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Globalization, Trade, Investment, and Environment Session Objectives: Debate risks and opportunities of economic globalization Identify SD requirements for trade and investment liberalization Session Agenda Globalization overview Basic trade theory Trade liberalization WTO & environment FDI liberalization Risks/opportunities Discussions What is Globalization? “A process in which increased amounts of goods, services, investments, and financial capital move across countries.” Major International Forces Transnational corporations (TNCs) OECD governments WTO, OECD, IMF, World Bank International Mechanisms Uruguay Round, Millennium Round Multilateral Agreement on Investment Structural adjustment Policy Instruments Trade liberalization FDI liberalization Capital market liberalization Currency market liberalization Government Positions OECD countries: promote, selectively Emerging economies: embrace, selectively Less developed countries: hesitant Civil Society Concerns rise in inequality erosion of jobs and wages increased vulnerability of economies plunder of natural resources destruction of community erosion of democracy Some Figures UNDP Human Development Report 2/3 of the world’s people left out, hurt, or marginalized by globalization 24 rich countries & 12 emerging economies are benefiting from globalization 140 countries have slower growth or no growth at all 200 top TNCs account for: – 28% of world output – 70% of trade, but hire – 1% of world’s labor 6 Commandments Perspectives of some NGOs Globalization: we are in one single global market Privatization: government, hands up Liberalization: remove all barriers and obstacles to free flows of goods, services, & capital Competitiveness: be a winner, the best, & the strongest Technological innovations: restless, innovate permanently, always ahead of others Deregulation: let the invisible hand work Basic Trade Theory: Absolute Advantage - Adam Smith US cost 1 unit of coffee (C) $4 South $2 Africa cost 1 unit of wheat (W) $1 $4 Domestic TOT If external TOT is 1C = 3W 1C = 4W Buy 1C, save 1W 1C = 0.5W Sell 1C, gain 2.5W Basic Trade Theory: Comparative Advantage - David Ricardo 1 unit of wheat (W) US cost $20 South $60 Africa cost 1 unit of textiles (T) $5 Domestic TOT $10 1W = 6T 1W = 4T If external TOT is 1W = 5T Sell 1W, gain 1T Buy 1W, save 1T Traditional Arguments for Free Trade Win-win for trading partners Efficiency from specialization & competition Economy of scale: export market Technological change expands PPF Overall increase in welfare Traditional Arguments against Free Trade Job lost to foreign competitors National defense Infant industry Falling terms of trade – falling TOT in raw materials in the long run – no major innovations in primary commodities – vulnerability of economy dependent on commodities Trade Liberalization Measures Reduce or remove import duty/export tax Reduce or remove import/export restrictions Reduce or remove subsidy for export and import-substitution industries Opportunities of Trade Liberalization Increase in goods and services available for consumption - increase in welfare Jobs in export sector - poverty reduction Removal of price distortion -> efficiency Technology transfer - cleaner/upgrade More revenue for environmental investment Demand for environmental quality Risks of Trade Liberalization Inequitable distribution of trade benefits Trade-generated wealth not necessarily used to improve the environment, in time, and for all Transitional social and economic difficulties Increased scale of production magnifies externalities One-way liberalization GATT (1948) - WTO (1995) 3 objectives: help trade flow as freely as possible achieve further liberalization gradually through negotiation set up an impartial means of settling disputes 5 principles: Non-discrimination (MFN, national treatment) Freer trade Predictable policies Encourage competition Extras provisions for LDCs WTO & Environment Conflicts between WTO agreements & MEAs Non-discrimination of like-products, regardless of their production methods and processes Difficulty in biosafety negotiations IPRs over biological resources benefiting OECD countries Limited access to agricultural & textile markets in OECD countries Weak capacity of LDCs to benefit from WTO agreements/negotiations FDI Liberalization Measures Reduce or remove restrictions on FDI Increase incentives to attract FDI Allow currency convertibility Opportunities of FDI Liberalization Source of capital More jobs if labor intensive May reduce poverty if in poor areas Transfer of clean technology & standards Management skills Competition and efficiency Global market connections Risks of FDI Liberalization Often focus on manufacturing & service, little on agricultural & rural development - polarization Displacement of domestic industries - job loss Tax holidays - produce more than justified by production costs Environmental externalities SD Requirements Capital or labor intensive? Sectors for liberalized trade and FDI? Measures to mitigate transitional difficulties? Distribution of benefits? Control of externalities? Are tax holidays justified? Readiness of domestic industries for competition? Transfer of clean technology? Access to markets in OECD countries? Gains from liberalization for environmental investment?