Download Analysis of the Sustainability scenarios for the Venice lagoon

Socio- Economic Scenarios for Venice and its Lagoon:
Issues of Sustainability
V. Paccagnan and M. Turvani
University IUAV of Venice
September 2008
Presentation objectives
 Provide a macro-economic picture of the Veneto
region and Venice province, to understand the socioeconomic trends in the area
 Describe scenarios elaborated for the city of Venice,
taking into account recent studies and planning
documents
 Understand how these scenarios interact with recent
socio-economic trends
Presentation outline
 The economic analysis in the WFD
 Venice and the Veneto Region: an overview
 Socio- economics scenarios
 From vision to action: the planning process and
outcomes
 Current socio-economic trends vs scenario
 Sustainability? Interplay between global and local
issues
The economic analysis in the WFD
 The WFD introduces the economic analysis in water resource
management and planning, with three purposes:
 economic analysis of water uses
 economic assessment of potential measures for reaching good
water status
 assessment of the recovery of the costs of water services
 In particular, the economic analysis of water uses should address
the following questions:
 What is the economic significance of water in the Venice lagoon?
 What are the key economic drivers influencing pressures and water
uses?
 How will these economic drivers evolve over time, and how will
they influence pressures? How will water demand and supply evolve
over time, and which problems it is likely to cause?
 We now start to address these issues…
Venice and the Veneto Region: an overview
Veneto Region
 One of the most lively areas from the economic point of
you (“locomotiva d’Italia”)
 Growth rate above national average since late 1980s, due to lira
devaluation (export led economy) and very low unemployment
rates
 Mainly traditional manufacturing industries
 Food, textile, wood, building and mechanical
 Delocalisation in the last decade in Eastern Europe to face competition
from Eastern countries and Asia (price vs. quality)
 Services are less developed with respect to other regions
 Lack of infrastructure
 Since 2000, the regional economy has experienced a slow
down, due to the changing international and domestic
demand
 Only building and tourism sectors show positive performances
Some economic figures
Evolution of GDP in Veneto and Italy (milions euro at 1995 prices)
1980
Absolut
Value
Veneto
Italy
Veneto/Italy %
1990
Absolut
Value
2000
2004
Average
Absolut Value Average
Absolut
yearly growth
yearly growth Value
rate
rate
57,540 74,788
692,772 866,555
8.3
8.6
2.6
2.2
94,153
1,015,076
9.3
2,3
1,6
Average
yearly
growth
rate
95,787
0,4
1,052,308
0,9
9.1
GDP division among productive sectors (at constant prices) in Veneto and Italy %
Veneto
Agriculture
1980
1990
2000
2004
Italy
1980
1990
2000
2004
4.9
3.5
3.4
3.3
4.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
30.2
29.9
30.2
28.3
27.5
24.7
23.9
22.7
6.1
6.3
5.3
6.0
6.6
5.8
5.0
5.3
Commerce
24.4
23.7
25.7
25.9
23.4
23.7
25.1
25,3
Financial
services
19.1
21.9
21.8
22.7
19.0
23.3
24.7
25.1
Other services
15.3
14.7
13.6
13.8
19.3
19.4
18.2
18.6
Industry
Building sector
Source: Istat
Some economic figures / 2
Employment breakdown among productive sectors in Veneto and Italy %
Veneto
Agriculture
Industry
Building sector
Commerce
Financial services
Other services
Source: Istat
1980
12.2
35.4
7.4
23.1
4.6
17.3
1990
8.1
32.7
7.1
25.1
8.1
18.9
2000
5.1
30.9
6.9
26.8
10.5
19.8
2004
4.5
29.7
7.9
26.6
11.8
19.5
Italy
1980
13.3
28.8
7.7
24.0
5.3
20.9
2004
5.2
21.3
7.3
26.7
14.1
25.4
GDP changes (%)
2001
Industry
2002
2003
2004
2005
- 2.3
- 1.6
- 1,8
2,8
- 1,0
Building sector
4.4
11.3
6,8
- 2,3
2,8
Commerce and Tourism
2.8
- 4.5
4.7
5.5
2.2
Business services
2.7
0.7
3.6
- 0.6
- 0.5
GDP
0.8
- 1.2
1.4
2.3
- 0.8
GDP per capita
0.6
- 1.6
0.1
0.9
- 1.8
Source: Banca d’Italia 2006
Venice province economy
 44 municipalities, but the city of Venice accounts for 33.5% of the total
population and 44.6% of the total number of employees
 In the Venice province some sectors with high technological development
are present:
 Chemical industry
 Aereonautical industry
 Naval dockyard
 Employment rates in the different sectors:
 Agriculture: >10% in some municipalities at the district boundaries
 Industry: > 50% in the Brenta river area
 Tourism: 10-20% in the coastal area
 Public sector: > 15% in larger town (23% in Venice)
