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Lecture (6.4.2) Table of Contents Begin Copyright © 2013 N.S. End Show Candy Auction Several pieces of candy are going to be auctioned in class today. There will be two rounds of auctioning, and four different students will be given fake money each round. Whoever offers the highest bid for each piece of candy will win it. (All bids must be rounded to the nearest full dollar amount.) RECORD DATA Record all transaction prices in the tables below. Round 1 Piece of Candy Round 2 Price Paid Piece of Candy 1) 1) 2) 2) 3) 3) 4) 5) 6) TOTAL Title Page Table of Contents Back See Sample 4) Skip Sample 6) Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Price Paid 5) TOTAL Forward Resources End Show Candy Auction Several pieces of candy are going to be auctioned in class today. There will be two rounds of auctioning, and four different students will be given fake money each round. Whoever offers the highest bid for each piece of candy will win it. (All bids must be rounded to the nearest full dollar amount.) RECORD DATA Record all transaction prices in the tables below. Round 1 Piece of Candy 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) TOTAL Title Page Table of Contents Round 2 Price Paid Piece of Candy $9 $7 1) $7 $8 $8 $9 $ 48 3) 2) 4) 5) 6) TOTAL Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Price Paid $ 14 $ 17 $ 20 $ 21 $ 13 $ 11 $ 96 Resources End Show Candy Auction MARKET BASKET When economists want to see how prices have changed over time, they use a system of calculation that utilizes a hypothetical market basket. A market basket is a set of consumer goods and services that is used to compare changing price levels over time. What six items were in our classroom’s market basket? 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Candy Auction CALCULATE THE PRICE INDEX A price index measures the cost of purchasing a market basket in a given year. The base year always has a price index of 100. (In our case the base year is Round 1.) Finding the price index for a year that is not the base year, such as Round 2, will tell us how much prices have increased or decreased since the base year. Use the following formula to calculate the price index for Round 2. Round 2 Price Index = Cost of Market Basket in Round 2 Cost of Market Basket in Base Year X 100 See Sample Skip Sample Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Candy Auction CALCULATE THE PRICE INDEX A price index measures the cost of purchasing a market basket in a given year. The base year always has a price index of 100. (In our case the base year is Round 1.) Finding the price index for a year that is not the base year, such as Round 2, will tell us how much prices have increased or decreased since the base year. Use the following formula to calculate the price index for Round 2. Round 2 Price Index = Cost of Market Basket in Round 2 Cost of Market Basket in Base Year 96 Round 2 Price Index = Round 2 Price Index = Title Page Table of Contents Back X 100 48 (2 x 100) Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. = X 100 200 Forward Resources End Show Candy Auction CALCULATE THE INFLATION RATE Now that we know the price indexes for each round, we can calculate the inflation rate. The inflation rate is the percentage change in a price index. Use the following formula to calculate the inflation rate between Round 1 and Round 2. (Remember, the “Round 1 Price Index” is equal to 100 because it is the base year.) Inflation Rate = Round 2 Price Index - Round 1 Price Index Round 1 Price Index X 100 See Sample Skip Sample Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Candy Auction CALCULATE THE INFLATION RATE Now that we know the price indexes for each round, we can calculate the inflation rate. The inflation rate is the percentage change in a price index. Use the following formula to calculate the inflation rate between Round 1 and Round 2. (Remember, the “Round 1 Price Index” is equal to 100 because it is the base year.) Inflation Rate = Round 2 Price Index - Round 1 Price Index Round 1 Price Index 200 - 100 Inflation Rate = Inflation Rate = Title Page Table of Contents 100 (1 x 100) Back = X 100 X 100 100 % Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Candy Auction CALCULATE THE INFLATION RATE Why do you think prices were higher in Round 2 than in Round 1? Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show “Inflation” Learning Targets Knowledge 5 Understand how inflation causes prices to change over time. Reasoning 3 Explain why a small, but positive, inflation rate is desirable. Skill 2 Calculate data regarding inflation. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Consumer Price Index (CPI) The most important measure of prices in the United States is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which uses a market basket for its calculations. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Consumer Price Index (CPI) The most important measure of prices in the United States is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which uses a market basket for its calculations. 1) The market basket consists of items the average family of four would purchase in a city. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Consumer Price Index (CPI) The most important measure of prices in the United States is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which uses a market basket for its calculations. 1) The market basket consists of items the average family of four would purchase in a city. 2) The base years are 1982 1984. Thus, the CPI is roughly 100 in these years. Title Page Table of Contents Back CPI Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Consumer Price Index (CPI) The most important measure of prices in the United States is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which uses a market basket for its calculations. 1) The market basket consists of items the average family of four would purchase in a city. 2) The base years are 1982 1984. Thus, the CPI is roughly 100 in these years. 