load Paths Should be Continuous.
Discontinuities and Asymmetries
Should be Avoided
What are Quantifiable Elements of Risk ?
• Hazard: Distribution of (Natural) Events in Time, Space, and
by Magnitude. Examples: Expected Flood Height reached
along a River During Different Exposure Times (100-year or
500-year Flood). Expected Shaking Level Reached at a given
Site due to Earthquakes (e.g. • US Seismic Hazard Maps).
• Assets : Lives, Possessions, Means of Production, Built
Structures and Infrastructures; Social Structures; Cultural
Values. Some Assets are measurable in $$$, others are not.
• Fragility : A measure of fractional loss of the valued asset,
given the hazard. Typically a number between 0 and 1. Zero
means total loss for the given hazard level, 1 means there was
no damage at all.
------ So what is Vulnerability? A less readily quantifiable, more
complex, and socially more comprehensive term than any of
the above terms can express, individually or in any
combination. It describes the social conditioning that allows
extreme natural events to become disasters.
How can a Community Manage Risk
Risk = SUM (Hazard x Asset x Fragility)
1. One can try to minimize Risk, i.e. minimize the
Sum over the products of these three factors.
Options are:
• reduce the hazard by engineering (e.g. dykes,
levees) (Note: dangerous when ultimate event
strikes)
• do not locate fragile, expensive assets on
hazardous sites; i.e. leave hazardous sites less
developed (land use planning and zoning)
•
reduce fragility by building hazard-resilient
structures - (construction codes and their
enforcement)
Risk Management:
Reduce Risk Exposure:
Risk = ∑ (Hazard x Assets x Fragility)
• Avoid Placing high Assets into the most Hazardous Zones.
• Urban Planning, Landuse, Zoning, Regulations & Codes.
• Evaluate Hazard at the Appropriate Probability Level.
• Tails of Probability Distributions -> Extreme Catastrophes.
• Reduce Fragility, Increase Toughness & Redundancy,
Retrofit.
Emergency Response Planning & Preparedness: Minimize
Post-Event Losses,
Post-Event Recovery / Reconstruction: Opportunity for
including Mitigation.
Risk Distribution:Insurance, Assistance & Mutual Support
Networks; National/International Public/Private Aid
2. By distributing (catastrophic) Risk to
others via insurance or other financial or
bartering arrangements.
• Simplest Form of RISK Definition in Engineering:
•
Risk = Sum ( Hazard x Assets x Fragility)
• Hazard: For a Point on Earth: Hazard Curve: Annual
Exceedance Probability vs. Hazard Variable; e.g. for
Earthquakes: Peak Ground Acceleration - PGA (%g) used
by Engineers in Context of Building Code, Design of
Nukes etc..
At Given Annual Exceedance Probability:
1. PGA Can be Mapped.
2. Can Be Deaggregated
• Assets: Lives, Built Assets, Cultural Assets ($$$)
• Fragility: Variable from 0 (no loss) to 1 (total loss) for each
type of structure and for each hazard value; often poorly
known.
Risk ($):
Risk Curves, Annualized Losses, Probable
Risk Management:
Reduce Risk Exposure:
Risk = ∑ (Hazard x Assets x Fragility)
• Avoid Placing high Assets into the most Hazardous Zones.
• Urban Planning, Landuse, Zoning, Regulations & Codes.
• Evaluate Hazard at the Appropriate Probability Level.
• Tails of Probability Distributions -> Extreme Catastrophes.
• Reduce Fragility, Increase Toughness & Redundancy,
Retrofit.
Emergency Response Planning & Preparedness: Minimize
Post-Event Losses,
Post-Event Recovery / Reconstruction: Opportunity for
including Mitigation.
Risk Distribution:Insurance, Assistance & Mutual Support
Networks; National/International Public/Private Aid
GENERALIZED CONCLUSIONS FOR GLOBAL
MEGACITIES:
1. Urbanization Increases Risk on a Global Scale.
2. Hazard is probabilistically quantifiable on a global scale with
current data. Microzonation of hazard requires detailed local
geotechnical data for equ., and topography for storm surges.