 Employment trends from 1980s
 Decrease of jobs in industry (chemical and glass works)
 -30% textile
 Positive rates in mechanical, building and glass sector
Some economic figures
Number of firms in the Venice province and break down in economic sectors
Industry
Building sector
Commerce
Tourism activities
Transport
Finance
Other business services
School
Health Services
Other services
Firms
Source: Istat
1999
7491
8240
17822
5166
3233
975
10759
147
2177
3054
59064
2000
7512
8569
17674
5211
3217
1003
11536
171
2307
3098
60298
Employment per sector of activity (2006)
Sector
Agricolture
Industry
Of which: building
sector
Services
Total
Source: Istat
Employees
13,000
102,287
%
3.7%
29.0%
31,783
9.0%
236,732
67.2%
352,148
100.0%
2001
7418
8924
17609
5320
3197
1018
12671
185
2346
3234
61922
2002
7402
9006
17417
5289
3116
972
13503
196
2433
3223
62557
2003
7302
9236
17207
5365
3104
940
14035
213
2454
3208
63064
The districts in the Venice area
 Artistic glass in Murano
 Firms: 175 production; ~80 commercial; ~ 60 prod.+comm.
 Export: 50% of the production
 Naval dockyard
 450 firms and 1,300 employees
 Tourism district of the Venice-Treviso-Vicenza-Rovigo
provinces
 Cultural district
 300 institutions and 200 firms
 Shoe and leather district (Brenta river)
 ~ 280 firms and ~ 6,000 employees
The economy of the city of Venice
 Administrative city (region, province, municipality)
 Tourism city
 20ml visitors in the last year, with an increasing trend
 3.5ml stay overnight in the hystorical part (8ml presences)
 High proportion of one-day trippers
 Economic figures
 180€ expense per presence for tourists who stay overnight – 75€ for day
trippers
 1bn € year sales
 Industrial city
 Main activities: energy production; food; chemical; oil refinery; mechanical;
metallurgical; building materials.
 the Porto Marghera area is experiencing a deindustrialisation process, as
witnessed by the constant decrease of the number of employees
19
50
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
Tourism trend in downtown
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
ARRIVI
PRESENZE
2000000
1000000
0
Some economic figures
Employment in the Venice municipality (2001)
Economic Sector
Agriculture and Fishing
Public utilities
Chemical and extraction industry
Metallurgic
Other Industry
Building Sector
Commerce
Transport
Finance
Other services
Total
Source: Municipality of Venice
N. of
employees
760
2214
7176
9203
4983
7144
35629
17346
22262
37070
143787
Demographic changes
Residents and demographic dynamics in the Venice area between 1951 and 2006
1951
2006
2006 - 1951
Areas
v.a.
%
v.a.
% % change Average annual change (‰)
Hystorical town 174,808
55.4
61,611
21.9
-64.8
-18.8
Estuary
44,037
13.9
43,376
15.4
-1.5
-0.3
Main land
96,966
30.7 176,621
62.7
82.1
11.0
Venezia
315,811 100.0 281,608 100.0
Venice Population (1996-2006)
1996
Hystorical city
Isles
Lido-Pellestrina
Favaro
Mestre
Mestre west
Marghera
1996=100
Source: Comune di Venezia
2001
24.6
3.6
8.3
8.4
32.0
12.7
10.4
100.0
2006
24.0
3.5
8.3
8.4
32.4
13.2
10.2
96.3
22.9
3.3
8.1
8.6
32.7
13.8
10.6
94.5
Demographic changes
Resident population for age classes in Venice
1971
Venice
Hystorical
centre
Estuary
Mainland
< 14
22,6
2001
15 64
66,0
> 64
11,4
Total < 14
100,0 10,5
15 64
66,0
> 64
23,5
Total
100,0
9,7
10,6
10,8
63,5
65,2
66,7
26,8
24,2
22,5
100,0
100,0
100,0
Source: Comune di Venezia
Active and Non active population in Venice (2001)
Active
Venice
Hystorical
centre
Estuary
Mainland
Source: Comune di Venezia
Non active
Total
46.7
53.3
100.0
44.3
43.5
48.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
55.7
56.5
52.0
Recent socio-economic scenario
The Rullani and Micelli (1997) study
 Assumptions:
 Riproduction of the material base necessary to pursue
the economic development;
 Rethinking of urban identity
 4 scenarios
 “intertial growth”
 “radical environmentalism”
 “metropolitan integration”
 “transition to postfordism”
Inertial growth
 Tourism specialisation
 Decrease of some services’ provision (esp. PA)
 Increase of commercial activities linked with tourism
 Isolation of the hystorical city and integration of the
mainland with the provinces of Treviso and Padova
 Concentration of Administrative functions in the
mainland
 Closure of the Porto Marghera industry and setting
up of small industries in the area
Radical environmentalism
 Environmental protection becomes a priority in the




agenda setting
Development of environmental service industry (e.g.
