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Go see contagion What dose (#of spores inhaled) would Cause X% infection rate Small doses are infectious to some Humans Rare cases are tail of distribution
Healthy humans can tolerate low doses
Rare cases were caused by unusually high doses In 1966, 1,236 monkeys were exposed by military studies A log-probit model fit was used
ID50=4,130 spores
Probit slope: m=0.669
In another study in 1953, of: 72 monkeys
Lowest dose was 35,000 spores
1 out of 8 monkeys died Exponential model: Haus (2002) r: probability that one inhaled spore "germinates" and causes infection If you inhale "d" spores, what's the probability that at least one germinates? Dose is polsson distributed with mean d If spore is not cleared, what's the probability of NOT germinating up to time S?
If spore germinates what's the probability of NOT being cleared up to time S?
What's the probability of spore germinating in time S?
What's the probability that a spore is not cleared and does not germinate from
time 0 to S, then germinates in time (S, S+ S)
What's the probability that spore germinates sometime before time t?
Incubation period: time from exposure to onset of symptoms Probability of onset of symptoms by time t Assume exponential growth of bacteria Symptoms begin when population reaches threshold N Example
Antibiotics course: how long should you take them? (60 days is recommended)