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INTERNATIONAL FORUM OF TRAVEL AND TOURISM ADVOCATES EUROPEAN SECTION SECOND IFTTA EUROPE WORKSHOP UNIVERSITY OF BALEARIC ISLANDS Palma de Mallorca, Spain, 1-3 April 2009 THE WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATION: RESPONDING TO THE NEW CHALLENGES IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Patrice Tedjini, Chief, UNWTO Documentation Resources and Archives INTERNATIONAL TOURISM IN 2008 2008: turbulence and change of trend International Tourist Arrivals, 1995-2008* 1000 908 850 900 763 million 800 682 682 700 600 924 mn 536 570 593 610 805 702 692 633 500 400 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* Significant slowdown International Tourist Arrivals 18 2007 2008 variation over previous year (%) 16 15.3 14 12 11.3 10.5 10 8 8.5 6.9 5.2 6 4.9 3.6 4 2 4.6 1.8 1.6 0.1 0 World Europe Asia and the Pacific Americas Africa Middle East Second half on the negative Monthly evolution of worldwide international tourist arrivals % change over same month previous year 12 9.5 10 9.4 8.1 8 5.9 6 4 1.8 2 0.6 0 -2 -0.4 Easter effect -4 Jan Feb -0.7 -0.8 -2.8 March Source: World Tourism Organization April May June July Aug. Sep. -3.0 Oct. Nov . -2.3 Dec. Europe’s Performance 2008 Monthly evolution of international tourist arrivals 20 % change over same month previous year 15 10 5 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* -5 0% -10 -15 Source: World Tourism Organization Jan-June +3% July-Dec -3% Sharp reversal of trend International Tourist Arrivals variation over previous year (%) 20 17.8 Jan-June July-Dec. 15 10 5.4 6.8 6.3 3.4 5.4 5.2 4.0 5 1.1 0 -1.3 -2.5 -5 World Europe -2.8 Asia and the Pacific Americas Africa Middle East Varied subregional picture International Tourist Arrivals -4 Northern Europe Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Souther/Med Europe North-East Asia South-East Asia Oceania South Asia North Am. Caribbean Central Am. South Am. North Africa Sub-saharan Afr. Middle East -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2.7 -2.1 2007 2008 3.5 -1.2 6.2 2.6 7.0 0.6 10.6 0.4 12.3 3.6 1.7 -1.5 9.8 4.3 0.1 5.2 3.2 1.2 6.4 5.9 5.3 4.1 10.5 7.9 7.9 8.8 11.3 15.3 18 International tourism volume and receipts: in normal times growth in receipts close to growth in arrivals 11 10 international tourist arrivals international tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices) 9 Asian financial and economic crisis: expenditure grew slower % change over previous year 8 7 6 11S, SARS, economic downturn: receipts more affected 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 INTERNATIONAL TOURISM PROSPECTS FOR 2009 Concerns changed… 1st half 2008 • high commodity prices • historic high oil prices • rising inflation • high interest rates • record high euro now • financial crisis • credit squeeze • lack of confidence • global recession • unemployment International Tourist Arrivals, World 12 Forecast 2009: between -2% and 0% 10.3 10 7.8 8 6.9 5.5 Change (%) 6 4 5.6 3.8 2.9 1.8 2 0.0 0 -2 1999 *Preliminary results 2000 2001 2002 -1.4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009 International Tourism 2008 Forecast 2009 World 2% -2% to 0% Europe 0% -3% to 0% Asia and the Pacific 2% 0% to 3% Americas 4% -1% to 2% Africa 5% 1% to 4% Middle East 11% 2% to 6% When and how will recovery come… Monthly evolution of worldwide international tourist arrivals 20 % change over same month previous year 15 10 5 0 2005 2006 -5 2007 2008* 2009 length? depth? -10 -15 Source: World Tourism Organization In perspective… Tourism, economy and external shocks World, Growth of Real GDP & International Tourist Arrivals 7% a year between 2004 and 2007 12 Real GDP Tourist Arrivals % change over previous year 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 1975 Echo of second oil crisis / Falkland Islands (Malvinas) and Israel-Lebanon conflicts 1980 1985 Gulf War / disintegration of Yugoslavia 1990 1995 Asian Financial Crisis 2000 2005 11S Iraq, SARS As in previous crises… + Travel closer to home, including domestic travel; + Visiting friends and relatives (VFR), repeat visitors, special interest and independent travellers - Length of stay and expenditure + Value for money destinations (exchange rates) + Late booking + Capacity cuts + Public and private sectors cooperation UNWTO RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS A ROADMAP FOR RECOVERY UNWTO TOURISM RESILIENCE COMMITTEE (TRC) Created by the 84th session of the UNWTO Executive Council October 2008 Open to all UNWTO Full and Affiliate Members and invited key players in the tourism sector UNWTO TOURISM RESILIENCE COMMITTEE (TRC) OBJECTIVES Main objective To create a platform for Members to receive and share downturn and its impact on the tourism sector information on the current economic Specific objectives Collect and analyze economic and industry data to promote real time market monitoring Encourage the exchange of information, experience, response measures cooperation and good practice regarding UNWTO TOURISM RESILIENCE COMMITTEE (TRC) FUNCTIONING TRC meets in its full constituency TRC has a core working group composed of - ten UNWTO Full Members - six UNWTO Affiliate Members - twelve invited stakeholders (of which some are UNWTO Affiliate Members) The Working Group aims at . Giving guidance to the work of the TRC . Contributing to the documents/reports to prepare for the full meetings of the TRC UNWTO TOURISM RESILIENCE COMMITTEE (TRC) MARKET MONITORING Online market information system exclusive for Members Latest tourism results – UNWTO World Tourism Barometer Updates Source markets performance and outlook (UNWTO/ VISA /AMADEUS) Air Transport performance (Associates/BOOZ) Economic indicators for major source market UNWTO TOURISM RESILIENCE COMMITTEE (TRC) RESPONSE INFORMATION SHARING Sharing experiences on response measures and tools The TRC meetings Online information system Focal points Network Share results of related national and regional events UNWTO TOURISM RESILIENCE COMMITTEE (TRC) MEETINGS 1st Meeting – FITUR – Madrid, January 2009 2nd Meeting – ITB- Berlin, March 2009 3rd Meeting – 18th Session UNWTO General Assembly, Astana, Kazakhstan, October 2009 Thank you very much for your attention