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Building Blocks (and the Devil) in
Commercial Assessment and Planning
Richard W. Martin, President and Chief Operating Officer
The Mattson Jack Group, Inc.
April 2008
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outside the client organization without prior written approval from The Mattson Jack Group, Inc.
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Introduction
 Multiple slides
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The Devils of Commercial Assessment and
Planning
Epidemiology
Patient Behavior
Treatment Protocols
Commercial Environment
Competitive Set
Regulatory Environment
Commercialization Strategy
Partner Coordination
Logistics and Supply
Financial Considerations
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Epidemiology is the starting point in the pharmaceutical
commercial market assessment and planning process.
 How many patients have the disease or condition and are eligible to be
treated?
• Drug discovery prioritization
• Clinical trial planning
• Licensing
• Additional indications for in-line products
• Resource allocation and investment decisions
• Go / no-go decisions all along the way
 Too often, too little attention is paid to this critical element of business
planning.
• Epidemiology is the first potential major “trip up” in the commercial
assessment and planning process
• The impact of errors here are multiplied throughout the planning process
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Epidemiology non-oncology examples
 Multiple slides
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Changes in core disease rates can trip up the best
planners.
 The previous examples show the effect of demographics when the rate of
disease is static. What happens when the disease rate also changes?
 One must analyze the “age-adjusted” disease rate.
• An overall disease rate is dependent on demographic composition at the time
the rate was determined.
• An age-adjusted rate corrects for changes in demographic composition.
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Epidemiology oncology examples
 Multiple slides
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Co-Morbid Considerations
 Why is it important to consider co-morbid diseases / conditions?
• To prevent “double counting” resulting in over- or under-estimating market size
• For example, many individual compounds are used to treat multiple psychiatric conditions
 Where should one be most careful regarding co-morbid diseases /
conditions? (And, let’s not forget about severity)
• Respiratory disease (asthma, COPD, allergic rhinitis)
• Multiple indications for a single product (e.g., Sanofi-Aventis’ rimonabant
originally considered for smoking, obesity, hypertension and diabetes together)
• Psychiatric illnesses (depression, anxiety, others)
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Co-morbidity examples
 Multiple slides
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And so it goes
Patient Behavior
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Treatment Protocol
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Commercial Environment
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Competitive Environment
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Regulatory Environment
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Commercialization Strategies
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Partner Coordination
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Logistics and Supply
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Financial Considerations
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Thank You!
Richard W. Martin
President and COO
The Mattson Jack Group, Inc.
11960 Westline Drive, Suite 180
St. Louis, MO 63146
Tel: 314.469-7600
Fax: 314.469.6794
E-mail: [email protected]
www.mattsonjack.com
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