3. Risk/Loss Modeling is well developed but needs full inventory
of built assets and their fragilities. Ok for NY, but on a
global scale, population and per capita income may have to
suffice initially as a proxy for full asset inventory.
4. Vulnerability is a complex quantity, strongly tied to lack of
redundancy; in developing countries tied to poverty, incomeinequities, and the exclusion of large sectors of civil society
from the political process. Hard to quantify even just for a
single hazard. While there may be common causes for
vulnerability to different hazards, vulnerability has hazardspecific aspects.
5. Risk Management: Pre-Event Preparedness & Mitigation are
as important as Post-Event Recovery. Remaining Risk can be
Distributed via Insurance. RM Requires strong Institutions and
Resources not readily available in developing countries. This is
a major development issue of global scale.
Constitutional - Legal & Political Framework
of Disaster / Emergency Management (EM)
Different Nations have Different Systems. Generally
they reflect the Political System of the Country.
• Pluralistic Representative Democracies (checks & balances):
Civil Organizations Tend to Dominate. EM Professionals.
EM can be either Centralized - or Federalized.
Legal Framework for Cooperation between Federal, State
and Local Organizations. Bottom Up?
• Semi-Democracies, Oligarchies & Dictatorships:
Military Organizations Tend to Dominate. Patronage Jobs.
EM Typically Centralized, or Weak to Non-Existent (ad hoc).
Legal Framework from Strong to Murky. Top down.
Note: Over-simplifications, Exceptions & Shades of Grey abound !!
Constitutional, Legal & Organizational Issues
In the US: Public Safety is Primarily State Responsibility.
Principle of Local over External Responsibility: Securing of
Progressively Outward Radiating Assistance if Needed.
Emergency Management Offices (EMO’s) exist at different Levels:
Towns, Counties, State. Federal Role in Disaster Response is
Regulated by Stafford Act: www.fema.gov/library/stafact.htm.
The Stafford Act regulates the following Basic Federal Functions:
1. US Disaster Preparedness Assistance to States
2. Major Disaster & Emergency Assistance Administration
3. Major Disaster Assistance Programs
4. Emergency Assistance Programs
5. Emergency Preparedness
6. Miscellaneaous (Islands , …..).
A State Governor must ask the US President to declare a
Federal Disaster before feds via FEMA can get into picture.
President / FEMA can call upon all other federal agencies to pitch in
for pre-designated or special tasks: National Guard (dual state &
federal role), US Army Corps of Engineers, CDC, EPA, …...
Contin. US - ICS: Organizational Participation during an Incident
Typical Roster of Organizations (in the US):
During Major
Emergencies their Representatives Assemble at an Incident
Command Post (ICP), while their Operational Teams work in the
Field (use examples from 9/11 WTC “ground zero” operations):
• EMO’s (e.g. Mayor’s EMO, NYSEMO, FEMA, … ); 9/11: NYC OEM lost its
ICP
• Police, Fire, Ambulance Services, EPA/DEPs,
• Health Services (CDC, State, Local, Private, Red Cross)
• Utilities : Electric, Gas, Water, Sewer, Sanit., Communication
• Transportation : DoTs, HWD, Commuter Serv., MTA’s, Airprts., FAA
• Knowledge and Information Agencies : NOAA, NWS, USGS, …..
• Social Services & NGO’s: American Red Cross (Congr. Mandate), Schools,
Religious Organiz., Salvation Army, Mennonite……, Caritas, …
• Media : Radio, TV, Cable, Printed Media - in separate briefing room
• Technical Organiz.: DDC, Army Corps of Engineers, DOE, EPA,
Forest Service (Forest Fire Fighters, ……. )
• Public Safety: Police, FBI, Coast Guard, …..
• Powers of Last Resort: National Guard, Armed Forces,
• in the US: Help from outside the US ????
