Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
THE FAO FISH AND SEAFOOD MODEL PIERRE CHARLEBOIS 5TH AD-HOC FISH PRICE INDEX WORKSHOP ISCHIA, ITALY, 3RD & 4TH OCTOBER 2013 CONTEXT • RISING FOOD SECURITY CONCERNS • GROWING DEMAND FOR HIGHER VALUE FOOD INCLUDING FISH BY MANY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES • OECD/FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK TEAM SUGGESTED THE ADDITION OF FISH • ADOPTING THE AGLINK/COSIMO STRUCTURE AND LEVEL OF AGGREGATION AGLINK/COSIMO • DYNAMIC, POLICY SPECIFIC, NON-SPATIAL PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF KEY INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL MARKETS SHARED BY MANY ORGANISATIONS • 56 COUNTRY/REGION COMPONENTS • PC-TROLL SOFTWARE • PRODUCING OUTLOOK AND POLICY AND MARKET ANALYSES HISTORY OF THE FISH MODEL • BUILT IN THE FALL OF 2009 AND WINTER OF 2010 AS A SATELLITE MODEL TO AGLINK/COSIMO • INTEGRATED IN THE OECD/FAO OUTLOOK SYSTEM IN 2011 AND PUBLISHED WITH FISH FOR THE 1ST TIME • IMPROVED AQUACULTURE SUPPLY ELASTICITIES INCORPORATED IN 2012 • TWO OTHER FISH OUTLOOK IN 2012 AND 2013 • COMPLETE REVISION OF THE DEMAND ELASTICITIES AND OF THE FISH MEAL DEMAND FUNCTION IN 2013 THE FISH MODEL • • • • 1111 EQUATIONS 45 COUNTRY/REGION ENDOGENOUS MODULES 3 PRODUCTS: FISH, FISH MEAL AND FISH OIL 2 SUPPLY FUNCTIONS FOR CAPTURE AND AQUACULTURE • ONLY ONE AGGREGATE FISH DEMAND BUT FOR 3 DIFFERENT TYPES OF USES: - FOOD - PROCESSED INTO FISH MEAL AND OIL - OTHER USES SUPPLY • CAPTURE BEING CONTROLLED IS KEPT EXOGENOUS FOR MOST COUTRIES • ENDOGENOUS BUT NO PRICE RESPONSE FOR COUNTRY AFFECTED BY EL NINO • ONLY 12% OF WORLD CAPTURE RESPONDS TO PRICE • 99% OF WORLD AQUACULTURE IS ENDOGENOUS AND RESPONSIVE TO PRICE OF OUTPUT AND FEED USING RATION SPECIFIC TO SPECIES • THE PRODUCTION LAG, THE AMOUNT AND TYPE OF FEED OF THE MAIN AQUACULTURE SPECIES ARE CAPTURED • FISH MEAL AND OIL SUPPLY MODELLED LIKE OILSEED OIL AND MEAL – 97% OF WORLD REDUCTION (CRUSH) IS ENDOGENOUS BUT ONLY 37% RESPONDS TO OUTPUT PRICES AND TO THE OPPORTUNITY COST REPRESENTED BY THE FISH PRICE – THE REST IS TIED TO CAPTURE WHICH ARE CONTROLLED AND EXOGENOUS – FISH MEAL AND OIL PRODUCTION FROM FISH RESIDUE IS TIED TO FISH PRODUCTION USED FOR FOOD CONSUMPTION DEMAND • OWN PRICE ELASTICITY OF FISH AND SEAFOOD DEMAND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MEAT IN MOST COUNTRIES • INCOME ELASTICITY OF FISH AND SEAFOOD DEMAND IS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF MEATS • PRICE OF FISH AS AN OPPORTUNITY COST AFFECTS 37% OF WORLD REDUCTION (CRUSH) DEMAND • DEMAND FOR OTHER USES IS KEPT EXOGENOUS • STOCK DEMAND IS IN GENERAL SMALL AND KEPT EXOGENOUS • DEMAND FOR FISH OIL AND MEAL RESPOND TO THE NEED OF AQUACULTURE, THE OWN PRICE AND THE PRICE OF OILSEED PRODUCTS - IN GENERAL THE ESTIMATED ELASTICITIES SHOW STRONG SUBSTITUTION BETWEEN FISH AND OILSEED PRODUCTS PRICE DATA • EXCEPT FOR AQUACULTURE ALL OTHER PRICES CORRESPOND TO THE VALUE OF TRADE (THE SUM OF IMPORT AND EXPORT) DIVIDED BY QUANTITY TRADED FOR COUNTRIES & WORLD • AQUACULTURE PRICE CORRESPONDS TO PER UNIT VALUE OF PRODUCTION • WORLD PRICE OF CAPTURE IS IS FROM FAO • CONSUMER PRICES ARE RETAIL PRICES • PRICE OF FISH OIL AND MEAL ARE NORTHERN EUROPE PRICE EQUATIONS • COUNTRY FISH PRICE IS CALCULATED IN THE DOMESTIC MARKET CLEARING IDENTITY • COUNTRY AQUACULTURE PRICE IS TIED TO FISH PRICE AND TO THE RATIO OF AQUACULTURE TO TOTAL PRODUCTION • DOMESTIC FISH MEAL AND OIL PRICES ARE CALCULATED IN A PRICE TRANSMISSION EQUATION • CONSUMER PRICE IS A FUNCTION OF FISH PRICE AND GDPD DEFLATOR AS A PROXY FOR OTHER COSTS • WORLD PRICES OF FISH, FISH MEAL AND OILS CLEAR IN THE IDENTITY BETWEEN TOTAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS • WORLD AQUACULTURE PRICE IS CALCULATED FROM THE SUM OF VALUE OF PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTION • WORLD CAPTURE PRICE IS CALCULATED USING OVERALL FISH AND AQUACULTURE PRICE AND THE SHARE OF THE RESPECTIVE PRODUCTION TRADE EQUATIONS • FISH MEAL AND OIL IMPORTS OR EXPORTS ARE CALCULATED IN THE MARKET CLEARING IDENTITY • FOR FISH, IMPORTS AND/OR EXPORTS ARE A FUNCTION OF THE RATIO BETWEEN THE DOMESTIC PRICE AND TRADED PRICE - IN THE CASE OF EXPORT, THE TRADED PRICE IS THE WORLD PRICE IN LOCAL CURRENCY - IN THE CASE OF IMPORT, THE TRADED PRICE IS THE WORLD PRICE PLUS TRANSPORT COST PLUS TARIFF IN LOCAL CURRENCY - ELASTICITIES WERE ESTIMATED OR CHOSEN TO INSURE THAT THE TRANSMISSION BETWEEN WORLD AND DOMESTIC PRICE WAS CONSISTENT WITH THE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT RECENT AND NEXT STEPS • REVISION OF THE FISH MEAL DEMAND FUNCTION OF AGLINK • REVISION OF THE FISH DEMAND ELASTICITIES • REVISION OF THE FISH MEAL DEMAND FUNCTION OF COSIMO • INCLUDING THE CONSUMER PRICE OF FISH IN THE MEAT DEMAND FUNCTIONS • BUILDING A CONSISTENT DISAGGREGATED SATELLITE FISH MODEL