waste treatment and disposal)
Closing down of the refinery
Limitations on waterborne transport in the lagoon
Increase of number of eco-tourists in the Venice
lagoon
Metropolitan integration & postfordist city
 Integration of the city of Venice with the mainland
 Increase the accessibility of the city
 Metro
 Port
 Specialisation of the different area of the city
 Marghera -> productive site
 Mestre -> bridge town, with the setting up of
commercial and directional centres
 Venice -> “immaterial” production
 Focus on knowledge economy
 Enter in global network
The METIS project (Indovina, 2003)
 Objectives:
 to built possible (feasible) scenarios for the Venice lagoon
 to increase the available information about the prospective development
of the Venice community
 Methodology: analysis of recent trends and scoping interviews.
 What kind of scenarios are we thinking of?
 Likely scenarios: future development of the present conditions, imagined
by considering the actual situations and trends (no innovation)
 Scenario 0: “tourism monoculture”
 Possible scenarios: future development of present conditions, provided
that some element of innovation is introduced.
 Scenario 1: City of sustainable development; administrative, university and
culture centre
 Scenario 2: Environmental protection as a resource
 Scenario 3: Metropolitan city
Scenario 0: “tourism monoculture”
 Improvement of the accomodation capacity of the hystorical town
 Change of use for buildings
 Increase of real estate prices
 Limited availability for local residents
 Improvement of the accomodation capacity in the mainland (Mestre and
Marghera)
 Actually 60% of tourist presences stay in the mainland
 Increase of the public areas occupied by the restaurant
 30,000 seats current available
 Price increases
 Modification of the commercial structure of the city
 Shops are thought for the tourists and not for the residents
 Relocation of other economic activities
 Limited availability of space for commercial activities and increasing rent
 Preferences for the Piazzale Roma area
 Transfer of administrative activities in the mainland
 Maintenance of University
 Escape of the local residents
Scenario 1: City of sustainable development;
administrative, university and culture centre
 Tourism would continue to be an important part of
the economic activities in the hystorical town but will
be more compatible with alternative economic
activities.
 Actions
 Programming turistic arrivals and available services
 Improve the quality of local handicraft to help it becoming a
substitute for low quality souvenirs
 Improve the quality in the research and teaching activities in
Venice Universities and boost international relationships
 Improve cultural offer
 Stop residential escape by improving service provision and
accessibility
Scenario 2: Environmental protection as a
resource
 Environmental problems should be considered as
an opportunity to increase the knowledge and
human capital of the area
 Actions
 Increase city openess towards technological
development and new works
 Increasing the coordination of research activities
concerning the Venice lagoon
 Strenghten of existing research activities
 Clean up of the Marghera site
Scenario 3: Metropolitan city
 Institutional innovation: consider Venice problems
in a wide area perspective, by emphasising the
relationships of the hystorical city with the
sorrounding environment
 Actions:
 Institution of the metropolitan city
 Clean up of Marghera site
 Reusing of former industrial site location
 Accessibility and transport
From vision to action: the planning
process and outcomes
Planning processes around the Venice Lagoon
 Venice municipality: a bunch of planning
instruments
 Strategic Plan (2004-2014)
 Plan for the management of the territory (under
definition)
 Supra-municipal level: planning instruments in
search of coordination
 Plans for Venice, Treviso and Padova districts (under
definition)
 Regional Territorial Plan (under definition)
Scenario definition
 The Strategic Plan (2004) identifies several
strategic lines, to be developed in parallel in
further action







International city
City of Culture
City of waters
City of tourism
City of research and innovation
City of logistics
City of production and services
 No specific action is however foreseen in the plan
SP: City of waters
 Water as the focal point for the development of the
whole territory
 Policy actions:
 Safeguard water systems
 Boost productive activities which use water as an input;
 Use the intervention of the Venice lagoon safeguard as a
mean to incentivate the research and development on these
issues;
 Improve the mobility on water through the research in new
technologies
 Rebuilt the cultural identity linked to water
SP: City of tourism
 Need to improve the quality of tourism offer and demand
 Policy actions:
 Promote tourism itinerary on the mainland and in Venice
 Promote new forms of tourism (sport tourism, ecotourism)
to develop the potentiality of the mainland
 Improve knowledge of tourism patterns so as to manage
tourist arrivals
 Improve logistics
SP: City of production and services
 Porto Marghera is interested by a phase of industrial
restructuring, where the decline in hystorical
industrial production has to be matched with
environmental restoration of contaminated sites
 Policy actions
 Revitalise the industrial production
 Implement the actions foreseen in the Framework Agreement for
Chemical Production (1999-2001- 2005- 2007)
 Favour the setting of new industrial activities
 Complete the process of environmental restoration through
contaminated sites clean up (Porto Marghera, S. Giuliano
Park, previously a industrial and city landfill)
 Favour other kind economic activities different from the
industrial ones, so as to favour the handicraft.