Contin. US - ICS: Organizational Participation during an Incident
Typical Roster of Organizations (in the US):
During Major
Emergencies their Representatives Assemble at an Incident
Command Post (ICP), while their Operational Teams work in the
Field (use examples from 9/11 WTC “ground zero” operations):
• EMO’s (e.g. Mayor’s EMO, NYSEMO, FEMA, … ); 9/11: NYC OEM lost its
ICP
• Police, Fire, Ambulance Services, EPA/DEPs,
• Health Services (CDC, State, Local, Private, Red Cross)
• Utilities : Electric, Gas, Water, Sewer, Sanit., Communication
• Transportation : DoTs, HWD, Commuter Serv., MTA’s, Airprts., FAA
• Knowledge and Information Agencies : NOAA, NWS, USGS, …..
• Social Services & NGO’s: American Red Cross (Congr. Mandate), Schools,
Religious Organiz., Salvation Army, Mennonite……, Caritas, …
• Media : Radio, TV, Cable, Printed Media - in separate briefing room
• Technical Organiz.: DDC, Army Corps of Engineers, DOE, EPA,
Forest Service (Forest Fire Fighters, ……. )
• Public Safety: Police, FBI, Coast Guard, …..
• Powers of Last Resort: National Guard, Armed Forces,
• in the US: Help from outside the US ????
International Issues (2):
Organizations Involved (1): United Nations and Affiliates
UNDP, e.g. Emergency Response Division
http://www.undp.org/erd/
OCHA - Off. for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs ;
Disaster Response Branch:
http://www.reliefweb.int/ocha_ol/index.html
Integrated Regional Information Networks:
http://www.reliefweb.int/IRIN/index.phtml
HCfR - UN High Commissioner for Refugees
http://www.unhcr.ch/
UNEP
http://www.unep.org/
UN ISDR - International Strategy for Disaster Reduction:
http://www.unisdr.org/
UNICEF:
http://www.unicef.org/
WFP - World Food Program
http://www.wfp.org/index.htm
WHO:
http://www.who.int/
PAHO:
http://www.paho.org/
International Issues (3)
Organizations Involved (2) : Semi-GOs and NGOs
IFRC - International Federation of Red Cross and Red
Crescent Societies http://www.ifrc.org/
OXFAM, CARITAS, ……. NGO’s both religious and secular.
Development Banks:
WB Worldbank
http://www.worldbank.org/
IMF http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/conflict.htm
ADB Asian DB
http://www.adb.org/
AFDB African DB
http://www.afdb.org/
IDB InterAmerican http://www.iadb.org/ (see PDF s97is.dll)
ECHO: European Commission Humanitarian Aid Office :
http://europa.eu.int/comm/echo/index_en.html
USAID / OFDA:
Useful Web-Links:
http://www.usaid.gov/hum_response/ofda/
http://www.cred.be/centre/links.htm
Temperature rises hint at earthquake prediction Semiconductor
action
and and Heat Spike
temperature rises appear to precede tremors. The idea could also explain the weird pre-quake
behavior of weather, radio transmissions, animals and even people.
Earthquakes begin several kilometres below the surface and electromagnetic waves
cannot travel far through dense rocks. But, in 2000, Freund showed that compressing a
rock can lead to positive charges inside. These can form a charged region of rock that
migrates to the surface at the rate of about 100 to 300 metres per second, where it can
ionise the air - possibly explaining strange pre-quake phenomena sometimes reported.
A positive charge near the surface would draw negatively charged atmospheric particles
closer to the Earth and Freund and Ouzounov think the combining of the charged
particles releases infrared radiation. They believe they can detect this IR signal via
weather satellites about two to five days before a quake happens.
frequent", releases of earth energy building up in the conflicting plates
does prevent an earthquake that would release suddenly a much more
concentrated burst of energy.
but even that is subject to question. since a series of smaller earthquakes
could be just a pre-cursor to an unstoppable much larger one -where the
plate movement is at a much faster speed than normal, and the smaller
advance earthquakes just not able to keep up releasing enough energy,
until that cycle ends with a huge earthquake.