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Transcript
Lecture (6.4.2)
Table of Contents
Begin
Copyright © 2013 N.S.
End Show
Candy Auction
Several pieces of candy are going to be auctioned in class today. There will be two
rounds of auctioning, and four different students will be given fake money each
round. Whoever offers the highest bid for each piece of candy will win it. (All bids
must be rounded to the nearest full dollar amount.)
RECORD DATA
Record all transaction prices in the tables below.
Round 1
Piece of Candy
Round 2
Price Paid
Piece of Candy
1)
1)
2)
2)
3)
3)
4)
5)
6)
TOTAL
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See
Sample
4)
Skip
Sample
6)
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Price Paid
5)
TOTAL
Forward
Resources
End Show
Candy Auction
Several pieces of candy are going to be auctioned in class today. There will be two
rounds of auctioning, and four different students will be given fake money each
round. Whoever offers the highest bid for each piece of candy will win it. (All bids
must be rounded to the nearest full dollar amount.)
RECORD DATA
Record all transaction prices in the tables below.
Round 1
Piece of Candy
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
TOTAL
Title Page
Table of Contents
Round 2
Price Paid
Piece of Candy
$9
$7
1)
$7
$8
$8
$9
$ 48
3)
2)
4)
5)
6)
TOTAL
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Price Paid
$ 14
$ 17
$ 20
$ 21
$ 13
$ 11
$ 96
Resources
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Candy Auction
MARKET BASKET
When economists want to see how prices have changed over time, they use a
system of calculation that utilizes a hypothetical market basket. A market basket is a
set of consumer goods and services that is used to compare changing price levels
over time. What six items were in our classroom’s market basket?
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
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Candy Auction
CALCULATE THE PRICE INDEX
A price index measures the cost of purchasing a market basket in a given year. The
base year always has a price index of 100. (In our case the base year is Round 1.)
Finding the price index for a year that is not the base year, such as Round 2, will tell
us how much prices have increased or decreased since the base year. Use the
following formula to calculate the price index for Round 2.
Round 2 Price Index =
Cost of Market Basket in Round 2
Cost of Market Basket in Base Year
X 100
See
Sample
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Sample
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Candy Auction
CALCULATE THE PRICE INDEX
A price index measures the cost of purchasing a market basket in a given year. The
base year always has a price index of 100. (In our case the base year is Round 1.)
Finding the price index for a year that is not the base year, such as Round 2, will tell
us how much prices have increased or decreased since the base year. Use the
following formula to calculate the price index for Round 2.
Round 2 Price Index =
Cost of Market Basket in Round 2
Cost of Market Basket in Base Year
96
Round 2 Price Index =
Round 2 Price Index =
Title Page
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X 100
48
(2 x 100)
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=
X 100
200
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Candy Auction
CALCULATE THE INFLATION RATE
Now that we know the price indexes for each round, we can calculate the inflation
rate. The inflation rate is the percentage change in a price index. Use the following
formula to calculate the inflation rate between Round 1 and Round 2. (Remember,
the “Round 1 Price Index” is equal to 100 because it is the base year.)
Inflation Rate =
Round 2 Price Index - Round 1 Price Index
Round 1 Price Index
X 100
See
Sample
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Sample
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Candy Auction
CALCULATE THE INFLATION RATE
Now that we know the price indexes for each round, we can calculate the inflation
rate. The inflation rate is the percentage change in a price index. Use the following
formula to calculate the inflation rate between Round 1 and Round 2. (Remember,
the “Round 1 Price Index” is equal to 100 because it is the base year.)
Inflation Rate =
Round 2 Price Index - Round 1 Price Index
Round 1 Price Index
200 - 100
Inflation Rate =
Inflation Rate =
Title Page
Table of Contents
100
(1 x 100)
Back
=
X 100
X 100
100 %
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Candy Auction
CALCULATE THE INFLATION RATE
Why do you think prices were higher in Round 2 than in Round 1?
