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NINE CHALLENGES OF THE 21ST CENTURY THAT WILL HAVE GLOBAL BENEFIT WHEN WE MEET THEM Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA OUR WORLD IS AT SERIOUS RISK RISK ASSESSMENT •NATURAL HAZARDS •INVENTORY •VULNERABILITY •LOCATION ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE DATA BASES AND INFORMATION YOUR COMMUNITY POLICY OPTIONS HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS •PREPAREDNESS •PROTECTION •SCENARIOS •EMERGENCY RESPONSE •RECOVERY/RECONSTR. DISASTER RESILIENCE PRE- AND POST-DISASTER ASSESSMENTS RENEWING INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTING CYBER SPACE DISASTER RESILIENCE • THE CHALLENGE: How do you make people, buildings, and infrastructure disaster resilient in communities that are known to be at high risk from floods, severe windstorms, earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and wildfires? PRE- AND POST-DISASTER ASSESSMENTS • THE CHALLENGE: How do you use computer and information technology to create realistic preevent disaster scenarios and postdisaster assessments for use in educational surges, recovery and reconstruction, and policies? RENEWING COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE • THE CHALLENGE: How do you renew aging, increasingly vulnerable community infrastructure while simultaneously maintaining and/or improving the environmental balance? CYBER SPACE • THE CHALLENGE: How do you protect the global information infrastructure from identity theft, viruses, and other threats while sustaining a timely flow of high-quality data? CAUSES OF DAMAGE INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) EARTHQUAKES “DISASTER LABORATORIES” IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP POOR DETAILING AND WEAK CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS FRAGILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP TSUNAMIS “DISASTER LABORATORIES” INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI CAUSES OF RISK LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS FLOODS STRUCTURE & CONTENTS: DAMAGE FROM WATER DISASTER LABORATORIES WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS) EROSION AND MUDFLOWS CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER CAUSES OF DAMAGE WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS SEVERE WINDSTORMS “DISASTER LABORATORIES” STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES CAUSES OF RISK LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC FLOWS FLYING DEBRIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS DISASTER LABORATORIES VOLCANIC ASH LAVA FLOWS LAHARS TOXIC GASES CAUSES OF DAMAGE SITING AND BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES LANDSLIDES DISASTER LABORATORIES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS PRECIPITATION THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE SHAKING GROUND SHAKING THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE CAUSES OF DAMAGE LIGHTNING STRIKES MANMADE FIRES PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA TO WILDLANDS INTERFACE WILDFIRES DISASTER LABORATORIES WIND DIRECTION (DAY AND NIGHT) DRYNESS HIGH TEMPERATURES FUEL SUPPLY CAUSES OF DAMAGE PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY DROUGHTS DISASTER LABORATORIES DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER LOSS OF VEGETATION INSECT INFESTATION LOSS OF LAND FROM DESERTIFICATION HEALTHCARE NEW MEDICINES CLEAN WATER TO BE ELABORATED SEPARATELY HEALTHCARE • THE CHALLENGE: How do you identify the specific factors behind wellness and illness, and follow through on them to realize the global promise of healthcare? NEW MEDICINES • THE CHALLENGE: How do you find new treatments for age-old scourges such as malaria and the emerging diseases? CLEAN WATER • THE CHALLENGE: How do you increase the precious and relatively short supply of clean water for personal use and irrigation in all areas of the world? CARBON SEQUESTRATION SOLAR ENERGY TO BE ELABORATED SEPARATELY INCREASING THE BENEFIT/COST OF SOLAR ENERGY • THE CHALLENGE: How do you convert and store the power of sunshine at a cost competitive with fossil fuels? CARBON SEQUESTRATION • THE CHALLENGE: How do you capture the carbon dioxide produced from fossil-fuel burning, and confine the excess carbon underground?