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37 C HAPTE R INTERNATIONAL TRADE KEY FACTS ON TRADE Export Goods & Services 16% of American GDP Export Partners Canada 13%, Mexico 8%, China 4%, Japan 3% Import Partners China 15.4%, Canada 11.6%, Mexico, 9.1%, Japan, 4.9%, Germany 3.7% $695.9 billion Trade Deficit in 2009 GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE Shares of World Exports, Selected Nations, 1999 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 United States Germany Japan France United Kingdom Canada Italy Source: World Trade Organization Source: WTO. Share of World Goods Exports, Leading Exporters, 1950-2008 The first decade of the 21st century have seen a significant shift in the share of global trade of the leading exporters (United States, Japan, Germany and China more recently). The enduring trend involving the relative decline of American exports has accelerated to the point that Germany became the world's leading exporter in 2003 with China climbing to the second rank in 2007. Japan's share has been declining for about 15 years and was overtaken in 2004 by China. However, it must be considered that many Japanese (and Korean) corporations have relocated in China parts of their production facilities, so some Chinese exports are embedded within Japanese supply chains. There is thus a convergence and an enduring stability of the share of the world's four leading exporters, hovering in the 30% of total exports range. ECOMOMIC BASIS FOR TRADE Distribution of Economic Resources Different Technologies and/or Resources Goods are Differentiated as to Quality and other Nonprice Attributes Labor-Intensive Goods Land-Intensive Goods Capital-Intensive Goods COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE Two Isolated Nations Constant Costs Straight Line PPF’s Different Costs Different Technology and Resources in Each Nation Cost Ratio Self-Sufficiency Output Mix Trading According to Comparative Advantage Graphically... PRODUCTION POSSIBILITIES Curve For Each Country United States Brazil 45 40 30 Coffee (tons) Coffee (tons) 35 25 20 15 10 30 25 20 15 10 A 5 5 B 0 0 5 10 15 20 Wheat (tons) 25 30 5 10 15 20 Wheat (tons) PRODUCTION POSSIBILITIES Principle of Comparative Advantage Total output will be greatest when Each good is produced by the nation that has the lowest domestic opportunity cost for that good. U.S has comparative advantage in wheat Brazil has comparative advantage in coffee PRODUCTION POSSIBILITIES Principle of Comparative Advantage Terms of Trade Gains From Trade Improved Options Trading Possibilities Line Graphically… TRADING POSSIBILITIES LINES The Gains from Trade United States Brazil 45 40 Trading possibilities line 30 Coffee (tons) Coffee (tons) 35 25 20 15 10 30 25 20 Trading possibilities line 15 10 A 5 5 B 0 0 5 10 15 20 Wheat (tons) 25 30 5 10 15 20 Wheat (tons) TRADING POSSIBILITIES LINES The Gains from Trade United States Brazil 45 40 Trading possibilities line 30 Coffee (tons) Coffee (tons) 35 25 20 15 A’ 10 30 25 20 Trading possibilities line 15 10 A 5 B’ 5 B 0 0 5 10 15 20 Wheat (tons) 25 30 5 10 15 20 Wheat (tons) TRADING POSSIBILITIES LINES The Gains from Trade United States Brazil 45 40 30 25 20 15 Trading possibilities line The Case For Free Trade Coffee (tons) Coffee (tons) 35 A’ 10 30 25 20 Trading possibilities line 15 10 A 5 B’ 5 B 0 0 5 10 15 20 Wheat (tons) 25 30 5 10 15 20 Wheat (tons) U.S. EXPORT SUPPLY AND IMPORT DEMAND U.S. Export Supply And Import Demand Sd $1.50 Price (per pound; U.S. dollars) Price (per pound; U.S. dollars) U.S. Domestic Aluminum Market $1.50 1.25 1.00 .75 .50 Dd .25 50 75 100 125 150 Quantity of Aluminum 1.25 1.00 If the world price exceeds the U.S. price by 25 cents... .75 .50 .25 50 100 Quantity of Aluminum U.S. EXPORT SUPPLY AND IMPORT DEMAND U.S. Export Supply And Import Demand Sd $1.50 Price (per pound; U.S. dollars) Price (per pound; U.S. dollars) U.S. Domestic Aluminum Market $1.50 SURPLUS = 50 1.25 1.00 .75 .50 Dd .25 50 75 100 125 150 Quantity of Aluminum 1.25 EXPORTS = 50 1.00 .75 .50 If the world price goes further up... .25 50 100 Quantity of Aluminum U.S. EXPORT SUPPLY AND IMPORT DEMAND U.S. Export Supply And Import Demand Sd $1.50 SURPLUS = 100 1.25 SURPLUS = 50 $1.50 1.00 .75 .50 Dd .25 50 75 100 125 150 Quantity of Aluminum Price (per pound; U.S. dollars) Price (per pound; U.S. dollars) U.S. Domestic Aluminum Market 1.25 EXPORTS = 100 U.S. export supply EXPORTS = 50 1.00 .75 .50 If world prices fall below $1.00... .25 50 100 Quantity of Aluminum U.S. EXPORT SUPPLY AND IMPORT DEMAND U.S. Export Supply And Import Demand Sd $1.50 SURPLUS = 100 1.25 SURPLUS = 50 $1.50 1.00 .75 SHORTAGE = 50 .50 Dd .25 50 75 100 125 150 Quantity of Aluminum Price (per pound; U.S. dollars) Price (per pound; U.S. dollars) U.S. Domestic Aluminum Market 1.25 EXPORTS = 100 U.S. export supply EXPORTS = 50 1.00 .75 IMPORTS = 50 .50 .25 50 100 Quantity of Aluminum U.S. EXPORT SUPPLY AND IMPORT DEMAND U.S. Export Supply And Import Demand Sd $1.50 SURPLUS = 100 1.25 SURPLUS = 50 $1.50 1.00 .75 SHORTAGE = 50 .50 SHORTAGE = 100 Dd .25 50 75 100 125 150 Quantity of Aluminum Price (per pound; U.S. dollars) Price (per pound; U.S. dollars) U.S. Domestic Aluminum Market 1.25 EXPORTS = 100 U.S. export supply EXPORTS = 50 1.00 U.S. import demand .75 IMPORTS = 50 .50 IMPORTS = 100 .25 50 100 Quantity of Aluminum CANADIAN EXPORT SUPPLY AND IMPORT DEMAND Canada’s Export Supply And Import Demand Sd $1.50 SURPLUS = 100 1.25 SURPLUS = 50 1.00 .75 .50 SHORTAGE = 50 .25 50 Dd 75 100 125 150 Quantity of Aluminum Price (per pound; U.S. dollars) Price (per pound; U.S. dollars) Canada’s Domestic Aluminum Market Canadian export supply $1.50 1.25 1.00 Canadian import demand .75 .50 .25 50 100 Quantity of Aluminum EQUILIBRIUM WORLD PRICE AND QUANTITY OF EXPORTS & IMPORTS Price (per pound; U.S. dollars) U.S. export supply $1.50 Canadian export supply 1.25 1.00 .88 .75 Equilibrium U.S. import demand .50 .25 Canadian import demand 25 50 100 Quantity of Aluminum TRADE BARRIERS Tariffs-excise taxes on imported goods Revenue Tariff-provide Federal Government with revenue (usually on products not produced domestically) Protective Tariff-designed to shield domestic producers Import Quota-sets a maximum amount that may be imported Nontariff Barrier (NTB)-licensing, safety, government “red tape” Voluntary Export Restriction (VER) ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TARIFFS Direct Effects • Decline in Consumption • Increased Domestic Production • Decline in Imports • Tariff Revenue Indirect Effects •Promote inefficiencies •Decrease Aggregate demand ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TARIFFS Economic Impact of Quotas Revenue transferred to foreign producers Net Costs of Tariffs and Quotas Price goes up to consumers Impact On Income Distribution Burden disproportionately hits low incomes THE CASE FOR PROTECTION Military Self-Sufficiency Increase Domestic Employment •Job Creation From Imports •Fallacy of Composition •Retaliation •Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 •Long-run feedbacks Diversification-For-Stability Infant-Industry Argument Strategic Trade Policy Protection-Against-Dumping Cheap Foreign Labor THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION World Trade Organization (WTO) •Reductions in Tariffs Worldwide • New Rules to Promote Trade in Services •Reduction in Agricultural Subsidies •Intellectual Property Protections •Phasing Out Textile Quotas and Tariffs THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION World Trade Organization (WTO) •Reductions in Tariffs Worldwide •New Rules to Promote Trade in Services •Reduction in Agricultural Subsidies •Intellectual Property Protections •Phasing Out Textile Quotas and Tariffs Chapter Conclusions labor-intensive goods land-intensive goods capital-intensive goods cost ratio principle of comparative advantage terms of trade trading possibilities line gains from trade world price domestic price Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin 2002 export supply curve import demand curve equilibrium world price tariffs revenue tariff protective tariff import quota nontariff barrier (NTB) voluntary export restriction (VER) strategic trade policy dumping World Trade Organization (WTO) BACK END EXCHANGE RATES THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, AND TRADE DEFICITS Chapter 38 Coming soon...