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“Inflation” Learning Targets
Knowledge 5
Understand how inflation causes prices to
change over time.
Reasoning 3
Explain why a small, but positive, inflation
rate is desirable.
Skill 2
Calculate data regarding inflation.
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Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The most important measure of prices in the United States is the Consumer
Price Index (CPI), which uses a market basket for its calculations.
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Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The most important measure of prices in the United States is the Consumer
Price Index (CPI), which uses a market basket for its calculations.
1) The market basket consists of
items the average family of four
would purchase in a city.
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Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The most important measure of prices in the United States is the Consumer
Price Index (CPI), which uses a market basket for its calculations.
1) The market basket consists of
items the average family of four
would purchase in a city.
2) The base years are 1982 1984. Thus, the CPI is roughly
100 in these years.
Title Page
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CPI
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Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The most important measure of prices in the United States is the Consumer
Price Index (CPI), which uses a market basket for its calculations.
1) The market basket consists of
items the average family of four
would purchase in a city.
2) The base years are 1982 1984. Thus, the CPI is roughly
100 in these years.
3) The percentage change in the
CPI is the inflation rate.
Title Page
Table of Contents
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Inflation
CPI
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Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The most important measure of prices in the United States is the Consumer
Price Index (CPI), which uses a market basket for its calculations.
1) The market basket consists of
items the average family of four
would purchase in a city.
2) The base years are 1982 1984. Thus, the CPI is roughly
100 in these years.
3) The percentage change in the
CPI is the inflation rate.
4) Steep growth in the CPI (notice
the 1970s) is accompanied by
high inflation rates.
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Inflation
CPI
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Causes of Inflation
It is generally considered that these four events cause inflation.
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Causes of Inflation
It is generally considered that these four events cause inflation.
1) Money Supply Increases
Prices will increase if “too many
dollars are chasing too few goods.”
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Causes of Inflation
It is generally considered that these four events cause inflation.
1) Money Supply Increases
Prices will increase if “too many
dollars are chasing too few goods.”
2) Money Demand Decreases
This has the same effect as having
more money in the economy.
Title Page
Table of Contents
Back
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Forward
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End Show
Causes of Inflation
It is generally considered that these four events cause inflation.
1) Money Supply Increases
Prices will increase if “too many
dollars are chasing too few goods.”
2) Money Demand Decreases
This has the same effect as having
more money in the economy.
Draw the Graph
3) Aggregate Demand Increases
When people want to buy more
goods, prices will rise, which is
called demand-pull inflation.
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Forward
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End Show
Causes of Inflation
It is generally considered that these four events cause inflation.
1) Money Supply Increases
Prices will increase if “too many
dollars are chasing too few goods.”
AS
2) Money Demand Decreases
This has the same effect as having
more money in the economy.
AD2
3) Aggregate Demand Increases
When people want to buy more
goods, prices will rise, which is
called demand-pull inflation.
Title Page
Table of Contents
Back
AD
Last Slide
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Forward
Resources
End Show
Causes of Inflation
It is generally considered that these four events cause inflation.
1) Money Supply Increases
Prices will increase if “too many
dollars are chasing too few goods.”
2) Money Demand Decreases
This has the same effect as having
more money in the economy.
Draw the Graph
3) Aggregate Demand Increases
When people want to buy more
goods, prices will rise, which is
called demand-pull inflation.
4) Aggregate Supply Decreases
If production costs increase in an
economy, the supply decreases,
which is cost-push inflation.
Title Page
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Last Slide
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Forward
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End Show
Causes of Inflation
It is generally considered that these four events cause inflation.
1) Money Supply Increases
Prices will increase if “too many
dollars are chasing too few goods.”
AS2
AS
2) Money Demand Decreases
This has the same effect as having
more money in the economy.
3) Aggregate Demand Increases
When people want to buy more
goods, prices will rise, which is
called demand-pull inflation.
AD
4) Aggregate Supply Decreases
If production costs increase in an
economy, the supply decreases,
which is cost-push inflation.
