Download Dynamic Competitive Analysis for Tourist Volume of Offshore Islands

Survey
yes no Was this document useful for you?
   Thank you for your participation!

* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project

Document related concepts

Organizational analysis wikipedia , lookup

Business model wikipedia , lookup

Transcript
Dynamic Competitive Analysis for Tourist Volume of Offshore Islands in Taiwan
羅仕京
Transportation Technology and Logistics Management
Management
[email protected]
Abstract
The existing documentary and research emphasize on the tourism resource, tourist
behavior, or continuity of natural resource of individual Taiwanese off-shore island. A
dynamic macroscopic model is proposed to forecast tourist volume for three southern
off-shore islands in Taiwan. The model, which consists of three differential equations,
is based on grey Lotka-Volterra model. In addition, five social-economic factors are
considered to describe the external effects on tourism. According to the results, model
with gross domestic product (GDP) presents the best explanation and forecasting. The
results are assessed by mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and show good
accuracy.
Keyword:offshore islands tourism, dynamic competitive, social-economic variables.