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Contents 1. OVERVIEW 1.1. Monetary Policy Implementation and Monetary Conditions 1 1.2. Macroeconomic Developments and Main Assumptions 4 1.3. Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook 8 1.4. Risks and Monetary Policy 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 1 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 9 11 2.1. Global Growth 12 2.2. Commodity Prices 14 2.3. Global Inflation 17 2.4. Financial Conditions and Risk Indicators 18 2.5. Global Monetary Policy Developments 22 INFLATION DEVELOPMENTS 33 3.1. Inflation 33 3.2. Expectations 41 SUPPLY AND DEMAND DEVELOPMENTS 47 4.1. Gross Domestic Product Developments and Domestic Demand 48 4.2. External Demand 52 4.3. Labor Market 56 FINANCIAL MARKETS AND FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION 75 5.1. Financial Markets 75 5.2. Financial Intermediation and Loans 84 PUBLIC FINANCE 101 6.1. Budget Developments 102 6.2. Developments in the Debt Stock 105 MEDIUM-TERM PROJECTIONS 109 7.1. Current State of the Economy, Short-Term Outlook and Assumptions 109 7.2. Medium-Term Outlook 112 7.3. Risks and Monetary Policy 116 BOXES Box 2.1. December 9 Decisions and the Euro Area Debt Crisis 26 Box 2.2. Possible Impacts of Soaring Public Spending in the MENA Region on Crude oil Prices 29 Box 3.1. Analysis of Underlying Inflation by Principal Components 43 Box 4.1. A Real-Time Business Cycle Indicator for Turkey 60 Box 4.2. Recent Developments in the Demand Composition 63 Box 4.3. A Sectoral Look at the Import Coverage Ratio of Exports 66 Box 4.4. A Comparison of the Recent Unemployment Rates to 2005-2007 Period by Sectoral Employment Dynamics Box 5.1. The Liquidity Management in the Recent Period and Its Consequences Box 5.2. Changing Role of the Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis 70 90 94 Box 7.1. Sources of Revisions to end-2011 Forecasts 118 Box 7.2. The Role of Base Effects on the CPI Inflation in 2012 123