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Costs of Inflation
Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally
considered to have several costs associated with it.
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Costs of Inflation
Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally
considered to have several costs associated with it.
1) Lenders and borrowers can be
positively or negatively affected by
unexpected inflation.
See
Example
Skip
Example
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Costs of Inflation
Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally
considered to have several costs associated with it.
1) Lenders and borrowers can be
positively or negatively affected by
unexpected inflation.
Title Page
Table of Contents
Back
• Suppose a bank charges an interest rate
of 7% on a loan. The expected inflation
rate is 5%. This means the bank expects
to make a real profit of 2% (7% - 5%).
Last Slide
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Costs of Inflation
Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally
considered to have several costs associated with it.
1) Lenders and borrowers can be
positively or negatively affected by
unexpected inflation.
• Suppose a bank charges an interest rate
of 7% on a loan. The expected inflation
rate is 5%. This means the bank expects
to make a real profit of 2% (7% - 5%).
• Suppose there is unexpected inflation,
adding another 1% to inflation (6% total).
The bank will now make a profit of just
1%. Inflation hurt the bank!
Title Page
Table of Contents
Back
Last Slide
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Forward
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End Show
Costs of Inflation
Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally
considered to have several costs associated with it.
1) Lenders and borrowers can be
positively or negatively affected by
unexpected inflation.
• Suppose a bank charges an interest rate
of 7% on a loan. The expected inflation
rate is 5%. This means the bank expects
to make a real profit of 2% (7% - 5%).
• Suppose there is unexpected inflation,
adding another 1% to inflation (6% total).
The bank will now make a profit of just
1%. Inflation hurt the bank!
• Borrowers, in this case, expected to pay
a real interest rate of 2% (7% - 5%).
Title Page
Table of Contents
Back
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Forward
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End Show
Costs of Inflation
Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally
considered to have several costs associated with it.
1) Lenders and borrowers can be
positively or negatively affected by
unexpected inflation.
• Suppose a bank charges an interest rate
of 7% on a loan. The expected inflation
rate is 5%. This means the bank expects
to make a real profit of 2% (7% - 5%).
• Suppose there is unexpected inflation,
adding another 1% to inflation (6% total).
The bank will now make a profit of just
1%. Inflation hurt the bank!
• Borrowers, in this case, expected to pay
a real interest rate of 2% (7% - 5%).
• Borrowers now only pay a real interest
rate of 1% instead of 2%. Borrowers won!
Title Page
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Costs of Inflation
Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally
considered to have several costs associated with it.
1) Lenders and borrowers can be
positively or negatively affected by
unexpected inflation.
2) Because inflation reduces the
value of money, people avoid holding
it.
The increased costs of
transactions are shoe-leather costs.
They are called shoe-leather costs because of
the wear and tear on people’s shoes as they run
around making numerous transactions.
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Costs of Inflation
Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally
considered to have several costs associated with it.
1) Lenders and borrowers can be
positively or negatively affected by
unexpected inflation.
2) Because inflation reduces the
value of money, people avoid holding
it.
The increased costs of
transactions are shoe-leather costs.
3) Menu costs are the costs of
changing prices.
High inflation
causes this to happen frequently.
These costs include paying labor to change
price tags, printing fees, and the costs of
supplies for displaying prices.
Title Page
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Costs of Inflation
Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally
considered to have several costs associated with it.
1) Lenders and borrowers can be
positively or negatively affected by
unexpected inflation.
2) Because inflation reduces the
value of money, people avoid holding
it.
The increased costs of
transactions are shoe-leather costs.
3) Menu costs are the costs of
changing prices.
High inflation
causes this to happen frequently.
4) Unit of account costs are when
inflation makes money a less reliable
unit of measurement.
Title Page
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Inflation and Unemployment
The inflation rate and the unemployment rate are two economic indicators that
are strongly connected.
Title Page
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Inflation and Unemployment
The inflation rate and the unemployment rate are two economic indicators that
are strongly connected.