Current socio-economic trends vs
Scenario
The controversy on fishing activities
 Fishing activities in the Venice lagoon can be divided into
two categories, the traditional fishing activities (extensive
aquaculture and cultivation of soft crab) and the
commercial ones (with the introduction of the clam).
 Fishing licences:
 90 traditional fishermen
 1,200 professional fishermen
 In recent years a conflict emerged between these two
categories, since the mechanical fishing of tapes is
increasing and this influences negatively the catch of soft
crab, because of the impact on ecosystem functioning.
 Economic value of fishing activities is increasing
Fish catching in the Venice lagoon
and its commercial value
Table 1 – Fish catching in the Venice lagoon in 2007 (quintals) and % variation with respect to 2006
Venice
Chioggia
Total Venice
Total Veneto
Fish
18,468
83,477
101,945
167,094
-13
18
11.9
Mollusc
21,417
25,023
46,440
199,735
24.7
68.5
16.7
Shellfish
5,794
3,242
9,036
13,034
-2.7
20.7
4.2
Source: Bordin (2007)
Table 2 – Commercial value of fish catching in the Venice lagoon in 2007 (thousands of Euro) and %
variation with respect to 2006
Venice
Chioggia
Total Venice
Total Veneto
Fish
9,286
16,551
25,837
33,751
-3.6
4.7
0.6
Mollusc
8,566
8,393
16,959
56,028
19.7
39.0
17.1
Shellfish
5,208
2,800
8,008
10,292
Source: Bordin (2007)
Bordin (2007) in The state of Veneto Region, 2006, Unioncamere
12.1
49.5
23.3
Industrial activities
 Restructuring of industrial production led by local and global





factors
A parallel decrease in the pollution loads entailed by such
activities due to slow down and regulation. However, the
burden of past contamination has driven the setting up of
policy interventions in the last ten years.
Remediation becomes an ‘industry’ of its own
The economic structure in the area is experiencing a
transition phase where traditional industrial activities retreat in
favour of service activities.
On the whole, the increase in the economic activities and
employees has been registered only in the energy, oil and
refinery sector, in the building materials and in “other sectors”.
The chemical sector is showing the highest uncertainty for the
future.
Economic activities in the Marghera area (2006)
Economic
sector
Number of
activities
Increase with
respect to 2000
Number of
employees
Increase with
respect to 2000
Energy
production
7
+2
579
425
Food
4
-3
128
-594
Building
Materials
13
+6
686
+97
Chemical
11
-5
1.954
-1385
Mechanical
45
-1
2.143
-239
Metallurgical
10
=
921
-336
Oil refinery
13
+1
559
+76
Other sectors
258
+72
6302
+2501
Total
361
+72
13272
+545
Source: Own elaborations on data provided by Ufficio di Piano
What future for economic activities?
 aluminium, development of new alloys suitable to be employed in the
aerospace industry;
 shipyards, the acquisitions of the areas devoted to the cruise ship
management;
 port activities and logistics, with
 the enlargement of docks in the Marghera area and the excavation of the canals
to the current -10.50m depth to -12m.
 the port area will be enlarged.
 hydrogen application to transport activities. In 2003, the Hydrogen Park has
been set up to study and promote the development of the application of
fuel cells. Its objectives are the development of an energy generation
system (by using the hydrogen) and the application to this technology to a
ferry (vaporetto).
 energy production, through the storage of biodiesel in the area close to the
Enel power plant.
 research and technological innovation, through the creation of the VEGA
scientific-technological park in 1996.
 environmental monitoring and restoration, by cleaning up the contaminated
area in Marghera and by managing the contaminated sludge obtained by the
Vallone Moranzani dredging.