3) The percentage change in the CPI is the inflation rate. Title Page Table of Contents Back Inflation CPI Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Consumer Price Index (CPI) The most important measure of prices in the United States is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which uses a market basket for its calculations. 1) The market basket consists of items the average family of four would purchase in a city. 2) The base years are 1982 1984. Thus, the CPI is roughly 100 in these years. 3) The percentage change in the CPI is the inflation rate. 4) Steep growth in the CPI (notice the 1970s) is accompanied by high inflation rates. Title Page Table of Contents Back Inflation CPI Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Causes of Inflation It is generally considered that these four events cause inflation. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Causes of Inflation It is generally considered that these four events cause inflation. 1) Money Supply Increases Prices will increase if “too many dollars are chasing too few goods.” Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Causes of Inflation It is generally considered that these four events cause inflation. 1) Money Supply Increases Prices will increase if “too many dollars are chasing too few goods.” 2) Money Demand Decreases This has the same effect as having more money in the economy. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Causes of Inflation It is generally considered that these four events cause inflation. 1) Money Supply Increases Prices will increase if “too many dollars are chasing too few goods.” 2) Money Demand Decreases This has the same effect as having more money in the economy. Draw the Graph 3) Aggregate Demand Increases When people want to buy more goods, prices will rise, which is called demand-pull inflation. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Causes of Inflation It is generally considered that these four events cause inflation. 1) Money Supply Increases Prices will increase if “too many dollars are chasing too few goods.” AS 2) Money Demand Decreases This has the same effect as having more money in the economy. AD2 3) Aggregate Demand Increases When people want to buy more goods, prices will rise, which is called demand-pull inflation. Title Page Table of Contents Back AD Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Causes of Inflation It is generally considered that these four events cause inflation. 1) Money Supply Increases Prices will increase if “too many dollars are chasing too few goods.” 2) Money Demand Decreases This has the same effect as having more money in the economy. Draw the Graph 3) Aggregate Demand Increases When people want to buy more goods, prices will rise, which is called demand-pull inflation. 4) Aggregate Supply Decreases If production costs increase in an economy, the supply decreases, which is cost-push inflation. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Causes of Inflation It is generally considered that these four events cause inflation. 1) Money Supply Increases Prices will increase if “too many dollars are chasing too few goods.” AS2 AS 2) Money Demand Decreases This has the same effect as having more money in the economy. 3) Aggregate Demand Increases When people want to buy more goods, prices will rise, which is called demand-pull inflation. AD 4) Aggregate Supply Decreases If production costs increase in an economy, the supply decreases, which is cost-push inflation. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Costs of Inflation Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally considered to have several costs associated with it. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Costs of Inflation Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally considered to have several costs associated with it. 1) Lenders and borrowers can be positively or negatively affected by unexpected inflation. See Example Skip Example Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Costs of Inflation Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally considered to have several costs associated with it. 1) Lenders and borrowers can be positively or negatively affected by unexpected inflation. Title Page Table of Contents Back • Suppose a bank charges an interest rate of 7% on a loan. The expected inflation rate is 5%. This means the bank expects to make a real profit of 2% (7% - 5%). Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Costs of Inflation Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally considered to have several costs associated with it. 1) Lenders and borrowers can be positively or negatively affected by unexpected inflation. • Suppose a bank charges an interest rate of 7% on a loan. The expected inflation rate is 5%. This means the bank expects to make a real profit of 2% (7% - 5%). • Suppose there is unexpected inflation, adding another 1% to inflation (6% total). The bank will now make a profit of just 1%. Inflation hurt the bank! Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Costs of Inflation Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally considered to have several costs associated with it. 1) Lenders and borrowers can be positively or negatively affected by unexpected inflation. • Suppose a bank charges an interest rate of 7% on a loan. The expected inflation rate is 5%. This means the bank expects to make a real profit of 2% (7% - 5%). • Suppose there is unexpected inflation, adding another 1% to inflation (6% total). The bank will now make a profit of just 1%. Inflation hurt the bank! • Borrowers, in this case, expected to pay a real interest rate of 2% (7% - 5%). Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Costs of Inflation Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally considered to have several costs associated with it. 1) Lenders and borrowers can be positively or negatively affected by unexpected inflation. • Suppose a bank charges an interest rate of 7% on a loan. The expected inflation rate is 5%. This means the bank expects to make a real profit of 2% (7% - 5%). • Suppose there is unexpected inflation, adding another 1% to inflation (6% total). The bank will now make a profit of just 1%. Inflation hurt the bank! • Borrowers, in this case, expected to pay a real interest rate of 2% (7% - 5%). • Borrowers now only pay a real interest rate of 1% instead of 2%. Borrowers won! Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Costs of Inflation Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally considered to have several costs associated with it. 1) Lenders and borrowers can be positively or negatively affected by unexpected inflation. 2) Because inflation reduces the value of money, people avoid holding it. The increased costs of transactions are shoe-leather costs. They are called shoe-leather costs because of the wear and tear on people’s shoes as they run around making numerous transactions. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Costs of Inflation Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally considered to have several costs associated with it. 1) Lenders and borrowers can be positively or negatively affected by unexpected inflation. 2) Because inflation reduces the value of money, people avoid holding it. The increased costs of transactions are shoe-leather costs. 3) Menu costs are the costs of changing prices. High inflation causes this to happen frequently. These costs include paying labor to change price tags, printing fees, and the costs of supplies for displaying prices. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Costs of Inflation Inflation does, in fact, make some people better off, but inflation is generally considered to have several costs associated with it. 1) Lenders and borrowers can be positively or negatively affected by unexpected inflation. 2) Because inflation reduces the value of money, people avoid holding it. The increased costs of transactions are shoe-leather costs. 3) Menu costs are the costs of changing prices. High inflation causes this to happen frequently. 4) Unit of account costs are when inflation makes money a less reliable unit of measurement. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Inflation and Unemployment The inflation rate and the unemployment rate are two economic indicators that are strongly connected. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Inflation and Unemployment The inflation rate and the unemployment rate are two economic indicators that are strongly connected. 1) The business cycle shows that there is a short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Inflation and Unemployment The inflation rate and the unemployment rate are two economic indicators that are strongly connected. 1) The business cycle shows that there is a short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. a) If either inflation or unemployment is high, the other is generally low. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Inflation and Unemployment The inflation rate and the unemployment rate are two economic indicators that are strongly connected. 1) The business cycle shows that there is a short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. SRPC a) If either inflation or unemployment is high, the other is generally low. b) The short-run Phillips curve graphically demonstrates this. During the 1960s this relationship seemed very simple. Notice how low rates for one variable meant high rates for the other variable. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Inflation and Unemployment The inflation rate and the unemployment rate are two economic indicators that are strongly connected. 1) The business cycle shows that there is a short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. a) If either inflation or unemployment is high, the other is generally low. b) The short-run Phillips curve graphically demonstrates this. SRPC2 2) If inflation is expected, however, the entire curve shifts upwards. SRPC1 During the 1970s it was discovered that expected inflation could effectively raise inflation rates without lowering the unemployment rate. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Inflation and Unemployment The inflation rate and the unemployment rate are two economic indicators that are strongly connected. 1) The business cycle shows that there is a short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. LRPC a) If either inflation or unemployment is high, the other is generally low. b) The short-run Phillips curve graphically demonstrates this. SRPC3 SRPC2 2) If inflation is expected, however, the entire curve shifts upwards. 3) Thus, the long-run Phillips curve is a vertical line at the natural rate of unemployment (near 6% in the U.S.). Title Page Table of Contents Back SRPC1 Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Inflation and Unemployment The inflation rate and the unemployment rate are two economic indicators that are strongly connected. 1) The business cycle shows that there is a short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. LRPC a) If either inflation or unemployment is high, the other is generally low. b) The short-run Phillips curve graphically demonstrates this. SRPC3 SRPC2 2) If inflation is expected, however, the entire curve shifts upwards. 3) Thus, the long-run Phillips curve is a vertical line at the natural rate of unemployment (near 6% in the U.S.). 4) Attempts to keep unemployment too low result in ever-increasing inflation. Title Page Table of Contents Back SRPC1 Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Controlling Inflation If inflation becomes embedded in expectations, it needs to be dealt with. This painful process of reducing expected inflation is called disinflation. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Controlling Inflation If inflation becomes embedded in expectations, it needs to be dealt with. This painful process of reducing expected inflation is called disinflation. 1) If the unemployment rate is too low, it will lead to increasing inflation. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Controlling Inflation If inflation becomes embedded in expectations, it needs to be dealt with. This painful process of reducing expected inflation is called disinflation. 