1) The business cycle shows that
there is a short-run tradeoff between
inflation and unemployment.
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Inflation and Unemployment
The inflation rate and the unemployment rate are two economic indicators that
are strongly connected.
1) The business cycle shows that
there is a short-run tradeoff between
inflation and unemployment.
a) If either inflation or unemployment
is high, the other is generally low.
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Inflation and Unemployment
The inflation rate and the unemployment rate are two economic indicators that
are strongly connected.
1) The business cycle shows that
there is a short-run tradeoff between
inflation and unemployment.
SRPC
a) If either inflation or unemployment
is high, the other is generally low.
b) The short-run Phillips curve
graphically demonstrates this.
During the 1960s this relationship seemed very
simple. Notice how low rates for one variable
meant high rates for the other variable.
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Inflation and Unemployment
The inflation rate and the unemployment rate are two economic indicators that
are strongly connected.
1) The business cycle shows that
there is a short-run tradeoff between
inflation and unemployment.
a) If either inflation or unemployment
is high, the other is generally low.
b) The short-run Phillips curve
graphically demonstrates this.
SRPC2
2) If inflation is expected, however,
the entire curve shifts upwards.
SRPC1
During the 1970s it was discovered that
expected inflation could effectively raise inflation
rates without lowering the unemployment rate.
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Inflation and Unemployment
The inflation rate and the unemployment rate are two economic indicators that
are strongly connected.
1) The business cycle shows that
there is a short-run tradeoff between
inflation and unemployment.
LRPC
a) If either inflation or unemployment
is high, the other is generally low.
b) The short-run Phillips curve
graphically demonstrates this.
SRPC3
SRPC2
2) If inflation is expected, however,
the entire curve shifts upwards.
3) Thus, the long-run Phillips curve
is a vertical line at the natural rate of
unemployment (near 6% in the U.S.).
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Table of Contents
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SRPC1
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Inflation and Unemployment
The inflation rate and the unemployment rate are two economic indicators that
are strongly connected.
1) The business cycle shows that
there is a short-run tradeoff between
inflation and unemployment.
LRPC
a) If either inflation or unemployment
is high, the other is generally low.
b) The short-run Phillips curve
graphically demonstrates this.
SRPC3
SRPC2
2) If inflation is expected, however,
the entire curve shifts upwards.
3) Thus, the long-run Phillips curve
is a vertical line at the natural rate of
unemployment (near 6% in the U.S.).
4) Attempts to keep unemployment
too low result in ever-increasing
inflation.
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SRPC1
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Controlling Inflation
If inflation becomes embedded in expectations, it needs to be dealt with. This
painful process of reducing expected inflation is called disinflation.
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Controlling Inflation
If inflation becomes embedded in expectations, it needs to be dealt with. This
painful process of reducing expected inflation is called disinflation.
1) If the unemployment rate is too
low, it will lead to increasing inflation.
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Controlling Inflation
If inflation becomes embedded in expectations, it needs to be dealt with. This
painful process of reducing expected inflation is called disinflation.
1) If the unemployment rate is too
low, it will lead to increasing inflation.
2) Thus, to reduce inflation, the
unemployment rate must be kept
above the natural rate.
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End Show
Controlling Inflation
If inflation becomes embedded in expectations, it needs to be dealt with. This
painful process of reducing expected inflation is called disinflation.
1) If the unemployment rate is too
low, it will lead to increasing inflation.
2) Thus, to reduce inflation, the
unemployment rate must be kept
above the natural rate.
3) High unemployment is painful, but
necessary to reduce inflation.
Title Page
Table of Contents
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End Show
Controlling Inflation
If inflation becomes embedded in expectations, it needs to be dealt with. This
painful process of reducing expected inflation is called disinflation.
1) If the unemployment rate is too
low, it will lead to increasing inflation.
2) Thus, to reduce inflation, the
unemployment rate must be kept
above the natural rate.