Policy documents in Marghera: the setting up of
‘remediation as an ‘industry’
 Framework of voluntary agreement for the Chemical industry
(“Accordo per la Chimica”) –1999
 Participants: several Ministers, local authorities (Veneto Region, Province
and Municipality of Venice, Venice Port Authority), the main enterprises
and trade unions operating in this area
 Objective: to continue industrial production whilst reducing
environmental pollution in the Porto Marghera area and adopting the
best available technologies in the local polluting industries
 Voluntary agreement Porto Marghera “Intesa per Porto
Marghera” – 2005
 Objectives: to complete the cleanup of Porto Marghera site whilst
assuring at the same time the coherence with the planning instruments
of the area
 It boost the environmental restoration of the area whilst recognising the
importance of cleaning current industrial activities (e.g. chemical sector)
and promoting the settlement of new green industry
 “Protocollo di intesa su Porto Marghera” – 2006
 Concerns the Chemical Industry
Master Plan – 2004
 It foresees a set of policy measures necessary to attain the
objectives stated in the Voluntary Agreement:
 clean up of the contaminated sites in the Porto Marghera area;
 increase of the knowledge base regarding the extent of contamination;
 research activities regarding the application of available technologies on
the treatment of contaminated materials
 improvement of landscape.
 For what concerns the clean up of contaminated sites, the Plan
identifies priority interventions, to be completed by 2014 and
other measures for which no sufficient knowledge is available,
and that will be carried out afterwards
Port activities: a summary
 The area is interested by Port related activities. In 2006, the
Port of Venice has transported almost 17 million tonnes of
goods: of these, more than 11 millions are related to
commercial goods, being the remaining industrial intermediate
goods.
 The transportation of these goods has produced more than
7,000 transits in the Venice lagoon.
 Port activities are highly constrained by the features of the
lagoon, such as: the canal depth that limits the transit of big
ships; the need to limit the waves (moto ondoso) in the lagoon;
the maintenance and cleaning of the lagoon canals, and the
consequent problem of the contaminated sediments; the lack
of adequate logistic infrastructures.
Port of Venice Figures
Year
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2006
Commercial
Industrial
4.865
4.751
6.142
7.363
9.436
10.305
14.541
9.190
8.504
6.780
6.445
5.392
7.290
5.033
Oil
Total
10.116
11.252
9.947
10.458
11.913
10.581
11.361
24.171
24.507
22.869
24.266
26.741
28.176
30.936
%
commercial
20,2
19,4
26,9
29,7
34,6
36,6
47
Source: Venice Port Authority (2006)
In the last 10 years:
• +27% of the amount of traffic in the Port of Venice
• of this, +65% of commercial traffic
Recent trends:
• concentration of the commercial traffic in the Porto Marghera area;
• use of Maritime station for the passenger traffic;
• use of former industrial area for commercial docks
Tourism
 General patterns
 Conflict between the actual tourism development and the desired level
of environmental quality
 Problem of the quality of tourism demand (one day travellers and
excursionist accounts for 60% of the tourist presences)
 Benefits for a wide areas but costs concentrated in the
hystoric city
 Congestion
 Increase in prices in the hystorical city and closure of activities not
linked to the tourism activities
 Impact on the environment (waste production, water pollution, increase
of waterborne traffic)
 Problem of managing tourist demand and shift towards a high
quality provision of touristic attractions
Sustainability? : interplay between global
and local issues
 Global vs Local scenarios: what room for manouvre?
 Price vs quality: what socio-economic consequences




across all sectors?
Trend in regulatory action: tightening or loosing?
Trend in institutional developments: which level for
which decision? (No Metropolitan)
Trends in demographic and labor markets expected
behavioral responses?
Trends in consumer preferences for private and public
goods?
Sustainability? Interplay between global
and local issues
 Sectoral sustainability issues and intersections:








coherence or conflict?
Tourism and the Lagoon carrying capacity ?
Fishing ?
Accessibility and the Port?
The Chemical production?
Culture industry?
Science & technology?
The University in Venice and in Veneto?
The environmental sustainability : a glass ceiling for the
growth of the economy?