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Measuring Recession and Recovery: An Economic Perspective Charles Bean Deputy Governor, Bank of England RSS Statistics User Forum Annual Conference 27 October 2010 Chart 1: GDP growth projection, August 2008 IR(a) Percentage increases in output on a year earlier 6 Bank estimates of past growth Projection 4 2 0 ONS Data (Aug'08 vintage) -2 ONS data (Latest vintage) -4 -6 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: Bank of England. (a) Conditioned on market interest rate expectations. The fan chart depicts the probability of various outcomes for GDP growth. To the left of the first vertical dashed line, the distribution reflects the likelihood of revisions to the data over the past; to the right, it reflects uncertainty over the evolution of GDP growth in the future. Chart 2: Central GDP growth forecasts Per cent BoE mean forecast 1yr previously 6 4 2 0 Consensus forecast 1yr previously(a) Outturn -2 -4 -6 -8 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 Sources: Bank of England and Consensus Economics. (a) Bars show the range of forecasts for the following year; diamonds show the mean forecast. Chart 3: Survey measures of capacity utilisation(a) Differences from averages since 2000 (number of standard deviations) 3 Range of survey indicators 2 1 0 -1 -2 Services -3 Manufacturing -4 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Sources: Bank of England, BCC, CBI, CBI/PwC and ONS. (a) Surveys from the Bank’s Agents (manufacturing and services), the BCC (manufacturing and services) and the CBI (manufacturing, financial services, business/consumer services, distributive trades). The BCC data are non seasonally adjusted. Chart 4: Unemployment rates(a) Recessions (b) Long-term unemployment rate (c) Per cent Unemployment rate 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 Source: ONS (including the Labour Force Survey). (a) Rolling three-month measures, unless otherwise stated. (b) Recessions are defined as at least two consecutive quarters of falling output (at constant market prices) estimated using the latest data. The recessions are assumed to end once output began to rise. (c) Defined as those people who have been unemployed for more than twelve months divided by the economically active population. Data prior to 1992 are based on non seasonally adjusted, annual LFS microdata. These annual observations correspond to the March-May quarter. Chart 5: UK GDP and employment: now vs 1990s Percentage change since the prerecession peak in output 1 0 -1 -2 Employment Dashed lines represent the 1990s recession GDP -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 0 1 2 3 Source: ONS. 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Quarters Chart 6: Output after banking crises(a) Percent of precrisis trend; mean difference from year t = - 1 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 10th-90th percentile Estimated mean path Interquartile range UK -40 -50 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Distance in years from the first year of crisis 7 Source: IMF and Bank calculations. (a) Sample of 88 banking crises. Output level relative to trend measured from the ten years before the crisis to three years before. Chart 7: Company liquidations and GDP Recessions Company liquidations (left-hand scale, inverted) GDP (right-hand scale) Number of liquidations per quarter Percentage change on a year earlier 0 10 2,000 5 4,000 0 6,000 -5 8,000 -10 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Sources: The Insolvency Service and ONS. Measuring Recession and Recovery: An Economic Perspective The End www.bankofengland.co.uk