1) If the unemployment rate is too low, it will lead to increasing inflation. 2) Thus, to reduce inflation, the unemployment rate must be kept above the natural rate. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Controlling Inflation If inflation becomes embedded in expectations, it needs to be dealt with. This painful process of reducing expected inflation is called disinflation. 1) If the unemployment rate is too low, it will lead to increasing inflation. 2) Thus, to reduce inflation, the unemployment rate must be kept above the natural rate. 3) High unemployment is painful, but necessary to reduce inflation. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Controlling Inflation If inflation becomes embedded in expectations, it needs to be dealt with. This painful process of reducing expected inflation is called disinflation. 1) If the unemployment rate is too low, it will lead to increasing inflation. 2) Thus, to reduce inflation, the unemployment rate must be kept above the natural rate. 3) High unemployment is painful, but necessary to reduce inflation. 4) It is possible, however, for both inflation and unemployment to be high, which is called stagflation. From 1974 - 1982 the U.S. experienced painful stagflation. Unemployment was above the natural rate (about 6%) and inflation was above the 2% - 3% target. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Controlling Inflation If inflation becomes embedded in expectations, it needs to be dealt with. This painful process of reducing expected inflation is called disinflation. 1) If the unemployment rate is too low, it will lead to increasing inflation. 2) Thus, to reduce inflation, the unemployment rate must be kept above the natural rate. 3) High unemployment is painful, but necessary to reduce inflation. 4) It is possible, however, for both inflation and unemployment to be high, which is called stagflation. 5) The tools used by policy makers to control inflation are fiscal policy and monetary policy. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Optimal Rate of Inflation Because of all the problems associated with inflation, the ideal rate is near zero, but still slightly positive. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Optimal Rate of Inflation Because of all the problems associated with inflation, the ideal rate is near zero, but still slightly positive. 1) Some countries have had problems with severe inflation, which is called hyperinflation. Yes, that is an inflation rate of 3,000%! Argentina, along with several South American countries, suffered inflation so bad that people refused to use cash in transactions. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Optimal Rate of Inflation Because of all the problems associated with inflation, the ideal rate is near zero, but still slightly positive. 1) Some countries have had problems with severe inflation, which is called hyperinflation. 2) In modern U.S. history, inflation has never been above 14%. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Optimal Rate of Inflation Because of all the problems associated with inflation, the ideal rate is near zero, but still slightly positive. 1) Some countries have had problems with severe inflation, which is called hyperinflation. 2) In modern U.S. history, inflation has never been above 14%. 3) Keeping inflation around 2% - 3% avoids almost all costs of inflation. IDEAL INFLATION Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Optimal Rate of Inflation Because of all the problems associated with inflation, the ideal rate is near zero, but still slightly positive. 1) Some countries have had problems with severe inflation, which is called hyperinflation. 2) In modern U.S. history, inflation has never been above 14%. 3) Keeping inflation around 2% - 3% avoids almost all costs of inflation. 4) If inflation is below 0%, it is called deflation. This means money becomes more valuable over time. Title Page Table of Contents Back IDEAL INFLATION Deflation Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Deflation Resources End Show Optimal Rate of Inflation Because of all the problems associated with inflation, the ideal rate is near zero, but still slightly positive. 1) Some countries have had problems with severe inflation, which is called hyperinflation. 2) In modern U.S. history, inflation has never been above 14%. 3) Keeping inflation around 2% - 3% avoids almost all costs of inflation. 4) If inflation is below 0%, it is called deflation. This means money becomes more valuable over time. IDEAL INFLATION Deflation Deflation 5) Deflation must be avoided since people will not loan money if it is better just to hold it. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Prices Then and Now DIRECTIONS Each question lists an item that has been on sale for several decades, along with an “old” price and a current price. Use your knowledge of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation to determine if the item is cheaper or more expensive today (in real terms). Title Page (a) Complete this version if you feel you need the teacher to work with you on this topic. (b) Complete this version if you feel you have a fairly good understanding of this topic. (c) Complete this version if you feel this topic is easy. Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show “Inflation” Learning Targets Knowledge 5 Understand how inflation causes prices to change over time. Reasoning 3 Explain why a small, but positive, inflation rate is desirable. Skill 2 Calculate data regarding inflation. Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show Resources http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiri2012.pdf: Data for CPI percentage distribution (2013) http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet: Historical CPI data in the U.S. http://www.imf.org/external/: Data on Argentina inflation rates http://data.bls.gov/: Data on U.S. inflation rates Title Page Table of Contents Back Last Slide Viewed Copyright © 2013 N.S. Forward Resources End Show