3) High unemployment is painful, but
necessary to reduce inflation.
4) It is possible, however, for both
inflation and unemployment to be
high, which is called stagflation.
From 1974 - 1982 the U.S. experienced painful
stagflation. Unemployment was above the natural rate
(about 6%) and inflation was above the 2% - 3% target.
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Controlling Inflation
If inflation becomes embedded in expectations, it needs to be dealt with. This
painful process of reducing expected inflation is called disinflation.
1) If the unemployment rate is too
low, it will lead to increasing inflation.
2) Thus, to reduce inflation, the
unemployment rate must be kept
above the natural rate.
3) High unemployment is painful, but
necessary to reduce inflation.
4) It is possible, however, for both
inflation and unemployment to be
high, which is called stagflation.
5) The tools used by policy makers to
control inflation are fiscal policy and
monetary policy.
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Optimal Rate of Inflation
Because of all the problems associated with inflation, the ideal rate is near zero,
but still slightly positive.
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Optimal Rate of Inflation
Because of all the problems associated with inflation, the ideal rate is near zero,
but still slightly positive.
1) Some countries have had
problems with severe inflation, which
is called hyperinflation.
Yes, that is an inflation rate of 3,000%! Argentina, along
with several South American countries, suffered inflation
so bad that people refused to use cash in transactions.
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Optimal Rate of Inflation
Because of all the problems associated with inflation, the ideal rate is near zero,
but still slightly positive.
1) Some countries have had
problems with severe inflation, which
is called hyperinflation.
2) In modern U.S. history, inflation
has never been above 14%.
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Optimal Rate of Inflation
Because of all the problems associated with inflation, the ideal rate is near zero,
but still slightly positive.
1) Some countries have had
problems with severe inflation, which
is called hyperinflation.
2) In modern U.S. history, inflation
has never been above 14%.
3) Keeping inflation around 2% - 3%
avoids almost all costs of inflation.
IDEAL INFLATION
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Optimal Rate of Inflation
Because of all the problems associated with inflation, the ideal rate is near zero,
but still slightly positive.
1) Some countries have had
problems with severe inflation, which
is called hyperinflation.
2) In modern U.S. history, inflation
has never been above 14%.
3) Keeping inflation around 2% - 3%
avoids almost all costs of inflation.
4) If inflation is below 0%, it is called
deflation.
This means money
becomes more valuable over time.
Title Page
Table of Contents
Back
IDEAL INFLATION
Deflation
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Deflation
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Optimal Rate of Inflation
Because of all the problems associated with inflation, the ideal rate is near zero,
but still slightly positive.
1) Some countries have had
problems with severe inflation, which
is called hyperinflation.
2) In modern U.S. history, inflation
has never been above 14%.
3) Keeping inflation around 2% - 3%
avoids almost all costs of inflation.
4) If inflation is below 0%, it is called
deflation.
This means money
becomes more valuable over time.
IDEAL INFLATION
Deflation
Deflation
5) Deflation must be avoided since
people will not loan money if it is
better just to hold it.
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Prices Then and Now
DIRECTIONS
Each question lists an item that has been on sale for several decades, along
with an “old” price and a current price. Use your knowledge of the Consumer
Price Index (CPI) and inflation to determine if the item is cheaper or more
expensive today (in real terms).
Title Page
(a)
Complete this version if you feel you need the
teacher to work with you on this topic.
(b)
Complete this version if you feel you have a fairly
good understanding of this topic.
(c)
Complete this version if you feel this topic is easy.
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“Inflation” Learning Targets
Knowledge 5
Understand how inflation causes prices to
change over time.
Reasoning 3
Explain why a small, but positive, inflation
rate is desirable.
Skill 2
Calculate data regarding inflation.
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Resources
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiri2012.pdf: Data for CPI percentage distribution (2013)
http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet: Historical CPI data in the U.S.
http://www.imf.org/external/: Data on Argentina inflation rates
http://data.bls.gov/: Data on U.S. inflation rates
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